Arsenal's Carl Jenkinson, centre, employs his passing skills during a match against Chelsea in the English Premier League last month. Adrian Dennis / AFP
Arsenal's Carl Jenkinson, centre, employs his passing skills during a match against Chelsea in the English Premier League last month. Adrian Dennis / AFP
Arsenal's Carl Jenkinson, centre, employs his passing skills during a match against Chelsea in the English Premier League last month. Adrian Dennis / AFP
Arsenal's Carl Jenkinson, centre, employs his passing skills during a match against Chelsea in the English Premier League last month. Adrian Dennis / AFP

Footballers teach business how to improve


Gillian Duncan
  • English
  • Arabic

Thomas Grund may be a postdoctoral researcher, but he also happens to be a very big football fan.

So when he devised a study about teams involving players in the English Premier League he was rather pleased with himself.

"I just wanted an excuse to watch lots and lots of football," says Mr Grund, an Arsenal fan on a fellowship at ETH Zurich university in Switzerland.

And that he did.

Mr Grund examined 283,259 passes between players in 760 matches for his research, which he undertook as part of his PhD in sociology at Oxford University.

The lesson for business, he says, is that teams that involve more interaction and more equal input between individual members tend to put in stronger performances.

How did he get there? By watching a lot of football - but it wasn't all fun and games. Some of the data was on paper and the work involved many complicated equations.

"I looked at this data set in front of me and it was a bit like watching The Matrix," he says. Indeed, this may mark the first time the footwork of Kolo Toure has been subjected to crossed random-effects Poisson regression.

But why football, aside from Mr Grund's interest in the sport?

"In football … we can really look at how teams perform. It's just really clear and in other contexts it is so hard," he says.

The game, as he explains in his paper, which was published in the journal Social Networks, is ideal because it is governed by clear rules; teams have well-defined boundaries; all team members are present and the strength of interaction between members of the teams can be studied objectively.

He was particularly interested in the different types of shapes that the passes created, which helped him map the relationships between teammates.

"I looked for certain types of events. In this study I looked at, OK, who is the next person who gets the ball? Is it this player or is it that player?

"Does this pass form a triad or does this pass form a circle with lots of other passes before it? Or does it create other network features like a star or whatnot?"

The data showed that Premier League teams that made more passes scored more goals, as did teams that made more passes equally between their players.

"It's not just one player who always gets the ball," he says.

The finding confirmed conclusions about team dynamics in earlier studies.

"Teams are better when there is not such a central person, where there are many routes they can take.

"And teams where there is a lot of intensity and a lot of contact between individuals, in that team they are more efficient as well," he explains. Next Mr Grund plans to study what happens to the performance of teams when they bring in or get rid of players.

"I have some preliminary results which suggest that you want to have some turnover but not too much," he says. "That is something you could expect. You want to have some new elements in a team but you don't want to rip the team apart."

Studying football teams may seem alternative, but it is nothing compared with his previous research into criminal networks.

"They fascinate me," he says.

Mr Grund studied a youth gang in London to see who offended with whom using CCTV camera footage, police data and information from undercover investigators looking at ethnicity.

"It doesn't really matter which ethnic group the gang members are from. They will do any sort of crime. But at the end of the day ethnicity matters with whom they co-offend," he says.

"You could think of a youth gang as a team, sort of," he adds.

Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

Pox that threatens the Middle East's native species

Camelpox

Caused by a virus related to the one that causes human smallpox, camelpox typically causes fever, swelling of lymph nodes and skin lesions in camels aged over three, but the animal usually recovers after a month or so. Younger animals may develop a more acute form that causes internal lesions and diarrhoea, and is often fatal, especially when secondary infections result. It is found across the Middle East as well as in parts of Asia, Africa, Russia and India.

Falconpox

Falconpox can cause a variety of types of lesions, which can affect, for example, the eyelids, feet and the areas above and below the beak. It is a problem among captive falcons and is one of many types of avian pox or avipox diseases that together affect dozens of bird species across the world. Among the other forms are pigeonpox, turkeypox, starlingpox and canarypox. Avipox viruses are spread by mosquitoes and direct bird-to-bird contact.

Houbarapox

Houbarapox is, like falconpox, one of the many forms of avipox diseases. It exists in various forms, with a type that causes skin lesions being least likely to result in death. Other forms cause more severe lesions, including internal lesions, and are more likely to kill the bird, often because secondary infections develop. This summer the CVRL reported an outbreak of pox in houbaras after rains in spring led to an increase in mosquito numbers.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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