Rare earths and real risk: Why the global supply chain needs a rethink

Miners at the Bayan Obo mine containing rare earth minerals, in Inner Mongolia, China. Reuters

They are buried in our smartphones, embedded in EV motors, and essential to jet engines and wind turbines. Yet most people could not name a single rare earth element. This quiet invisibility belies their strategic importance. As the world accelerates towards a more digital and electrified future, rare earths have become indispensable – and increasingly, a source of geopolitical friction.

The global supply chain behind these elements is under pressure. China currently produces nearly 70 per cent of rare earth ores and holds more than 95 per cent of global refining and separation capacity. For heavy rare earths, that number is closer to total control. This concentration gives China significant influence over price, availability and access to materials that power the energy transition and advanced defence technologies. In short, it is not just an economic advantage. It is a position of systemic control.

But the challenges do not end with geographic concentration. The industry also struggles with what is known as the “balance problem”. Not all rare earths are created equal. High-demand elements like neodymium and praseodymium, crucial for permanent magnets in electric vehicles and wind turbines, are co-mined with lower-demand elements such as cerium and lanthanum. Producers must extract and process everything, regardless of market demand. That creates inefficiencies, price distortions and sustainability concerns.

This imbalance has strategic consequences. Without careful co-ordination, demand for magnet rare earths could outpace supply within the next decade. That does not mean catastrophe, but it does mean rising costs, tighter margins, and a squeeze on industries that depend on long-term stability.

Momentum is finally shifting. As the urgency to diversify supply chains intensifies, ion adsorption clay (IAC) deposits have come into focus – and not just in China and Myanmar, where they have long been tapped.

Exploration efforts are under way in countries like Brazil, Uganda and South-east Asia, offering new access to heavy rare earths. Unlike traditional hard-rock mines, IAC operations can reach production in just four to seven years, giving them a distinct strategic and commercial advantage.

Refining is the next major hurdle. Mining rare earths without the ability to refine them only shifts the bottleneck, it does not solve it. Today, the vast majority of REE concentrates – even those mined outside China – are still sent back for processing. But that is beginning to change. Companies like Lynas in Malaysia, MP Materials in the US, and Neo Performance Materials in Estonia are building local refining capacity. These efforts mark early steps towards a more regionally balanced and secure supply chain.

Innovation is also reshaping what’s possible across the value chain. Manufacturing techniques like grain boundary diffusion allow for the reduction of dysprosium and terbium usage without compromising performance – a potential game changer given their sensitivity to supply shocks. Meanwhile, magnet recycling and by-product recovery from sources like phosphogypsum offer alternative streams of material with lower environmental impact.

A co-ordinated, multinational response is essential. The US, Japan and Australia have launched public-private initiatives to diversify rare earth supply chains and strengthen refining capabilities. It is not just about securing raw materials. It is about ensuring that economic resilience and national security are not tied to a single point of failure.

For those deeply involved in the rare earth ecosystem, from miners and refiners to end users and policymakers, the issues at stake go well beyond geology or engineering. They are a test of foresight and preparedness. The companies and countries that invest, innovate, and collaborate today will be the ones best positioned to thrive in the next era of industrial transformation.

The 20th century was powered by oil. The 21st will be driven by rare earths. Those who recognise this early and act decisively will shape the future.