JP Morgan Bank believes "the stage is set" in Europe for a cyclical recovery. Photo: AFP
JP Morgan Bank believes "the stage is set" in Europe for a cyclical recovery. Photo: AFP
JP Morgan Bank believes "the stage is set" in Europe for a cyclical recovery. Photo: AFP
JP Morgan Bank believes "the stage is set" in Europe for a cyclical recovery. Photo: AFP

Compelling investment opportunities in Europe as earnings stay below peak


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Europe’s economy is picking up the pace and the outlook has improved considerably. A synchronised global economic recovery combined with strengthening internal demand is lending support to European earnings. With second quarter reporting season behind us, equity analysts predict that European earnings will grow double digits this year. After several years of no top line or earnings growth, 2017 marks an exciting inflection point in Europe’s corporate prospects. Europe is starting from a low base and earnings remain 20 per cent below the previous peak, in stark contrast to US corporate profits which are close to record highs. This dispersion provides compelling investment opportunities.

Europe can benefit from both a cyclical and structural recovery, in our opinion. Cyclical headwinds are changing direction. European firms derive a high proportion of revenues from both the commodity sector and emerging markets, where fundamentals are finally on an improving trajectory. Meanwhile, the European domestic economy is demonstrating increasingly robust growth. The fortunes of financial firms may also be turning; capital concerns have been mostly addressed and institutions could benefit from a shift in the direction of interest rates and steeper yield curves.

We are increasingly evidencing of a structural shift in corporate behaviour with European companies re-emphasising shareholder value. Such a shift will help the investment community to gain confidence that firms are able to sustain a profit revival over the longer term. We believe a greater focus on simplifying corporate structure, addressing underperforming businesses, tighter benchmarking and wider sharing of best practices could boost European margins significantly.

Businesses in Europe may have overemphasised debt reduction, especially given the low interest rate environment. As confidence in the economic outlook grows, right-sizing balance sheets can also enhance shareholder value, facilitating higher dividends and share buybacks. Spare capital could also be deployed in strategic acquisitions. Many industries in Europe remain extremely fragmented and M&A is likely to feature as companies seek to sharpen focus and deepen market penetration. When markets consolidate, there is typically an improvement in financial returns for the whole industry.

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Read more:

ECB head Draghi says protectionism threatens global economic growth

Whingeing Britain needs to stop moaning and develop a Brexit strategy

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Growing revenue momentum in Europe, combined with cyclical and structural tailwinds, mean we are likely to see significant operating leverage. When margins are at low levels, operating leverage can be substantial, meaning modest top-line growth can generate large bottom-line growth. At the start of a new profit cycle, operating leverage can act as a large multiplier to earnings and its impact is often underestimated.

Interestingly, many companies in Europe have embraced research and development, technology and innovation to drive premium positioning with a quality product, and customer service to match. Motivated by tighter labour laws, automation is often seen as essential to increasing productivity, while bringing down costs. These trends have been especially evident among smaller companies. It is likely that the financial benefit of these investments has been hidden so far by the weak top-line environment. With inflation returning, premium products should be able to command greater pricing power. Price rises tend to fall straight to the bottom line and enhance operating leverage.

Each additional percentage point of revenue growth feeds through to profits at a higher rate in continental Europe than other regions. We believe investors may be underappreciating this factor. Furthermore, restructuring already undertaken by businesses through the downturn means this operating leverage may be higher than in previous cycles.

The stage is set in Europe for a cyclical recovery. In addition, as the focus of European executives shifts towards a renewed desire to address the structural drag on profitability, a sustainable recovery may be at hand. As home to many leading international businesses, Europe offers a rich source of attractive investment opportunities. The key is to identify those companies that are well managed and have the competitive position and vision to grow their earnings well into the future.

Grace Peters is the executive director - equities at JP Morgan Private Bank

Milestones on the road to union

1970

October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar. 

December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.

1971

March 1:  Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.

July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.

July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.

August 6:  The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.

August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.

September 3: Qatar becomes independent.

November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.

November 29:  At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.

November 30: Despite  a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa. 

November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties

December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.

December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.

December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.

Personalities on the Plate: The Lives and Minds of Animals We Eat

Barbara J King, University of Chicago Press 

UNpaid bills:

Countries with largest unpaid bill for UN budget in 2019

USA – $1.055 billion

Brazil – $143 million

Argentina – $52 million

Mexico – $36 million

Iran – $27 million

Israel – $18 million

Venezuela – $17 million

Korea – $10 million

Countries with largest unpaid bill for UN peacekeeping operations in 2019

USA – $2.38 billion

Brazil – $287 million

Spain – $110 million

France – $103 million

Ukraine – $100 million

 

Specs

Engine: 51.5kW electric motor

Range: 400km

Power: 134bhp

Torque: 175Nm

Price: From Dh98,800

Available: Now

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Tearful appearance

Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday. 

Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow. 

She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.

A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.

ENGLAND SQUAD

Joe Root (c), Moeen Ali, Jimmy Anderson, Jonny Bairstow, Stuart Broad, Jos Buttler, Alastair Cook, Sam Curran, Keaton Jennings, Ollie Pope, Adil Rashid, Ben Stokes, James Vince, Chris Woakes

What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
 
  • Grade 9 = above an A*
  • Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
  • Grade 7 = grade A
  • Grade 6 = just above a grade B
  • Grade 5 = between grades B and C
  • Grade 4 = grade C
  • Grade 3 = between grades D and E
  • Grade 2 = between grades E and F
  • Grade 1 = between grades F and G
'Downton Abbey: A New Era'

Director: Simon Curtis

 

Cast: Hugh Bonneville, Elizabeth McGovern, Maggie Smith, Michelle Dockery, Laura Carmichael, Jim Carter and Phyllis Logan

 

Rating: 4/5

 
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Leaderboard

63 - Mike Lorenzo-Vera (FRA)

64 - Rory McIlroy (NIR)

66 - Jon Rahm (ESP)

67 - Tom Lewis (ENG), Tommy Fleetwood (ENG)

68 - Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP), Marcus Kinhult (SWE)

69 - Justin Rose (ENG), Thomas Detry (BEL), Francesco Molinari (ITA), Danny Willett (ENG), Li Haotong (CHN), Matthias Schwab (AUT)

What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

F1 The Movie

Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem

Director: Joseph Kosinski

Rating: 4/5

Results

2.30pm: Park Avenue – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (Dirt) 2,000m; Winner: Rb Seqondtonone, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)

3.05pm: Al Furjan – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,200m; Winner: Bosphorus, Dane O’Neill, Bhupat Seemar

3.40pm: Mina – Rated Condition (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Royal Mews, Tadhg O’Shea, Bhupat Seemar

4.15pm: Aliyah – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (T) 1,900m; Winner: Ursa Minor, Ray Dawson, Ahmad bin Harmash

4.50pm: Riviera Beach – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 2,200m; Winner: Woodditton, Saif Al Balushi, Ahmad bin Harmash

5.25pm: Riviera – Handicap (TB) Dh2,000 (T) 2,000m; Winner: Al Madhar, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi

6pm: Creek Views – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Al Salt, Dane O’Neill, Erwan Charpy

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AT%20A%20GLANCE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWindfall%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAn%20%E2%80%9Cenergy%20profits%20levy%E2%80%9D%20to%20raise%20about%20%C2%A35%20billion%20in%20a%20year.%20The%20temporary%20one-off%20tax%20will%20hit%20oil%20and%20gas%20firms%20by%2025%20per%20cent%20on%20extraordinary%20profits.%20An%2080%20per%20cent%20investment%20allowance%20should%20calm%20Conservative%20nerves%20that%20the%20move%20will%20dent%20North%20Sea%20firms%E2%80%99%20investment%20to%20save%20them%2091p%20for%20every%20%C2%A31%20they%20spend.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EA%20universal%20grant%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EEnergy%20bills%20discount%2C%20which%20was%20effectively%20a%20%C2%A3200%20loan%2C%20has%20doubled%20to%20a%20%C2%A3400%20discount%20on%20bills%20for%20all%20households%20from%20October%20that%20will%20not%20need%20to%20be%20paid%20back.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETargeted%20measures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMore%20than%20eight%20million%20of%20the%20lowest%20income%20households%20will%20receive%20a%20%C2%A3650%20one-off%20payment.%20It%20will%20apply%20to%20households%20on%20Universal%20Credit%2C%20Tax%20Credits%2C%20Pension%20Credit%20and%20legacy%20benefits.%3Cbr%3ESeparate%20one-off%20payments%20of%20%C2%A3300%20will%20go%20to%20pensioners%20and%20%C2%A3150%20for%20those%20receiving%20disability%20benefits.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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Company Profile:

Name: The Protein Bakeshop

Date of start: 2013

Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani

Based: Dubai

Size, number of employees: 12

Funding/investors:  $400,000 (2018) 

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Labour dispute

The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.


- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law 

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Abramovich London

A Kensington Palace Gardens house with 15 bedrooms is valued at more than £150 million.

A three-storey penthouse at Chelsea Waterfront bought for £22 million.

Steel company Evraz drops more than 10 per cent in trading after UK officials said it was potentially supplying the Russian military.

Sale of Chelsea Football Club is now impossible.