Gold is on track to hit $7,000 an ounce this year, analysts say, after it held above $5,000 for a second day amid persisting geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Spot gold was flat at nearly $5,080 an ounce early on Tuesday, but has been on a tear after setting 51 new records in 2025 and eight in January, including Monday's new peak of $5,110.50.
Gold is up about 18 per cent in the past 30 days and more than 84 per cent over the past 12 months.
Using the precious metal's performance in 2025 as a reference, scaling similar ground in percentage terms would put gold as high as $7,100 an ounce by the end of 2026, analysts at RBC Capital Markets said, noting that flocking to the asset will continue.
"Many of the same underpinnings are there and, importantly, we still do not get a sense of exhaustion in terms of accumulation from investors or from the official sector [such as central banks]," they said. "Historic rallies may provide some benchmark for rally duration ... similar major rallies of the past point to early September or mid-December based on duration alone."
US investment firm Jefferies projects gold will hit $6,600, while Goldman Sachs sees it at a more modest $5,400 in 2026, although the latter's forecast has risen sharply from a previous suggestion of $4,900 following the metal's latest surge.
Nevertheless, "the moves we’ve seen this year [are] being, frankly, staggering ... and January isn’t even over yet", said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Australia-based broker Pepperstone.
The "bull case remains very robust indeed, with momentum also favouring further upside, as metals continue to prove the old adage that one record high tends to beget several more", he said.
Silver shines bright
Silver, meanwhile, has gathered even more momentum, even after breaching the three-figure level last week.
The metal was down nearly 3.3 per cent to $111.51 an ounce early on Tuesday, but has soared more than 62 per cent in the past month – and nearly 280 per cent over the past year. It hit a record $117.69 on Monday.
The "only" fundamental factor that would justify silver's current price levels is "a debasement of the US dollar and a broader-based loss of trust in the greenback as the world’s reserve currency", said Carsten Menke, head of next-generation research at Swiss bank Julius Baer.
Also, while the Greenland takeover saga and related concerns over further geopolitical escalation pushed up prices at the beginning of the week, the silver market refused to respond to the de-escalation, he said.
"Silver seems to have become the ‘Trump of all trades’. It simply does what it wants, or what market participants want – in this case, targeting the triple-digit threshold ... prices do not mirror the value of the metal anymore, but rather the willingness to pay for those who are hoarding and herding in the market," Mr Menke said.
While there is "little doubt" the rise of silver is due for a sharp correction, some investors argue that relative value gains matter more than nominal ones, said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
"From that perspective, silver’s move – while impressive – remains broadly in line with historical trends," she added. "That suggests that once a pullback has run its course, the rally has little reason to stop, especially as the US dollar continues to lose its fundamental appeal."
