Opec on Thursday stuck to its forecast for oil demand growth for 2023 and 2024 and said it expects the global economy to grow at a faster pace this year.
World oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, compared with a growth of 2.44 million bpd this year, Opec said in its monthly oil market report.
Both forecasts were unchanged from last month’s assessment.
However, the oil producer’s group now expects the global economy to grow by 2.8 per cent this year, up slightly from its previous projection of 2.7 per cent growth.
“Emerging economies in Asia, notably India, as well as Brazil and Russia may outperform expectations with improvements in domestic demand and external trade,” Opec said.
“In 2024, solid global economic growth, amid continued improvements in China, is expected to further boost oil consumption,” the group said.
The Asian country's post-coronavirus economic recovery has lost momentum mainly due to a deepening property slump and weak consumer spending.
China, the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, has announced a string of stimulus measures, including halving the stamp duty on stock transactions and easing mortgage rates.
Opec raised its forecast for 2023 non-Opec supply growth to 1.7 million bpd from 1.6 million bpd and said the increase would be mostly driven by the US, Brazil, Norway, Kazakhstan, Guyana and China.
For 2024, non-Opec crude supply is expected to expand by 1.4 million bpd, unchanged from the previous month.
Opec’s crude oil production in September rose by 273,000 bpd to 27.75 million bpd, the group said, citing secondary sources.
On October 4, the Opec+ group of crude oil-producing states decided to stick to its current output policy.
Opec+ members Saudi Arabia and Russia have reaffirmed their collective supply cut of 1.3 million bpd to the end of the year.
The group has enforced total production curbs of 3.66 million bpd, or about 3.7 per cent of global demand.
This includes a reduction of 2 million bpd agreed on last year, and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million bpd, announced in April and extended to December 2024.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency has slashed its oil demand growth forecast for next year, citing a “deteriorating economic climate”, which will weigh on crude consumption.
Global oil demand is now expected to expand by nearly 900,000 bpd next year, down from the agency’s previous forecast of a growth of 1 million bpd, the IEA said in its monthly oil market report on Thursday.
Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund kept its global economic expansion forecast for 2023 at 3 per cent, below the 3.5 per cent expansion recorded last year, retaining the historical growth average of 3.8 per cent.
The fund estimates growth to hit 2.9 per cent next year, a 0.1 percentage point downgrade from the IMF forecast in July.
Things Heard & Seen
Directed by: Shari Springer Berman, Robert Pulcini
Starring: Amanda Seyfried, James Norton
2/5
BRAZIL%20SQUAD
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Three tips from La Perle's performers
1 The kind of water athletes drink is important. Gwilym Hooson, a 28-year-old British performer who is currently recovering from knee surgery, found that out when the company was still in Studio City, training for 12 hours a day. “The physio team was like: ‘Why is everyone getting cramps?’ And then they realised we had to add salt and sugar to the water,” he says.
2 A little chocolate is a good thing. “It’s emergency energy,” says Craig Paul Smith, La Perle’s head coach and former Cirque du Soleil performer, gesturing to an almost-empty open box of mini chocolate bars on his desk backstage.
3 Take chances, says Young, who has worked all over the world, including most recently at Dragone’s show in China. “Every time we go out of our comfort zone, we learn a lot about ourselves,” she says.
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
'Brazen'
Director: Monika Mitchell
Starring: Alyssa Milano, Sam Page, Colleen Wheeler
Rating: 3/5
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20electric%20motors%20with%20102kW%20battery%20pack%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E570hp%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20890Nm%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERange%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Up%20to%20428km%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1%2C700%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
If you go
Flight connections to Ulaanbaatar are available through a variety of hubs, including Seoul and Beijing, with airlines including Mongolian Airlines and Korean Air. While some nationalities, such as Americans, don’t need a tourist visa for Mongolia, others, including UAE citizens, can obtain a visa on arrival, while others including UK citizens, need to obtain a visa in advance. Contact the Mongolian Embassy in the UAE for more information.
Nomadic Road offers expedition-style trips to Mongolia in January and August, and other destinations during most other months. Its nine-day August 2020 Mongolia trip will cost from $5,250 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, two nights’ hotel accommodation in Ulaanbaatar, vehicle rental, fuel, third party vehicle liability insurance, the services of a guide and support team, accommodation, food and entrance fees; nomadicroad.com
A fully guided three-day, two-night itinerary at Three Camel Lodge costs from $2,420 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, accommodation, meals and excursions including the Yol Valley and Flaming Cliffs. A return internal flight from Ulaanbaatar to Dalanzadgad costs $300 per person and the flight takes 90 minutes each way; threecamellodge.com
