The uncertainty about the Parliament vote has driven the pound down for a third consecutive week toward $1.27. AFP
The uncertainty about the Parliament vote has driven the pound down for a third consecutive week toward $1.27. AFP

Pound on wild ride as market watches Parliament's Brexit decision



As the countdown to the Brexit divorce deal’s judgment day begins, pound investors will be following the mood in Parliament to gauge its chances of survival.

Sterling will be vulnerable to swings on signs that lawmaker opposition to the deal is increasing or waning during debates that kick off on December 4, ahead of a vote a week later. Butterfly options, a measure of the likelihood of big moves in the currency, are well above this year’s average after spiking last month.

“It is impossible to predict when someone could say something that moves the pound,” said Esther Reichelt, a currency strategist at Commerzbank. “We’re basically constantly keeping our eyes on sterling and Brexit-related news flow.”

The uncertainty about the Parliament vote has driven the pound down for a third consecutive week toward $1.27, leaving it as one of the worst-performing Group-of-10 currencies this year. A Bloomberg survey of strategists and fund managers saw a 55 per cent chance that lawmakers will reject the divorce deal.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May needs 320 votes for her deal to be approved, and that’s looking unlikely. While many members of her own Conservative Party are against it, Ms May won backing from two prominent pro-Brexit ministers this week, including International Trade Secretary Liam Fox.

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Traders will be watching for details of attempted tweaks to the bill, which could make the agreement more palatable. Both Ms May and her European Union counterparts have said the existing deal is the only one on the table, yet the prime minister has backed down from trying to prevent amendments.

Failure would open up “massively diverging implications” for the pound, ranging from $1.10 on a no-deal scenario to $1.35 on a second referendum, according to Neil Jones, head of hedge fund currency sales at Mizuho Bank.

“The pound should continue to decline next week and into December 11 on the principle of uncertainty,” Mr Jones said. “The next two weeks should be very interesting, at the very least will keep volatility alive.”

SERIE A FIXTURES

Saturday (UAE kick-off times)

Atalanta v Juventus (6pm)

AC Milan v Napoli (9pm)

Torino v Inter Milan (11.45pm)

Sunday

Bologna v Parma (3.30pm)

Sassuolo v Lazio (6pm)

Roma v Brescia (6pm)

Verona v Fiorentina (6pm)

Sampdoria v Udinese (9pm)

Lecce v Cagliari (11.45pm)

Monday

SPAL v Genoa (11.45pm)

GOLF’S RAHMBO

- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)

Top 10 in the F1 drivers' standings

1. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 202 points

2. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes-GP 188

3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes-GP 169

4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull Racing 117

5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 116

6. Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing 67

7. Sergio Perez, Force India 56

8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 45

9. Carlos Sainz Jr, Toro Rosso 35

10. Nico Hulkenberg, Renault 26

Four-day collections of TOH

Day             Indian Rs (Dh)        

Thursday    500.75 million (25.23m)

Friday         280.25m (14.12m)

Saturday     220.75m (11.21m)

Sunday       170.25m (8.58m)

Total            1.19bn (59.15m)

(Figures in millions, approximate)

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

Results:

5pm: Handicap (PA) | Dh80,000 | 1,600 metres

Winner: Dasan Da, Saeed Al Mazrooei (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)

5.30pm: Maiden (PA) | Dh80,000 | 1,600m

Winner: AF Saabah, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel

6pm: Handicap (PA) | Dh80,000 | 1,600m

Winner: Mukaram, Pat Cosgrave, Eric Lemartinel

6.30pm: Handicap (PA) | Dh80,000 | 2,200m

Winner: MH Tawag, Richard Mullen, Elise Jeanne

7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) | Dh70,000 | 1,400m

Winner: RB Inferno, Fabrice Veron, Ismail Mohammed

7.30pm: Handicap (TB) | Dh100,000 | 1,600m

Winner: Juthoor, Jim Crowley, Erwan Charpy

Sarfira

Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad

Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal 

Rating: 2/5

ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA

Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi

Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser

Rating: 4.5/5

Blue%20Beetle
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Angel%20Manuel%20Soto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EXolo%20Mariduena%2C%20Adriana%20Barraza%2C%20Damian%20Alcazar%2C%20Raoul%20Max%20Trujillo%2C%20Susan%20Sarandon%2C%20George%20Lopez%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Europe’s rearming plan
  • Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
  • Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
  • Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
  • Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
  • Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

The years Ramadan fell in May

1987

1954

1921

1888

Ticket prices
  • Golden circle - Dh995
  • Floor Standing - Dh495
  • Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
  • Lower Bowl premium - Dh795
  • Lower Bowl Plus - Dh695
  • Lower Bowl Standard- Dh595
  • Upper Bowl Premium - Dh395
  • Upper Bowl standard - Dh295
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING

Director: Christopher McQuarrie

Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg

Rating: 4/5

The Settlers

Director: Louis Theroux

Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz

Rating: 5/5