Navigational safety and security will be central to the restoration of shipping activity along the Strait of Hormuz, shipping operators and experts said on Monday while welcoming the announcement from the US and Iran to reopen the waterway in the Arabian Gulf and end the three-month-old war.
“The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a welcome development for global shipping and trade. Any reduction in regional tensions will be viewed positively by shipowners, charterers, insurers, cargo interests, and the wider maritime community,” Capt Farhad Patel, director of Dubai-based Sharaf Shipping Agency, told The National.
“However, the resumption of transit should be seen as the beginning of a normalisation process rather than an immediate return to pre-disruption conditions. Vessel operators will continue to assess security, insurance, navigational safety and official guidance before restoring routine trading patterns."
US President Donald Trump announced the deal to end the war with Iran on Monday.
In a social media post on Truth Social, he authorised the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, from which more than 20 per cent of the global supply of crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows daily.
“Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow,” Mr Trump said.
The development came after more than three months of intense fighting between the two sides, which has disrupted trade and oil flows across the strait and affected economic activity in the region.
Although Iran and the US announced a ceasefire agreement on April 8, fighting continued, with the US bombing Iranian sites last week and Tehran attacking Kuwait and Bahrain in retaliation, which led to the death of one person in Kuwait.
Shipping activity across the strait came to a near halt as the two sides fought, with only a few ships crossing the strait on a daily basis compared to more than 100 before the conflict broke out on February 28.
“After more than 15 weeks of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz this is good news for us, for our crews, and for our customers,” a representative for German shipping firm Hapag-Lloyd said. “We hope that all remaining vessels will be able to cross the Strait of Hormuz this week.”
Hapag-Lloyd had told The National that four of its vessels were stuck in the Arabian Gulf.
“We have seen an increase in ships transiting the strait last week, however, there is no indication that the announcement of an agreement has changed the situation yet,” Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at Bimco shipping association, said.
There were 483 vessels that were effectively trapped in the Arabian Gulf, of which about 220 are tankers, the latest Kpler data showed. That includes crude, product and other tanker segments, alongside non-tanker commercial vessels.
Over the weekend, there were 14 total crossings, with most activity reported on Friday, with 10 crossings.
There were two eastbound transits through the strait by cargo-carrying vessels, including one LNG tanker and one general cargo ship as of Monday 1.49pm UAE time, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
It is expected to take several days for all ships to leave the Arabian Gulf.
“The simple arithmetic points to around 30 to 35 days if we assume about 15 safe transits per day, mostly moving west-to-east or out of the gulf,” said Ana Subasic, trade risk analyst at Kpler.
She added that more realistic range would be about four to eight weeks, unless transit rates ramp quickly and inbound traffic is restricted.
Threat of sea mines
The threat of mines remains a concern for shipowners.
“The Iranians have claimed initially the water was mined but it is still not clear whether mines have been cleared for safe navigation of vessels,” said Saibal Mazumdar, managing director of Alpha Breakbulk shipping.
“Clearance of mines is essential for normal operations to resume.”
Jakob Larsen, the chief safety and security officer at Bimco, also voiced similar concern about the threat of mines.
“It is concern immediately as well as further down the line and mine-free routes need to be established. Credible assurances from both sides of the conflict must be given before traffic can resume fully to pre-conflict levels,” Mr Larsen said, while adding the security situation for the shipping industry remains volatile and it is still very risky for ships to commence transits at this point.
In April, the Pentagon informed Congress that it could take six months to clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines planted by the Iranian military, in a classified briefing leaked to The Washington Post. Mine clearance could be carried out only when the war ends, meaning the conflict’s economic impact could extend into late this year or beyond.
“Owners, charterers and insurers will need confidence that the route is safe, including clarity on mine risks, naval co-ordination, traffic separation, potential spoofing or jamming, and the risk of renewed escalation,” Ms Subasic said.
“Even if the waterway is declared open, vessel behaviour may remain cautious until safe-passage procedures are proven.”
