A drilling rig in the Loma Campana Vaca Muerta in Argentina. Oil prices are remaining steady. Juliana Castilla / Reuters
A drilling rig in the Loma Campana Vaca Muerta in Argentina. Oil prices are remaining steady. Juliana Castilla / Reuters

Oil prices stable as consumption balances supply



Oil prices were stable on Tuesday, supported by strong consumption but weighed by ongoing high supplies from Opec members and also the United States.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at US$48.55 per barrel at 01.30 GMT, up 13 cents, or 0.3 per cent, from their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $46.12 per barrel, up 10 cents, or 0.2 per cent.

In a sign of strong demand, data on Monday showed refineries in China increased crude throughput in June to the second highest on record.

Despite this, oil markets have struggled with oversupply since 2014, resulting in a more than 50 per cent fall in prices since then.

A deal by Opec with Russia and other non-Opec producers to cut supplies by around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) between January this year and March 2018 has so far not led to the tighter market and higher prices that producers have hoped for.

That is because supplies from within Opec remain high largely due to rising output from Nigeria and Libya, two Opec states exempt from the pact, and increasing US production.

Ecuador, a small producer within Opec, also said on Tuesday that it is not complying with its production cut of 26,000 bpd due to the country's fiscal deficit which is expected to hit 7.5 per cent of GDP this year.

The oil minister Carlos Perez saidEcuador was only cutting some 60 per cent of that figure, putting current output at 545,000 bpd.

"We are not meeting the quota imposed on us because of the obvious needs the country has," Mr Perez said.

Company%20Profile
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

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The Gentlemen

Director: Guy Ritchie

Stars: Colin Farrell, Hugh Grant 

Three out of five stars

TO ALL THE BOYS: ALWAYS AND FOREVER

Directed by: Michael Fimognari

Starring: Lana Condor and Noah Centineo

Two stars

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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Airev
Started: September 2023
Founder: Muhammad Khalid
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: Generative AI
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
 
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?

The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.

Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.

New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.

“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.

The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.

The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.

Bloomberg

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