Black Friday, traditionally the busiest and most important day of the year for retailers, is in the books. While final results are not likely to emerge until early next year, there are some initial clues as to who is having the best holiday.
Among the early trends coming into focus are fewer promotions and thinner crowds compared with pre-pandemic Black Fridays. Demand has been brisk, however, and shopping appears to be more spread out than in the past.
Shoppers returned to stores on Black Friday this year but traffic remained well below pre-pandemic levels, according to Sensormatic Solutions.
Visits to stores and shopping centres climbed 48 per cent from a year ago while trailing 2019 traffic by 28 per cent, Sensormatic said in a report on Saturday. One reason this year’s gain was not larger is that retailers spread out traffic peaks by starting holiday deals early, said Brian Field, senior director of global retail consulting at Sensormatic.
“Everybody started earlier and, most importantly, the shopper started earlier,” he said. “Going back to pre-pandemic times, the holiday season very clearly started the week of Black Friday. You could bank on it.”
During the holiday season as a whole this year, in-store visits are expected to lag 2019 levels by only 10 per cent to 15 per cent, said Sensormatic. Despite Covid-19 concerns, research points to consumers prioritising in-store shopping to avoid potential shipping delays amid well-publicised logjams in the global supply chain, Mr Field said.
Meanwhile, online spending totalled $8.9 billion on Black Friday, a number that was at the low end of expectations and slightly less than last year, according to the latest tally from the Adobe Digital Economy Index.
“For the first time ever, Black Friday saw a reversal of the growth trend of past years,” Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, said in a report on US e-commerce trends. Last year, online Black Friday spending hit $9bn.
This year, sales on Thanksgiving Day were flat at $5.1bn, and the sluggish two-day performance was a “sign that consumers started to shift their spending to earlier in the season, responding to promotions and deals from retailers that started in October”, Adobe said.
Consumers were expected to spend $4.5bn to $5.1bn online on Saturday. Adobe predicted purchases of $10.2bn to $11.3bn on November 29, or Cyber Monday, which the firm said, is set to be the biggest online shopping day of the year. Adobe reiterated its prediction of $207bn in consumer spending during the holiday season as a whole.
“Black Friday still remains a major online shopping day, but the surge in online shopping is coming from the less marketed days of the season,” said Taylor Schreiner, director at Adobe Digital Insights, noting that shoppers started with their purchases since late October.
Toys and cooking items were the top sellers for the day, Adobe said. With shoppers still concerned about the pandemic, kerbside pickup has risen 78 per cent from two years ago, it said.
According to Adobe, electronics and video games dominated the list of top-selling products bought online. Items included televisions made by Samsung and Vizio, Oculus Quest 2 – Meta’s virtual reality headset – and video game titles such as Fifa 22 from Electronic Arts and Ubisoft Entertainment’s Far Cry 6. Most-purchased toys included Legos and Rainbocorns.
Consumers are increasingly financing their holiday shopping with buy-now-pay-later options and instalment plans for their purchases.
On Thanksgiving Day, purchases in the US using Klarna, one such app offering instalment payments, rose 124 per cent from a year ago.
According to data from Salesforce.com, shoppers used BNPL options on 8 per cent of all purchases in the past couple of days – up 31 per cent from the previous year.
“Generally, because of rising costs, people are willing to pay more for a particular item,” said Rob Garf, vice president of retail at Salesforce. “They want to buy early, but on the other hand, they are trying to be prudent with their budget.”
With Covid-19 still lingering – and a new variant emerging – retailers have largely eschewed offers that would require customers to pack into stores to get them. But that does not mean Black Friday sales have completely disappeared, said Poonam Goyal, Bloomberg Intelligence retail analyst.
All the deals that are available in store are largely available online, which seems that you can go out if you want to enjoy the experience of Black Friday shopping but alternatively you can find everything still online from your home without stepping outside
Poonam Goyal,
Bloomberg Intelligence retail analyst
“What we don’t have again is doorbusters,” she said. “All the deals that are available in store are largely available online, which seems that you can go out if you want to enjoy the experience of Black Friday shopping but alternatively you can find everything still online from your home without stepping outside. I think online shopping will be a much bigger deal.”
Jeff Gennette, chief executive at Macy's, said he did not see Black Friday foot traffic bouncing back to pre-pandemic levels this year. Traffic at stores remained below what it was in 2019, he said. More of those who go in are actually making a purchase, however.
Like the rest of the industry, staffing has been a challenge.
“We’ve got some stores in great shape and some stores that are really lean,” Mr Gennette said last week.
The department store chain said earlier this month it would raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour by May. Because of seasonal challenges, that pay boost has already gone into effect in more than 100 stores for the Christmas hiring season.
Hiring has improved, “but we still have some gaps and open jobs”, he said. “We’re mitigating that by offering spot bonuses or premium pay for weekends. We’re offering our colleagues opportunity for overtime and working six days.”
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
RESULT
Arsenal 0 Chelsea 3
Chelsea: Willian (40'), Batshuayi (42', 49')
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
HIV on the rise in the region
A 2019 United Nations special analysis on Aids reveals 37 per cent of new HIV infections in the Mena region are from people injecting drugs.
New HIV infections have also risen by 29 per cent in western Europe and Asia, and by 7 per cent in Latin America, but declined elsewhere.
Egypt has shown the highest increase in recorded cases of HIV since 2010, up by 196 per cent.
Access to HIV testing, treatment and care in the region is well below the global average.
Few statistics have been published on the number of cases in the UAE, although a UNAIDS report said 1.5 per cent of the prison population has the virus.
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
The specs: 2018 Renault Megane
Price, base / as tested Dh52,900 / Dh59,200
Engine 1.6L in-line four-cylinder
Transmission Continuously variable transmission
Power 115hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 156Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.6L / 100km
Bawaal%20
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Explainer: Tanween Design Programme
Non-profit arts studio Tashkeel launched this annual initiative with the intention of supporting budding designers in the UAE. This year, three talents were chosen from hundreds of applicants to be a part of the sixth creative development programme. These are architect Abdulla Al Mulla, interior designer Lana El Samman and graphic designer Yara Habib.
The trio have been guided by experts from the industry over the course of nine months, as they developed their own products that merge their unique styles with traditional elements of Emirati design. This includes laboratory sessions, experimental and collaborative practice, investigation of new business models and evaluation.
It is led by British contemporary design project specialist Helen Voce and mentor Kevin Badni, and offers participants access to experts from across the world, including the likes of UK designer Gareth Neal and multidisciplinary designer and entrepreneur, Sheikh Salem Al Qassimi.
The final pieces are being revealed in a worldwide limited-edition release on the first day of Downtown Designs at Dubai Design Week 2019. Tashkeel will be at stand E31 at the exhibition.
Lisa Ball-Lechgar, deputy director of Tashkeel, said: “The diversity and calibre of the applicants this year … is reflective of the dynamic change that the UAE art and design industry is witnessing, with young creators resolute in making their bold design ideas a reality.”
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THE BIO
Favourite place to go to in the UAE: The desert sand dunes, just after some rain
Who inspires you: Anybody with new and smart ideas, challenging questions, an open mind and a positive attitude
Where would you like to retire: Most probably in my home country, Hungary, but with frequent returns to the UAE
Favorite book: A book by Transilvanian author, Albert Wass, entitled ‘Sword and Reap’ (Kard es Kasza) - not really known internationally
Favourite subjects in school: Mathematics and science
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
