Brent, the benchmark for more than half of the world’s crude oil, is likely to "overshoot" $125 a barrel next year and $150 in 2023, in large part because Opec's spare capacity is below market expectations and impedes its ability to respond to high oil prices, according to JPMorgan.
Underinvestment in the sector over the past 18 months caused by the coronavirus pandemic has hit the output capacity of many producer countries and their ability to respond to recovering oil demand, America's largest lender said in a report this week.
“For at least the next three to four years, the ability of Opec+ to respond to recovering oil demand is challenged,” Christyan Malek, JPMorgan's head of oil and gas research, and other analysts said in the report.
“Our analysis suggests that apart from a small group of nations with very sound plans, all other countries face risk from factors such as delayed capital investment plans due to the pandemic, tougher geology in new fields, increasingly complex fluid in new reservoirs and natural declines in core assets.”
The bank expects that Opec+’s spare capacity, a closely watched metric that measures the amount of barrels that can swiftly be added to the market, will be about 2 million barrels a day in 2022, which is 43 per cent below consensus estimates of 4.8 million bpd.
It anticipates the group’s total capacity shortfall increasing to 3 million bpd by the first half of 2024.
Leading analysts and industry executives have cited the lack of investments in the oil and gas sector.
Dr Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and group chief executive of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, recently told the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference the global oil and gas industry requires more than $600 billion of investment annually until 2030.
"After almost a decade of underinvestment in our industry, the world has sleepwalked into a supply crunch. It is time to wake up," Dr Al Jaber said.
Longer-term oil prices of $80 a barrel are likely to be needed to spur the investment required to increase capacity as demand grows, and oil is likely to trade around this price from 2024, JPMorgan said.
Brent is expected to rise to $90 a barrel in 2022 with an upside scenario of $125 a barrel. In 2023, it is forecast to increase to $104 a barrel with the potential to rise to as much as $150 a barrel, the bank said.
Brent is up about 40 per cent year-to-date and trading at $72.20 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the gauge which tracks US crude, has gained about 42 per cent since the start of the year and trading at $69.02 a barrel at 1.38pm UAE time on Wednesday.
JPMorgan highlighted the role of Opec+ in balancing oil markets and said the group has “returned to a position of positive leverage which it will defend by keeping inventories low, the market in balance and taking action to support optimal reservoir management through paced volume growth”.
The Opec+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, executed a historic reduction of 9.7 million bpd between May 2020 and July this year but has tapered the supply cuts as demand improved.
Opec+ agreed to increase output by 400,000 bpd in December, despite the pressure from the US to bring on additional supply. It stuck to its earlier agreement to bring a total supply of 2 million bpd back to markets by the end of the year.
“We think Opec+ will slow committed increases in early 2022, and believe the group is unlikely to increase supply unless oil prices are well underpinned, as this secures a balanced market which can tolerate future waves of Covid-related demand shocks,” JPMorgan said.
The policy will also give producer reservoirs "a breather" to improve the resilience of spare capacity, according to the investment bank.
The group is meeting on December 2 to review production levels. The meeting takes place as the Omicron coronavirus variant discovered in South Africa poses a challenge to oil demand growth, with some countries reimposing movement restrictions and suspending flights to contain the spread of the virus.
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Safety 'top priority' for rival hyperloop company
The chief operating officer of Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, Andres de Leon, said his company's hyperloop technology is “ready” and safe.
He said the company prioritised safety throughout its development and, last year, Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance companies, announced it was ready to insure their technology.
“Our levitation, propulsion, and vacuum technology have all been developed [...] over several decades and have been deployed and tested at full scale,” he said in a statement to The National.
“Only once the system has been certified and approved will it move people,” he said.
HyperloopTT has begun designing and engineering processes for its Abu Dhabi projects and hopes to break ground soon.
With no delivery date yet announced, Mr de Leon said timelines had to be considered carefully, as government approval, permits, and regulations could create necessary delays.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League last-16, second leg:
Real Madrid 1 (Asensio 70'), Ajax 4 (Ziyech 7', Neres 18', Tadic 62', Schone 72')
Ajax win 5-3 on aggregate
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
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What to watch out for:
Algae, waste coffee grounds and orange peels will be used in the pavilion's walls and gangways
The hulls of three ships will be used for the roof
The hulls will painted to make the largest Italian tricolour in the country’s history
Several pillars more than 20 metres high will support the structure
Roughly 15 tonnes of steel will be used
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
What is safeguarding?
“Safeguarding, not just in sport, but in all walks of life, is making sure that policies are put in place that make sure your child is safe; when they attend a football club, a tennis club, that there are welfare officers at clubs who are qualified to a standard to make sure your child is safe in that environment,” Derek Bell explains.
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Gully Boy
Director: Zoya Akhtar
Producer: Excel Entertainment & Tiger Baby
Cast: Ranveer Singh, Alia Bhatt, Kalki Koechlin, Siddhant Chaturvedi
Rating: 4/5 stars
Gender equality in the workplace still 200 years away
It will take centuries to achieve gender parity in workplaces around the globe, according to a December report from the World Economic Forum.
The WEF study said there had been some improvements in wage equality in 2018 compared to 2017, when the global gender gap widened for the first time in a decade.
But it warned that these were offset by declining representation of women in politics, coupled with greater inequality in their access to health and education.
At current rates, the global gender gap across a range of areas will not close for another 108 years, while it is expected to take 202 years to close the workplace gap, WEF found.
The Geneva-based organisation's annual report tracked disparities between the sexes in 149 countries across four areas: education, health, economic opportunity and political empowerment.
After years of advances in education, health and political representation, women registered setbacks in all three areas this year, WEF said.
Only in the area of economic opportunity did the gender gap narrow somewhat, although there is not much to celebrate, with the global wage gap narrowing to nearly 51 per cent.
And the number of women in leadership roles has risen to 34 per cent globally, WEF said.
At the same time, the report showed there are now proportionately fewer women than men participating in the workforce, suggesting that automation is having a disproportionate impact on jobs traditionally performed by women.
And women are significantly under-represented in growing areas of employment that require science, technology, engineering and mathematics skills, WEF said.
* Agence France Presse
Du Plessis plans his retirement
South Africa captain Faf du Plessis said on Friday the Twenty20 World Cup in Australia in two years' time will be his last.
Du Plessis, 34, who has led his country in two World T20 campaigns, in 2014 and 2016, is keen to play a third but will then step aside.
"The T20 World Cup in 2020 is something I'm really looking forward to. I think right now that will probably be the last tournament for me," he said in Brisbane ahead of a one-off T20 against Australia on Saturday.
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