Question: My family and I originally moved to Dubai on what we thought would be a three-year plan. Nearly a decade later, we’re still here, our children are in school, our careers are established and we’ve built a full life here. We’re now debating whether to keep renting or finally buy a home. I'm curious to know your thoughts on what has been going on in our heads for a while now. Has Dubai shifted from being a short-term posting destination to a place where people genuinely want to settle long term? AA, Dubai
Answer: This question captures one of the most significant transformations I’ve witnessed in Dubai’s property market since I arrived in Dubai in 2008.
Dubai has evolved decisively from a short-term relocation hub into a long-term lifestyle destination. What once attracted people primarily for career progression and tax efficiency is now complemented by world-class health care, high-quality education, excellent infrastructure, political stability, personal safety and an increasingly strong sense of community. These factors are encouraging families and professionals not just to stay longer, but to plant genuine roots. The shift is clearly reflected in housing behaviour.
Ten years ago, most expatriates preferred centrally located apartments close to business districts, prioritising commute convenience over space and lifestyle. Today, many residents are choosing larger homes in well-planned communities, focusing on long-term family living rather than short-term rental flexibility.
This is evident in the sustained demand for villa and townhouse communities such as Dubai Hills Estate, Arabian Ranches 1, 2 and 3, Damac Hills, Tilal Al Ghaf, Mudon, Emirates Living (The Springs), Jumeirah Golf Estates, Serena, Town Square and Dubai South. These neighbourhoods offer exactly what long-term residents value most: green open spaces, schools, healthcare access, retail centres, walking trails, leisure facilities and a strong community environment.
Families who once rented city-centre apartments in areas like Dubai Marina or Downtown are now actively relocating to these communities in search of space, lifestyle and long-term value. In many cases, they are transitioning from tenants into homeowners, reflecting a mindset shift from temporary living to permanent settlement.
This long-term outlook is also reinforced by the rapid growth of Dubai’s private education sector, expansion of healthcare infrastructure, and continued investment in transport networks, including road upgrades and the metro extensions, not forgetting the imminent arrival of Etihad Rail, all hallmarks of a city planning for permanent population growth rather than transient residency.
Importantly, this structural change has profound implications for the property market. Demand driven by long-term end users is far more stable and resilient than demand driven purely by short-term investors. It provides depth, sustainability and protection against sudden corrections. This is a key reason why the Dubai’s property market has remained in growth even when other global cities have slowed.
Dubai today is no longer simply a stepping stone in people’s careers, for a growing proportion of residents, it is home and as that mindset continues to strengthen, it will remain one of the most powerful long-term drivers of the housing demand, particularly in family-orientated communities.
Q: I’ve invested in Dubai property over the past several years and have benefitted from the strong price growth that followed. But as the market becomes more established and competition increases, I’m concerned that it may not be as easy to pick winners going forward. What will really separate successful investors from disappointed ones as Dubai’s property market matures? RG, Sharjah
A: This is a very timely and insightful question, because I believe that Dubai is now transitioning from a rapid growth phase into a far more sophisticated and selective market cycle.
During strong upwards cycles, broad-based price growth tends to mask differences in asset quality. What seems to happen is almost everything rises, which can give the impression that all investments perform equally well. But as markets mature, performance becomes far more segmented. Location, quality, infrastructure, community development and long-term demand fundamentals begin to matter far more. Going forward, successful investors will increasingly distinguish themselves through disciplined decision-making rather than speculative timing.
The most resilient investments will typically share several common traits: proximity to employment hubs, established transport connectivity, strong community infrastructure, high-quality construction, practical layouts and access to lifestyle amenities such as retail, schools, healthcare and green spaces. It is these factors that directly influence rental demand, tenant retention and long-term resale value. For example, well-established and well-connected communities such as Dubai Marina, Downtown Dubai, Dubai Hills Estate, Palm Jumeirah, Jumeirah Village Circle, Arabian Ranches, Business Bay and emerging urban districts like Jumeirah Garden City and Dubai Land Residential Complex are far more likely to retain consistent demand than fringe locations that rely purely on price or marketing hype.
Investor strategy will also need to evolve. Rather than chasing headline returns or early-stage launches with unrealistic expectations, the focus should shift towards income stability, tenant quality and long-term capital appreciation. As price growth moderates, rental yield, occupancy rates and asset durability will play a larger role in determining total returns. Another key differentiator will be developer selection. As supply volumes increase, buyers will increasingly favour projects delivered by developers with strong construction standards, reliable handover timelines, proven community management and consistent build quality. Projects that fall short in these areas may struggle to compete, even in otherwise strong locations.
I believe that successful investors need to think long-term. Dubai’s evolution into a permanent lifestyle destination is generating sustained housing demand, but the strongest returns will accrue to those who understand market cycles, avoid emotional decisions and build balanced portfolios aligned with population growth, employment clusters and infrastructure expansion.
I've said before that Dubai is no longer a market where success is driven by momentum alone. The next phase will reward strategy, research, patience and quality selection. Those who approach investment thoughtfully will continue to prosper, while those relying on hype and short-term speculation may find results far less rewarding.
The opinions expressed do not constitute legal advice and are provided for information only. Please send any questions to mario@allegiance.ae
