The UAE is “well positioned” to rank among the world's top five global exporters in the next five years as it boosts trade agreements internationally and extends its role in emerging market trade corridors, according to analysts.
The UAE climbed to ninth place in global goods exports in 2025, up from 17th five years ago, according to figures from the World Trade Organisation (WTO) released on Sunday. The country's total goods and services trade reached $1.637 trillion (Dh6.014 trillion) last year.
“The UAE’s rise into the world’s top 10 exporters marks a structural shift from a regional re-export hub to a globally competitive trade power,” Raymond Khoury, partner and public sector practice lead at Arthur D Little Middle East, said.
“Its rapid climb in just five years reflects a co-ordinated, government-wide strategy ... anchored in diversification across hydrocarbons and refined fuels, metals (notably aluminium), gold and precious stones, machinery and electronics, and high-value re-exports.”
Goods trade accounted for trade worth Dh4.9 trillion last year, while services exceeded the Dh1 trillion mark in trade for the first time, the data shows.
Exports accounted for 53 per cent of the total goods trade and 61.4 per cent of services trade.
“Over the next five years, the UAE is well positioned to move further up the rankings – potentially towards the top five – by accelerating trade agreements, scaling advanced logistics and digital trade capabilities, and deepening its role across emerging market corridors,” Mr Khoury said.
The UAE, which had set the target of achieving Dh4 trillion ($1.08 trillion) in non-oil foreign trade by 2031 as part of its national economic goals, recorded a 26 per cent annual surge in non-oil foreign trade last year to more than $1 trillion.
Non-oil trade in recent years has received a big boost from the signing of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (Cepas) to forge strong trade relations with countries around the world.
The UAE has concluded Cepa agreements with 35 countries, with deals in place with India, Turkey, Jordan, Serbia and Vietnam, among others. It is also in talks with countries such as Nigeria and Rwanda for new deals.
The UAE’s non-oil exports to the 14 countries with whom a Cepa was in force at the end of 2025 recorded a value of Dh175.5 billion, growth of 18.2 per cent, and contributing 21.6 per cent of total exports last year.
Trade with India rose 14.7 per cent in 2025, fuelled by the Cepa that came into effect in May 2022.
“These agreements [Cepas] are designed not only to facilitate trade but to actively encourage investment between partner countries and attract new countries into similar frameworks,” Simon Gordon, managing director of Middle East at Sovereign PPG, said.
“One of the most impactful elements is the lowering or removal of tariffs, which reduces overall costs for both exporters and importers. This creates a mutually beneficial environment where UAE-based businesses can compete more effectively in international markets, while also gaining access to a broader network of suppliers.”
Sectors in focus
There are several sectors that are emerging as strong drivers of future export growth, including FinTech and digital finance as well as payment systems and data-driven solutions, Mr Gordon said.
“In addition, we are seeing a growing shift in agriculture with food and beverages trading activities becoming increasingly common,” he said.
There are also farming initiatives that are beginning to transform the UAE from a primarily import-driven market into one with the capacity to export food and perishables to neighbouring regions.
“Overall, these trends indicate that the UAE is not only increasing export volumes but also diversifying into higher-value, knowledge-based sectors that align with global demand,” Mr Gordon added.
In January this year, the UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Trade also signed an agreement with Abu Dhabi-based artificial intelligence firm Presight to develop a nationwide AI platform aimed at increasing foreign trade.
Under the deal, a series of AI-powered tools will be embedded across the ministry’s core operations, officials said. It will be designed to analyse millions of data points in real time, drawing from sources including ports, shipping routes, customs records, international trade laws and bilateral and multilateral trade agreements.
Dr Thani Al Zeyoudi, Minister of Foreign Trade, said at the time that the platform, once operational, will allow the country to surpass its foreign trade objectives.
War impact on global trade
Globally, the WTO expects global merchandise trade growth to slow to 1.9 per cent this year from 4.6 per cent in 2025 as “trade is expected to normalise following a surge in AI-related products and the front-loading of imports to avoid new tariffs”, it said in its latest report. Together, goods and services trade will grow 2.7 per cent in 2026 compared with 4.7 per cent last year.
However, this scenario excludes energy price shocks.
WTO economists said that the conflict in the Middle East could further reduce trade growth if energy prices remain elevated. Food supplies and services trade will also face pressure due to travel and transport disruptions.
If both crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices remain elevated throughout this year, merchandise trade volumes would grow by 1.4 per cent, while services trade would also grow at a slower rate of 4.1 per cent, the WTO said.
