As European governments begin to outline concrete plans for a green-energy revolution, the vast costs of the endeavour are beginning to emerge, raising the prospect of public resistance that could stall the process. The opening last month of the world's largest offshore wind farm by Sweden's Vattenfall off the south-eastern coast of England, a group of 100 giant wind turbines capable of supplying 200,000 households with electricity, underscored the UK's determination to meet 15 per cent of its energy needs from green sources by 2020.
Germany has already exceeded that target, currently deriving more than 16 per cent of its power from renewables, and Angela Merkel, the chancellor, last month announced a bold plan to raise that share to 80 per cent by 2050. The European Commission is expected to unveil its green-energy proposals next February. Covering the bulk of Europe's power needs from the wind and sun, biomass and water is a tantalising dream for policymakers, not just for environmental reasons but because it would end the dependence on Arab oil and Russian gas, and at least in Germany consign deeply unpopular nuclear power generation to the history books.
But making that dream come true will require unprecedented investment in wind turbines and solar panels, in high-tech power lines, in hydroelectric plants, in so-called smart grids and in insulating buildings. At this stage, no one knows how high the cost will be. But there is growing public awareness that it will amount to many hundreds of billions of euros and that households and businesses will face surging electricity bills and property renovation costs as laws requiring them to limit energy wastage take effect.
Industrial companies in Germany, Europe's largest economy, are already threatening to relocate factories abroad if they feel that electricity prices are allowed to rise too far. Germany expects the expansion of its offshore wind capacity to cost some €75 billion (Dh379.75bn) of investment by 2030. The UK this year awarded licences to wind farm developers in a programme that will require investment of over £75bn.
But those outlays will be dwarfed by the cost of modernising and expanding Europe's power grid to balance out constant fluctuations in wind strength and in the radiation reaching solar plants. The EU estimates that modernising and expanding power lines and networks to transport renewable energy will cost about €400bn. Europe is working on building power lines to transport wind energy south from the North Sea turbines and north from the Desertec solar project in the Sahara. Norway will need to be hooked up to this grid because it has an ample supply of water reservoirs that can be converted into the pumped-storage hydroelectric plants that will be crucial for the green revolution.
During storms, when wind turbines are pumping power into the grid, the resulting electricity surplus can be stored by using it to pump water up hundreds of metres into reservoirs. When there is no wind, the plants can feed power back into the grid by letting the water cascade on to turbines, thereby offsetting the shortage of wind power. Norway is destined to become Europe's green battery because most other countries do not have the right topography for such storage plants, or are too densely populated to build many.
Meanwhile, expanding the use of biomass for energy production is already increasing food prices because of the resulting shortage of agricultural land. World grain prices are destined to rise, in turn boosting the cost of keeping livestock, so meat, too, will become pricier. In addition, German property owners and tenants associations fear crippling renovation costs as a result of Mrs Merkel's plan that by 2050, no buildings in Germany will be wasting heat through poorly insulated walls, windows and roofs.
In the coming years, the prospect of sharp increases in costs and prices will provoke growing public opposition to the radical measures needed to wean Europe off oil, gas, coal and nuclear power, and politicians will have no option but to pay attention to it. Major infrastructure projects such as building water reservoirs and laying power lines are also encountering resistance from local "not in my backyard" campaigners.
The green revolution will happen because the continent has invested too much economic and political capital in the effort to call it off. But progress is likely to be slower, more arduous and far costlier than governments are daring to admit.
