Liquefied natural gas tankers, the costliest ships to insure and the last to risk the Strait of Hormuz, are rushing to leave the Gulf as the US and Iran near a preliminary deal on Friday to restore safe passage.
Only 15 LNG carriers have left the region in those months, most with the help of dark or unknown routing, Kpler data shows, though exits are now increasing in anticipation of the agreement. Before the war, nearly 20 per cent of the world’s LNG flowed through the Strait of Hormuz.
The exits track a steep drop in volumes, with Qatari LNG shipments from Ras Laffan falling to 0.42 million tonnes in June from 6.16 million in February, a 93 per cent decline. Exports from the UAE's Das Island dropped to 0.06 million tonnes this month, from 0.38 million.
Five laden carriers remain inside the Gulf. Al Ghashamiya has been dark for more than four days but has been tracked by satellite heading towards the strait. Patris is idle and likely to stay that way this week. Mraikh is bound for Pakistan with discharge expected on June 18, and Umm Al Amad is scheduled to unload at Al Zour today. Al Sahla is still loading at Ras Laffan according to Marine Traffic data.
Among recent crossings, the Indian carrier Disha left on the International Maritime Organisation approved route on June 14, its first crossing in about three months and the only large energy vessel to clear the strait that day. It followed Lebrethah, Al Daayen and Rasheeda.
LNG carriers have been the slowest to move. They are among the most expensive vessels afloat and carry high insurance risk, giving them the lowest risk tolerance of any class. Tankers and dry bulk are expected to recover first, containers next and LNG last, according to a Kpler assessment from April.
On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that QatarEnergy told buyers it expects to raise output to about 50 per cent of capacity a month after safe passage is restored, and roughly 80 per cent within two months.
Gradual resumption
Resumption of LNG traffic across the strait is expected to be gradual rather than a full restart once the deal is finalised, according to Junlin Wang, an analyst for gas and LNG research at Rystad Energy.
“Following the US-announced Iran deal over the weekend, we have not seen a rapid normalisation of LNG traffic yet," Ms Wang said. "We might see a few more LNG crossings in the coming days, but I would expect them to remain selective rather than a full normalisation."
She added that shipowners are still cautious given their safety concerns and confidence may take time to rebuild.
Qatar and the UAE are important suppliers of LNG in global markets, with the two countries accounting for 19.5 per cent of global exports in 2025, at about 86.5 million tonnes, or about 7.2 million tonnes a month, according to analysis by Rystad Energy.
The destination exposure is heavily Asia-oriented. In 2025, nearly 23 per cent of LNG from Qatar and the UAE flowed to China, 16.6 per cent to India, 9.3 per cent to Taiwan, 8.2 per cent to South Korea, 8.2 per cent to Pakistan and 4.9 per cent to Japan.
Together, these six Asian markets absorbed around 70 per cent of exports from Qatar and the UAE, with smaller volumes received in Europe by Italy, Belgium, Poland, the UK and Spain.
LNG is a key fuel and feedstock for heating, electricity generation and industrial usage across many economies in Asia, Europe and other regions.
India faced a significant LNG supply shock this year because of the conflict involving Iran and the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. It looked to alternative sources of supply from the US and Nigeria to overcome the crisis. The resumption of Middle East supply is expected to support its economy and lower its import bills.
