A resilient US economy and expectations of a nearing peak in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening cycle are emboldening stock investors, even as worries persist over rising valuations and the potential for inflation to rebound.
The S&P 500 is up nearly 19 per cent this year after gaining around 1 per cent in the past week. It has risen nearly 10 percentage points since June 1, over which time the US government avoided a debt ceiling default and consumer prices cooled, while growth stayed resilient.
One key factor driving stocks higher has been the view that the economy is moving towards a so-called Goldilocks scenario of ebbing consumer prices and strong growth that many believe is a healthy backdrop for stocks.
That view gained further traction in the past week, when chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank's staff no longer forecasts a US recession and that inflation had a shot of returning to its 2 per cent target without high levels of job losses.
Policymakers raised rates by another 25 basis points to their highest level since 2007 at the central bank's July 26 meeting and left the door open to another increase in September.
“The market has fully accepted the narrative that it wanted, which is Goldilocks. Until we see some set of data that scares them, it's hard to see how that changes,” said Bob Kalman, senior portfolio manager at Miramar Capital.
At the same time, investors believe the Fed is unlikely to deliver much more of the monetary policy tightening that shook markets last year.
Futures markets on Friday priced a nearly 73 per cent chance that rates do not rise above current levels through the end of the year, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, up from 24 per cent a month ago.
A test of the economy comes this week, when the US reports employment numbers for July.
While comparatively strong employment data has been a driver of this year’s stock rally, signs that the economy is growing at too rapid a pace could lead to worries that the Fed will need to raise rates more than expected.
“For markets to continue to trade higher, the soft landing must be a soft landing, not a reacceleration, because if housing and consumer spending accelerate from here, the Fed will have to raise rates a lot more,” wrote Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management.
Mr Kalman, of Miramar Capital, believes there is a growing chance the Fed may need to raise rates beyond their current 5.50 per cent threshold and hold them there for longer than expected, an outcome he worries could dampen the economy and hurt risk assets.
“It's a 50-50 chance that we'll get Goldilocks or we'll get a stronger downturn,” he said.
Many are also assessing the durability of a rally in tech stocks, which has been fuelled in part by excitement over developments in artificial intelligence.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is up nearly 44 per cent year-to-date, while the S&P 500 information technology sector has gained nearly 46 per cent.
Optimistic forecasts from Meta Platforms and results from Alphabet earlier last week bolstered the case for those who believe megacaps’ lofty valuations are justified.
Some smaller companies have delivered as well, with shares of streaming device maker Roku soaring on Friday after it gave an upbeat quarterly revenue forecast.
Still, some investors have been looking outside of tech stocks for further gains, wary of rising valuations.
The S&P 500 tech sector now trades at 28.2 times forward earnings, from 19.6 at the start of the year.
Burns McKinney, senior portfolio manager at NJF Investment Group, owns shares of Apple and Microsoft but has been adding to dividend-paying positions in health care, financials and energy in anticipation that megacap names start to falter.
It's a 50-50 chance that we'll get Goldilocks or we'll get a stronger downturn
Bob Kalman,
senior portfolio manager, Miramar Capital
For megacap stocks, “the risk-reward is not as good as it was a quarter ago”, he said.
Others believe the rally in equities is ready for a pause.
Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives for the Schwab Centre for Financial Research, said he would not be surprised to see the S&P 500 fall 5 per cent or more in the next month or two as investors take profits on recent gains.
Yet he also believes stocks are in the “early stages” of their recovery after falling into a bear market last year.
“There’s always a concern with too much optimism, but longer term a sort of consolidation here speaks to a positive market going out,” he said.
'Cheb%20Khaled'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EArtist%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKhaled%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELabel%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBelieve%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sun jukebox
Rufus Thomas, Bear Cat (The Answer to Hound Dog) (1953)
This rip-off of Leiber/Stoller’s early rock stomper brought a lawsuit against Phillips and necessitated Presley’s premature sale to RCA.
Elvis Presley, Mystery Train (1955)
The B-side of Presley’s final single for Sun bops with a drummer-less groove.
Johnny Cash and the Tennessee Two, Folsom Prison Blues (1955)
Originally recorded for Sun, Cash’s signature tune was performed for inmates of the titular prison 13 years later.
Carl Perkins, Blue Suede Shoes (1956)
Within a month of Sun’s February release Elvis had his version out on RCA.
Roy Orbison, Ooby Dooby (1956)
An essential piece of irreverent juvenilia from Orbison.
Jerry Lee Lewis, Great Balls of Fire (1957)
Lee’s trademark anthem is one of the era’s best-remembered – and best-selling – songs.
The British in India: Three Centuries of Ambition and Experience
by David Gilmour
Allen Lane
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Pad Man
Dir: R Balki
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Sonam Kapoor, Radhika Apte
Three-and-a-half stars
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
At a glance - Zayed Sustainability Prize 2020
Launched: 2008
Categories: Health, energy, water, food, global high schools
Prize: Dh2.2 million (Dh360,000 for global high schools category)
Winners’ announcement: Monday, January 13
Impact in numbers
335 million people positively impacted by projects
430,000 jobs created
10 million people given access to clean and affordable drinking water
50 million homes powered by renewable energy
6.5 billion litres of water saved
26 million school children given solar lighting
TUESDAY'S ORDER OF PLAY
Centre Court
Starting at 2pm:
Elina Svitolina (UKR) [3] v Jennifer Brady (USA)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS) v Belinda Bencic (SUI [4]
Not before 7pm:
Sofia Kenin (USA) [5] v Elena Rybakina (KAZ)
Maria Sakkari (GRE) v Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) [7]
Court One
Starting at midday:
Karolina Muchova (CZE) v Katerina Siniakova (CZE)
Kristina Mladenovic (FRA) v Aliaksandra Sasnovich (BLR)
Veronika Kudermetova (RUS) v Dayana Yastermska (UKR)
Petra Martic (CRO) [8] v Su-Wei Hsieh (TPE)
Sorana Cirstea (ROU) v Anett Kontaveit (EST)
Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
Price: From Dh147,000
Available: Now
THE DETAILS
Deadpool 2
Dir: David Leitch
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Josh Brolin, Justin Dennison, Zazie Beetz
Four stars
