The smart money thinks natural gas prices are poised for another late summer swoon.
Hedge funds and other large speculators cut their bullish bets by 23 per cent in the week that ended on August 10, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported.
Natural gas has already declined 13 per cent this month, dropping to $4.303 per million British thermal units in early trading yesterday, and many observers see demand remaining low with consumer confidence low. It would be the second year in a row to see a sharp drop, as prices slipped 19 per cent last August.
"There's a significant amount of supply out there and the overall economy is really having trouble recovering and growing. The increase in demand for natural gas is going to be slower than people expect," said Andy Lipow, the president of Lipow Oil Associates, a consulting company in Houston.
The wildcard in the mix is the possibility of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, which has so far experienced a slow storm season.
The increase in short positions leaves hedge funds vulnerable to sharp moves higher in prices that would probably accompany the threat of a hurricane, said Teri Viswanath, the director of commodities research at Credit Suisse Securities USA in Houston.
On August 5, the US reduced its forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season to 14 to 20 named storms, down from 14 to 23, because of less activity than expected in the first two months of the season.
The sluggish economy, combined with rising production and inventories, will continue to weigh on gas prices. And the bullish impact of any hurricane will be muted since the Gulf of Mexico accounts for 10 per cent of US gas production, down from 17 per cent in 2005. Natural gas inventories rose 37 billion cubic feet to 2.98 trillion in the week ending on August 6, the energy department reported on Thursday.
US gas stockpiles at the end of October may reach 3.752 trillion cu ft, just short of the record supplies reached last November.
"The view of the market is bearish," said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at City Futures Perspective in New York. "It's a flow of selling that has weighed on prices and we've got to get through that before prices can rise."
* with Bloomberg
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
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%3Cp%3E1.%20Go%20to%20%3Cstrong%3Echrome%3A%2F%2Fflags%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E2.%20Find%20and%20enable%20%3Cstrong%3EExpansion%20pack%20for%20the%20Site%20Search%20starter%20pack%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E3.%20Restart%20Chrome%20Canary%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E4.%20Go%20to%20%3Cstrong%3Echrome%3A%2F%2Fsettings%2FsearchEngines%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20in%20the%20address%20bar%20and%20find%20the%20%3Cstrong%3EChat%20with%20Gemini%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20shortcut%20under%20%3Cstrong%3ESite%20Search%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E5.%20Open%20a%20new%20tab%20and%20type%20%40%20to%20see%20the%20Chat%20with%20Gemini%20shortcut%20along%20with%20other%20Omnibox%20shortcuts%20to%20search%20tabs%2C%20history%20and%20bookmarks%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
- The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
- The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
- The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
- The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
- The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
The specs
The specs: 2019 Audi Q8
Price, base: Dh315,000
Engine: 3.0-litre turbocharged V6
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 340hp @ 3,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 2,250rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.7L / 100km
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million