Global warming will not be contained if measures are not taken to reduce carbon emissions in the energy sector, the International Energy Agency has warned.
But temperature rises can be mitigated if governments implement a series of reforms - ranging from energy efficiency to subsidy cuts - that do not imperil economic growth, said the agency.
The energy sector, which encompasses power plants as well as oil and gas production, accounts for roughly two thirds of greenhouse gas emissions, according to the IEA. At the current energy consumption trajectory, global warming will exceed the 2°C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels that is regarded as an acceptable increase.
"Amid concerns over global economic pressures, climate change has quite frankly slipped to the back-burner of policy priorities," said Maria van der Hoeven,the IEA's executive director. "But the problem is not going away - quite the opposite."
Unless measures are taken, carbon emissions are set to drive up the global temperature by between 3.6°C and 5.3°C, projects the IEA. Last year, the energy sector emitted a record 31.6 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide (CO2) gases, an increase of 1.4 per cent.
While the international community has agreed to reduce emissions to keep the rise in temperature within the 2°C limit, negotiations are set to last until 2015, and no binding targets will be implemented before 2020. The agency advocates four measures that governments can implement to reduce emissions growth to 2020 by 8 per cent, or the equivalent of 3.1 Gt of Co2 gases:
• Improved energy efficiency in buildings, industry and transport could account for almost half of these prevented emissions, said the IEA;
• Twenty per cent of reductions could come from taking offline the worst polluting coal-fired power plants and replacing the lost capacity with renewable energy and natural-gas-fired plants. Coal is the dirtiest of the fossil fuels, while gas is the cheapest;
•A similar effect would be achieved by preventing methane gases emanating from oil and gas production sites from escaping into the atmosphere;
• A partial phase-out on fuel subsidies would contribute about 12 per cent of the reductions.
The costs of these measures would be more than compensated by investment needed to alleviate the damage by inaction prior to 2020, said the IEA.
"Delaying stronger climate action to 2020 would come at a cost to the energy sector: US$1.5 trillion in low-carbon investments would be avoided before 2020, but $5tn in additional investments would be required thereafter to get the world back on track," said Ms van der Hoeven.
While the second worst emitter of CO2 per capita, the UAE is also in a position to implement most of the IEA recommendations. A rampant increase in the consumption of electricity could be curbed by energy-efficient building design. One of the world's largest oil producers, the country could significantly reduce methane emissions from its oil operations. Electricity and fuel remains heavily subsidised in the UAE.
In the Middle East as a whole, energy-related emissions increased by more than 3 per cent last year on the back of rising electricity use and subsidies, said the IEA.
