Markets have sewn up June in bullish fashion, capping a strong first half of 2023 in style.
For the fourth consecutive month, June saw gains aplenty in US equities – with the S&P 500 rising by 6 per cent to take its year-to-date gains above 15 per cent.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq index saw similar gains last month and is now up more than 38 per cent on the year.
With so much of the recent fundamentals driven by a slowing US inflation story and a resilient US jobs market, the risk-on mood has never been higher this year.
Just last week, the Price Consumption Expenditures price index – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation – came in below analysts’ estimates and sparked expectations that there may be as little as two remaining rate hikes left in 2023, with the next hike almost all but delivered at the upcoming meeting in July.
US jobs, starting with weekly jobless claims and filtering through to the monthly US non-farm payrolls report, continue to show a hot labour market, which amid the backdrop of the slowing inflation story, suggests markets are now seeing recessionary threats receding.
All these factors have contributed to solid green arrows across riskier asset classes – and July will be key to gauging how realistic and sustainable the gains will be.
It’s been a shortened trading week as a result of the US Independence Day celebrations, but we will have some key pieces of data in the lead-up to the next Fed meeting this month.
It starts with this Friday’s US jobs report. June payrolls are expected to grow by 225,000 (versus 339,000 in May), while the overall unemployment rate is anticipated at 3.7 per cent. Annual growth in average hourly earnings, a decent gauge on US inflation, is expected to slow to 4.2 per cent, compared with 4.3 per cent in May.
I expect some gains in the labour market, which would suggest the resilience in new jobs added to continue.
Short term, this will be supportive of equities and riskier assets on the day. However, with eyes on the next Fed meeting, to be held on July 25-26, this will further entrench the notion that employment is still running hot and the Fed would be more comfortable with overall unemployment to be in excess of 4 per cent.
The next key piece of data before the Fed convenes and announces rates on July 26 is the US consumer price inflation print, due on July 12. Year on year, the CPI increased by 4 per cent in May, while core prices rose by 5.3 per cent annually.
Keep a close eye on how these numbers pan out – clearly inflation is not cooling fast enough – and if we see prints close to the May figures, this could see a slight hawkish tilt, with more caution in the Fed announcement.
These two pieces of data are critical to the Fed’s decision. Currently, the CME FedWatch tool has an 89.9 per cent probability that the Fed will deliver another 25 basis-point hike to take overall rates in the US to a band of 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent.
While this is almost a certainty, dissecting their comments – especially with the two data points discussed earlier having been released – will help gauge price action through the end of July and August.
It is my expectation that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will remain cautious and he should keep the door open to leaving policy tools on the cards in case inflation doesn’t recede as quick as expectations to their target 2 per cent range.
With the end of the second quarter in the books, earnings season is set to kick off this Friday, with the usual banking giants JP Morgan, Citibank and Wells Fargo set to announce. Tech majors Microsoft, Google, Facebook and Amazon will follow with their results from July 25.
Markets are currently positioning for an anaemic reporting season. Following an average fall of 2 per cent in earnings per share for the S&P 500 during the first quarter, the EPS losses are expected to exacerbate in the second quarter, with some expecting to see drops of more than 5 per cent when compared with the same period last year.
While the negative story around EPS and slowing revenues are largely priced in, it will be more critical to pay attention to what these companies have to say about future guidance.
Gaurav Kashyap is risk manager at Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers
MATCH INFO
Arsenal 1 (Aubameyang 12’) Liverpool 1 (Minamino 73’)
Arsenal win 5-4 on penalties
Man of the Match: Ainsley Maitland-Niles (Arsenal)
Premier Futsal 2017 Finals
Al Wasl Football Club; six teams, five-a-side
Delhi Dragons: Ronaldinho
Bengaluru Royals: Paul Scholes
Mumbai Warriors: Ryan Giggs
Chennai Ginghams: Hernan Crespo
Telugu Tigers: Deco
Kerala Cobras: Michel Salgado
Recent winners
2002 Giselle Khoury (Colombia)
2004 Nathalie Nasralla (France)
2005 Catherine Abboud (Oceania)
2007 Grace Bijjani (Mexico)
2008 Carina El-Keddissi (Brazil)
2009 Sara Mansour (Brazil)
2010 Daniella Rahme (Australia)
2011 Maria Farah (Canada)
2012 Cynthia Moukarzel (Kuwait)
2013 Layla Yarak (Australia)
2014 Lia Saad (UAE)
2015 Cynthia Farah (Australia)
2016 Yosmely Massaad (Venezuela)
2017 Dima Safi (Ivory Coast)
2018 Rachel Younan (Australia)
What is graphene?
Graphene is extracted from graphite and is made up of pure carbon.
It is 200 times more resistant than steel and five times lighter than aluminum.
It conducts electricity better than any other material at room temperature.
It is thought that graphene could boost the useful life of batteries by 10 per cent.
Graphene can also detect cancer cells in the early stages of the disease.
The material was first discovered when Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov were 'playing' with graphite at the University of Manchester in 2004.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203S%20Money%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20London%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Zhiznevsky%2C%20Eugene%20Dugaev%20and%20Andrei%20Dikouchine%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%245.6%20million%20raised%20in%20total%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What are NFTs?
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
Company profile
Name: Thndr
Started: October 2020
Founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: pre-seed of $800,000
Funding stage: series A; $20 million
Investors: Tiger Global, Beco Capital, Prosus Ventures, Y Combinator, Global Ventures, Abdul Latif Jameel, Endure Capital, 4DX Ventures, Plus VC, Rabacap and MSA Capital
Starring: Jamie Foxx, Angela Bassett, Tina Fey
Directed by: Pete Doctor
Rating: 4 stars
Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
Tips from the expert
Dobromir Radichkov, chief data officer at dubizzle and Bayut, offers a few tips for UAE residents looking to earn some cash from pre-loved items.
- Sellers should focus on providing high-quality used goods at attractive prices to buyers.
- It’s important to use clear and appealing photos, with catchy titles and detailed descriptions to capture the attention of prospective buyers.
- Try to advertise a realistic price to attract buyers looking for good deals, especially in the current environment where consumers are significantly more price-sensitive.
- Be creative and look around your home for valuable items that you no longer need but might be useful to others.
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
High profile Al Shabab attacks
- 2010: A restaurant attack in Kampala Uganda kills 74 people watching a Fifa World Cup final football match.
- 2013: The Westgate shopping mall attack, 62 civilians, five Kenyan soldiers and four gunmen are killed.
- 2014: A series of bombings and shootings across Kenya sees scores of civilians killed.
- 2015: Four gunmen attack Garissa University College in northeastern Kenya and take over 700 students hostage, killing those who identified as Christian; 148 die and 79 more are injured.
- 2016: An attack on a Kenyan military base in El Adde Somalia kills 180 soldiers.
- 2017: A suicide truck bombing outside the Safari Hotel in Mogadishu kills 587 people and destroys several city blocks, making it the deadliest attack by the group and the worst in Somalia’s history.
THE NEW BATCH'S FOCUS SECTORS
AiFlux – renewables, oil and gas
DevisionX – manufacturing
Event Gates – security and manufacturing
Farmdar – agriculture
Farmin – smart cities
Greener Crop – agriculture
Ipera.ai – space digitisation
Lune Technologies – fibre-optics
Monak – delivery
NutzenTech – environment
Nybl – machine learning
Occicor – shelf management
Olymon Solutions – smart automation
Pivony – user-generated data
PowerDev – energy big data
Sav – finance
Searover – renewables
Swftbox – delivery
Trade Capital Partners – FinTech
Valorafutbol – sports and entertainment
Workfam – employee engagement
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
