“The only thing prohibiting transit in the Strait [of Hormuz] right now is Iran shooting at shipping. It is open for transit should Iran not do that.”
The words of US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth are not reassuring for those sailors and shipowners charged with navigating the narrow waterway. At least 22 vessels have been attacked in and around the Gulf since the start of the Iran war already.
An argument has erupted about whether the US properly planned for this war – and specifically for the closure of the strait. The easy victory of seizing Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro may have fooled members of President Donald Trump's administration into thinking that operations against Iran would be similarly quick and decisive.
The strait remains closed more than two weeks into this war, oil prices are more than $100 per barrel and there is no credible plan for reopening it.
After rubbishing Nato allies’ contributions to US efforts in Afghanistan and now in this conflict, Mr Trump has now asked not just France and the UK, but even America's adversary China, to send ships to protect the waterway. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright had to withdraw a hasty post saying incorrectly that the US military escorted a tanker through the strait.
Kharg Island attack
Early on Saturday morning, the US bombed military sites on Kharg Island in the northern Gulf, Iran’s main oil export point.
“I have chosen not to wipe out the oil Infrastructure on the island," Mr Trump said. "However, should Iran … do anything to interfere with the free and safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider.”
As far back as 1988, Mr Trump had advocated seizing Kharg. This major escalation smells of improvisation, spurred by the weird fetish many US strategists seem to have about this tiny scrap of coral that doesn’t have Iran’s oil, but simply enables the country to export it. Attacking the island risks further retaliation by Iran against the region’s energy systems. If it cannot export oil, Tehran will think, why should anyone else?
Proper planning
The US military has made detailed plans for Hormuz over many years. They generally considered they could reopen it within a few weeks.
The key questions are: do those plans, focused on sea mines and small boats, properly account for the changed nature of warfare in the drone era? Will ships sail though as normal if some level of danger remains? And, most importantly, did the civilian leadership of the war think through any of the very predictable consequences of a closure of the strait?
The US assembled its forces in the region ponderously, and chose the timing of the attack. It was always expected that mines would be a big part of any Iranian attempt to block the strait. Yet in January, the US Navy decommissioned its only four purpose-built minesweepers, stationed in Bahrain for the entire post-Cold War period, and sent them home. Their replacement is untested.
US Marines are now being moved to the Middle East from Japan, perhaps to seize Kharg or coastal points, but will take two weeks to arrive. For a war intended, as Mr Trump has indicated, to last five to six weeks, they are turning up later than the Dead Men of Dunharrow in the Lord of the Rings.
The effectiveness of drones against energy targets has been amply displayed over four years in the Ukraine war, as well as Iran’s use of them against oilfields in Iraq and Saudi Arabia numerous times from 2019. But only on Friday did the US announce the dispatch of interceptor drones.
Iran’s attacks on oil storage in Salalah, southern Oman, on Thursday and on Fujairah port in the UAE on Saturday, show that reopening Hormuz alone is not enough. Both these ports are well outside Hormuz. The long range of Houthi rebel attacks from Yemen since late 2023 already demonstrated the risk.
Strategic reserves
The US ran down its strategic petroleum reserve in 2022 to ease oil prices during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Department of Energy refilled it by less than 10 per cent when opportunity beckoned late last year with moderate oil prices. Despite a capacity of 714 million barrels, the reserve is barely half-full, with 415 million barrels. Almost half of this, 172 million barrels, will now be released to replace a little of the oil bottled up in the Gulf, leaving barely enough for one more such action.
Meanwhile, China took the chance to put more than one million barrels per day into its strategic stocks last year, swelling them to 1.2 billion barrels.
The US also undermined its campaign against Russia by easing sanctions on Russian oil exports, which will not do much to bring down prices, but will bolster the Kremlin’s coffers. Russia is reported to be helping Iran with drone tactics and targeting.
Helium crisis
The US also finished selling off its helium reserve in June 2024, a process that began in 1996. Qatar normally produces about 36 per cent of the world's helium, which has now been largely cut off.
The light gas is crucial in the industry of chip making, central to US plans to compete with China and maintain its leadership in artificial intelligence.
Mr Trump launched “Project Vault” last month, a $12 billion stockpile of critical minerals for defence and technology, but the 60 minerals on the list – including common substances such as aluminium, lead and coal – do not cover helium.
In contrast to the lack of preparation from the US, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have activated plans to keep their oil running as much as possible. They are using their bypass pipelines, have well-protected underground strategic stocks and are providing oil to customers from their overseas storage.
The countries have also built air defences that have, on the whole, performed well. They are ready to restart full production and exports, when possible and safe.
In the line of fire
But Gulf states have been treated badly by the US, which launched the war without forethought, clear aims or plans for the inevitable consequences. Oman, which worked hard to mediate between the US and Iran over years and in the run-up to the conflict, saw its efforts to enable a deal spurned.
Israel has also treated Gulf states badly. Its attack on Doha in September already showed it cared little for the security of the Gulf states.
Iran also attacked civilian targets throughout the Gulf, including key energy installations with no military function. Traditionally neutral Oman has been hit repeatedly. The UAE has borne the brunt of Iranian air attacks, despite its long-standing efforts to maintain constructive economic relations with its neighbour, even under the constraints of ever weightier sanctions.
Gulf nations have taken their responsibility to global energy users seriously. It is a farce, quickly becoming a tragedy, that others have not.
Robin M Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
