Iraq's oil ministry said on Friday that it will announce the resumption of oil exports from the Iraqi Kurdistan region within the “coming hours”, ending a nearly two-year dispute over crude shipments.
The country will announce the direct export of the region's oil through the state-run oil marketing company SOMO via the Turkish Ceyhan port, starting at an initial rate of 185,000 barrels per day (bpd), which will be gradually increased, the ministry said.
A 970km pipeline transports Iraqi crude oil, primarily from Iraq’s Kirkuk area to export terminals at Ceyhan, on Turkey's Mediterranean coast.
In March 2023, Turkey suspended the flow of about 450,000 barrels of Iraqi oil daily through the Ceyhan pipeline, with roughly 370,000 bpd originating from the Iraqi Kurdistan region.
The stoppage came after an arbitration court ruled in favour of Baghdad, saying Ankara had breached a 1973 agreement when it allowed the Iraqi Kurdistan administration to pump without the consent of the federal government in Baghdad.
Since then, Baghdad and the region have failed to agree on issues related to resumption of exports, including the approval of deals the Kurds signed unilaterally with oil companies and a system for the payment of developers.
However, several oil companies operating in the Kurdistan region said they would not resume exports today.
The Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (Apikur), composed of eight international oil companies that produce more than 60 per cent of Kurdistan's oil, said its members had not received any outreach from the Iraqi government to establish new agreements ensuring payment for past and future exports in line with their existing terms.
“We remain ready to meet with appropriate officials to discuss these issues and restore exports of oil for the benefit of all Iraqi people,” the group said in a statement to The National.
Comments from Kurdish officials contacted by The National also indicated a delay in the resumption of exports. The actual date for a resumption remains unknown, with a Kurdish official from the presidency office saying: “There is no specific day.”
People close to the negotiations suggest Kurdish oil exports to Ceyhan port, and subsequently to Mediterranean markets, are likely to restart soon, possibly within the first week of March, though no precise date is available, another official in the Kurdish regional government said.
Last week, Reuters cited sources as saying that the Trump administration has been piling pressure on Iraq to allow Kurdish oil exports to restart or face sanctions alongside Iran.
Growing pressure from the Trump administration was a key factor behind Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani’s surprise announcement last Monday of plans to resume exports from Kurdistan this week, the report said.
An adviser to Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani denied the report, saying there had been no threat of sanctions “or any form of pressure” on Iraq in all the contacts that had taken place with the US administration recently.
“My understanding is that Trump wants more oil production [to further] his geopolitical objectives vis-à-vis Russia and Ukraine,” said Zahra Ladha, a geopolitical analyst.
“That's the backdrop against which we've seen this happen, because the export of oil from the Kurdistan region is more like a domestic issue between the two centres of power in Iraq – Baghdad and Erbil,” she told The National.
Oil prices fell on Friday and were on track to record their first monthly loss since November. Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, was trading 0.74 per cent lower at $73.49 a barrel at 1.56pm UAE time. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge that tracks US crude, was down 0.97 per cent at $69.67 a barrel.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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In Full Flight: A Story of Africa and Atonement
John Heminway, Knopff
The Bio
Name: Lynn Davison
Profession: History teacher at Al Yasmina Academy, Abu Dhabi
Children: She has one son, Casey, 28
Hometown: Pontefract, West Yorkshire in the UK
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite Author: CJ Sansom
Favourite holiday destination: Bali
Favourite food: A Sunday roast
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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