Egypt, the region's most populous country, has among the lowest milk consumption rates per capita in the world.
Egypt, the region's most populous country, has among the lowest milk consumption rates per capita in the world.

Egypt dairy giant aims to milk market position



Juhayna, Egypt's largest player in the dairy market, is hoping to convince Egyptians milk is good for the nation as well as the company's share price.

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The company reported yesterday a 12 per cent rise in the first-half net profit to 112.2 million Egyptian pounds, from 100.4m pounds in the same period last year.

Egypt, the region's most populous country, has among the lowest milk consumption rates per capita in the world.

Juhayna could produce double-digit earnings growth due to the country's favourable demographics, as well as increased awareness of the health benefits of drinking milk, said Hatem Alaa, an analyst at AlembicHC in Cairo. Mr Alaa has an "overweight" rating on the stock.

Juhayna is positioning itself to capture growth in the sector by investing in logistics. It owns and operates 532 vans and 22 distribution centres across the country, allowing it to reach about 70 per cent of the retail market, and plans to add about 240 vans and six more distribution centres this year.

It was also considered a positive sign that Juhayna raised milk prices by 10 per cent last month with little impact on sales.

The company raised 999m Egyptian pounds in an initial public offering (IPO) in July last year. Those proceeds are mostly being invested in dairy farms with the goal of producing 50 per cent of the company's raw materials, up from 10 per cent currently.

Shares of Juhayna have already risen by 17.5 per cent since the IPO while the EGX30 Index has gone down by almost 30 per cent during the same period.

Mr Alaa forecasts the company to show 28 per cent earnings growth up until 2015. He said he preferred Juhayna over its regional competitor, Saudi Arabia's Almarai.

"We see greater potential for upside surprises for Juhayna in the medium to long term, given the huge potential for Egypt's dairy market versus Saudi Arabia's, where annual growth is capped at between 10 and 12 per cent," Mr Alaa said.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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