Markets have sewn up June in bullish fashion, capping a strong first half of 2023 in style.
For the fourth consecutive month, June saw gains aplenty in US equities – with the S&P 500 rising by 6 per cent to take its year-to-date gains above 15 per cent.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq index saw similar gains last month and is now up more than 38 per cent on the year.
With so much of the recent fundamentals driven by a slowing US inflation story and a resilient US jobs market, the risk-on mood has never been higher this year.
Just last week, the Price Consumption Expenditures price index – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation – came in below analysts’ estimates and sparked expectations that there may be as little as two remaining rate hikes left in 2023, with the next hike almost all but delivered at the upcoming meeting in July.
US jobs, starting with weekly jobless claims and filtering through to the monthly US non-farm payrolls report, continue to show a hot labour market, which amid the backdrop of the slowing inflation story, suggests markets are now seeing recessionary threats receding.
All these factors have contributed to solid green arrows across riskier asset classes – and July will be key to gauging how realistic and sustainable the gains will be.
It’s been a shortened trading week as a result of the US Independence Day celebrations, but we will have some key pieces of data in the lead-up to the next Fed meeting this month.
It starts with this Friday’s US jobs report. June payrolls are expected to grow by 225,000 (versus 339,000 in May), while the overall unemployment rate is anticipated at 3.7 per cent. Annual growth in average hourly earnings, a decent gauge on US inflation, is expected to slow to 4.2 per cent, compared with 4.3 per cent in May.
I expect some gains in the labour market, which would suggest the resilience in new jobs added to continue.
Short term, this will be supportive of equities and riskier assets on the day. However, with eyes on the next Fed meeting, to be held on July 25-26, this will further entrench the notion that employment is still running hot and the Fed would be more comfortable with overall unemployment to be in excess of 4 per cent.
The next key piece of data before the Fed convenes and announces rates on July 26 is the US consumer price inflation print, due on July 12. Year on year, the CPI increased by 4 per cent in May, while core prices rose by 5.3 per cent annually.
Keep a close eye on how these numbers pan out – clearly inflation is not cooling fast enough – and if we see prints close to the May figures, this could see a slight hawkish tilt, with more caution in the Fed announcement.
These two pieces of data are critical to the Fed’s decision. Currently, the CME FedWatch tool has an 89.9 per cent probability that the Fed will deliver another 25 basis-point hike to take overall rates in the US to a band of 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent.
While this is almost a certainty, dissecting their comments – especially with the two data points discussed earlier having been released – will help gauge price action through the end of July and August.
It is my expectation that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will remain cautious and he should keep the door open to leaving policy tools on the cards in case inflation doesn’t recede as quick as expectations to their target 2 per cent range.
With the end of the second quarter in the books, earnings season is set to kick off this Friday, with the usual banking giants JP Morgan, Citibank and Wells Fargo set to announce. Tech majors Microsoft, Google, Facebook and Amazon will follow with their results from July 25.
Markets are currently positioning for an anaemic reporting season. Following an average fall of 2 per cent in earnings per share for the S&P 500 during the first quarter, the EPS losses are expected to exacerbate in the second quarter, with some expecting to see drops of more than 5 per cent when compared with the same period last year.
While the negative story around EPS and slowing revenues are largely priced in, it will be more critical to pay attention to what these companies have to say about future guidance.
Gaurav Kashyap is risk manager at Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers
Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
The%20specs
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Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
The%20specs
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Bert van Marwijk factfile
Born: May 19 1952
Place of birth: Deventer, Netherlands
Playing position: Midfielder
Teams managed:
1998-2000 Fortuna Sittard
2000-2004 Feyenoord
2004-2006 Borussia Dortmund
2007-2008 Feyenoord
2008-2012 Netherlands
2013-2014 Hamburg
2015-2017 Saudi Arabia
2018 Australia
Major honours (manager):
2001/02 Uefa Cup, Feyenoord
2007/08 KNVB Cup, Feyenoord
World Cup runner-up, Netherlands
Results
%3Cp%3EStage%204%3A%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Juan%20Sebastian%20Molano%20(COL)%20Team%20UAE%20Emirates%20%E2%80%93%203hrs%2050min%2001sec%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Olav%20Kooij%20(NED)%20Jumbo-Visma%20%E2%80%93%20ST%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Sam%20Welsford%20(AUS)%20Team%20DSM)%20%E2%80%93%20ST%0D%3Cbr%3EGeneral%20Classification%3A%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lucas%20Plapp%20(AUS)%20Ineos%20Grenaders%20%E2%80%93%207%E2%80%B3%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Pello%20Bilbao%20(ESP)%20Bahrain%20Victorious%20%E2%80%93%2011%E2%80%B3%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey'
Rating: 3/5
Directors: Ramin Bahrani, Debbie Allen, Hanelle Culpepper, Guillermo Navarro
Writers: Walter Mosley
Stars: Samuel L Jackson, Dominique Fishback, Walton Goggins
Need to know
Unlike other mobile wallets and payment apps, a unique feature of eWallet is that there is no need to have a bank account, credit or debit card to do digital payments.
Customers only need a valid Emirates ID and a working UAE mobile number to register for eWallet account.
The biog
Age: 59
From: Giza Governorate, Egypt
Family: A daughter, two sons and wife
Favourite tree: Ghaf
Runner up favourite tree: Frankincense
Favourite place on Sir Bani Yas Island: “I love all of Sir Bani Yas. Every spot of Sir Bani Yas, I love it.”
Most%20polluted%20cities%20in%20the%20Middle%20East
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MOST%20POLLUTED%20COUNTRIES%20IN%20THE%20WORLD
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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A%20QUIET%20PLACE
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New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
11 cabbie-recommended restaurants and dishes to try in Abu Dhabi
Iqbal Restaurant behind Wendy’s on Hamdan Street for the chicken karahi (Dh14)
Pathemari in Navy Gate for prawn biryani (from Dh12 to Dh35)
Abu Al Nasar near Abu Dhabi Mall, for biryani (from Dh12 to Dh20)
Bonna Annee at Navy Gate for Ethiopian food (the Bonna Annee special costs Dh42 and comes with a mix of six house stews – key wet, minchet abesh, kekel, meser be sega, tibs fir fir and shiro).
Al Habasha in Tanker Mai for Ethiopian food (tibs, a hearty stew with meat, is a popular dish; here it costs Dh36.75 for lamb and beef versions)
Himalayan Restaurant in Mussaffa for Nepalese (the momos and chowmein noodles are best-selling items, and go for between Dh14 and Dh20)
Makalu in Mussaffa for Nepalese (get the chicken curry or chicken fry for Dh11)
Al Shaheen Cafeteria near Guardian Towers for a quick morning bite, especially the egg sandwich in paratha (Dh3.50)
Pinky Food Restaurant in Tanker Mai for tilapia
Tasty Zone for Nepalese-style noodles (Dh15)
Ibrahimi for Pakistani food (a quarter chicken tikka with roti costs Dh16)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The past winners
2009 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2010 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2011 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
2012 - Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus)
2013 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2014 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2015 - Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
2016 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2017 - Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)
Top financial tips for graduates
Araminta Robertson, of the Financially Mint blog, shares her financial advice for university leavers:
1. Build digital or technical skills: After graduation, people can find it extremely hard to find jobs. From programming to digital marketing, your early twenties are for building skills. Future employers will want people with tech skills.
2. Side hustle: At 16, I lived in a village and started teaching online, as well as doing work as a virtual assistant and marketer. There are six skills you can use online: translation; teaching; programming; digital marketing; design and writing. If you master two, you’ll always be able to make money.
3. Networking: Knowing how to make connections is extremely useful. Use LinkedIn to find people who have the job you want, connect and ask to meet for coffee. Ask how they did it and if they know anyone who can help you. I secured quite a few clients this way.
4. Pay yourself first: The minute you receive any income, put about 15 per cent aside into a savings account you won’t touch, to go towards your emergency fund or to start investing. I do 20 per cent. It helped me start saving immediately.
Mobile phone packages comparison
