Could Bitcoin price hit record $100,000 as Trump election win raises market expectations?

The largest cryptocurrency has been soaring and hit a record high of $81,899

Bitcoin has added about 93 per cent so far in 2024, helped by robust demand for dedicated US exchange-traded funds and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Reuters

Bitcoin soared to a record high above $81,000 on Monday on expectations that cryptocurrencies will thrive in a favourable regulatory environment following the election of Donald Trump as the next US president and the prospect of a Congress featuring pro-crypto lawmakers.

The world’s biggest cryptocurrency has now more than doubled from the year’s low of $38,505 and was trading at $81,224 at 9.20am UAE time on Monday, having earlier touched a record high of $81,899. The largest token climbed as much as 6.1 per cent on Sunday.

Bullish sentiment lifted smaller coins too, including Dogecoin, a meme-crowd favourite promoted by Trump supporter Elon Musk, which hit a three-year high. Second-ranked token Ether rose above $3,200 for the first time in over three months on Monday.

“Bitcoin is rallying on optimism that the Trump administration will be supportive of cryptocurrencies and digital assets. The bulls are eyeing the $100,000 level as we are back to uncharted territory and that’s the next psychological target,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

Mr Trump’s decisive victory in the US presidential election has prompted celebration among the digital asset industry, which spent more than $100 million backing crypto-friendly candidates. The former president embraced digital assets during his campaign, promising to make the US the “crypto capital of the planet” and to accumulate a national stockpile of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has added about 93 per cent so far in 2024, helped by robust demand for dedicated US exchange-traded funds and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The ETFs, powered by BlackRock’s $35 billion iShares Bitcoin Trust, posted a record daily net inflow of almost $1.4 billion on Thursday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A day earlier, the iShares ETF’s trading volume jumped to an all-time peak.

Mr Trump also unveiled a new crypto business, World Liberty Financial in September, and investors have taken his personal interest in the sector as a friendly signal.

Eric Trump, one of the president-elect’s sons and executive vice president of his private conglomerate, The Trump Organisation, is a keynote speaker at the Bitcoin Mena conference in Abu Dhabi next month, according to the event organisers.

Bitcoin prices are expected to be heading higher as many key technical indicators are giving bullish signals, said Arun Leslie John, chief market analyst at Century Financial.

“After breaking above its previous all-time-high level of $73,794 set earlier this year, the cryptocurrency rose up to $81,888. A break above this level could mean prices testing the next key psychological resistance level of $82,000. If prices rally past this level, key Fibonacci extension levels could be tested at $83,000 and $85,267,” he added.

“With Mr Trump’s pro-crypto stance, headwinds for prices could potentially turn into tailwinds, with some analysts expecting prices to reach up to $100,000 in the short to medium term.”

Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said more greed was creeping into the market, with traders becoming bolder because they believe it is no longer about Bitcoin hitting $100,000, but about crossing the $150,000 mark. Many traders believe this target could be reached by the first quarter of next year, he added.

"The crypto community believes that the game has totally changed for Bitcoin with President Trump taking the office back. For them, now Bitcoin has the real shot of becoming the ultimate digital gold," he said. "In addition, the days may not be that far when Bitcoin may begin to sit on the balance sheet of the government as a part of a reserve digital currency."

The US government deficit has been a major concern for both parties, with the deficit rising 8 per cent in the 2024 fiscal year to $1.8 trillion. Further tax cuts promised by Mr Trump during his campaign could add to this deficit, potentially weakening the dollar over time, Mr Aslam said.

“For many, Bitcoin is a hedge against currency devaluation and inflation, as it operates outside of traditional monetary policy constraints. With Mr Trump’s win, the conditions may be right for Bitcoin’s price to continue its ascent as investors seek alternatives to the dollar,” he added.

Stocks, dollar and Bitcoin rise on early Trump lead

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Mr Aslam said the post-election surges in Bitcoin have also tended to coincide with shifts in Fed policy. With a newly elected government, investors often expect changes in monetary policy direction.

“In the current scenario, market participants are eyeing the potential for further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could further fuel Bitcoin’s appeal. Lower interest rates generally weaken the dollar, making assets like Bitcoin and gold more attractive as stores of value.”

Other cryptocurrencies have also recorded strong rallies. Among the top 10 coins by market cap, the most impressive performance over the past seven days has been for Dogecoin, followed by Cardano and Ethereum, Mr Aslam said. Solana has also performed well, looking at sales gains in the past seven days.

"When trading altcoins, especially the top 10 by market cap, it is important to keep an eye on the performance of these coins over seven days and compare that performance with the second-biggest coin by market cap, and that is Ethereum," Mr Aslam added.