The International Monetary Fund will send a team to Lebanon at the end of September to continue discussions on Beirut's comprehensive reform programme.
“Discussions on formulating a comprehensive reform programme continue, and the end goal is to eventually have [one] supported by an IMF programme,” IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack said during a press briefing on Thursday.
Since 2019, Lebanon has faced what the World Bank described as one of the worst financial crises since the mid-19th century, with the local currency losing more than 90 per cent of its value and public services collapsing.
The economic troubles were compounded by a string of unrestrained borrowing by multiple governments, the Covid-19 pandemic and a bombing campaign by Israel against Hezbollah that damaged critical infrastructure.
The World Bank estimated that reconstruction and recovery efforts from the war will cost about $11 billion. “Lebanon's economy continues to face major challenges,” Ms Kozack said.
The fund said it expects Lebanon's economy to have contracted by 7.5 per cent in 2024 following a smaller contraction in the previous year.
Lebanon reached a staff-level agreement with the fund in 2022 that would give it access to roughly $3 billion, but authorities at the time said it did not meet the required reforms to unlock it.
IMF staff visited Beirut earlier this year on what it called a fact-finding mission to hold discussions with the new government.
Last month, fugitive tycoon Carlos Ghosn, who is in Lebanon, said the country requires an IMF programme to help provide fiscal discipline rather than for funding. Mr Ghosn told CNN Business Arabic at the time that Lebanon could receive $3 billion through remittances alone, if diaspora had confidence in the government.
Speaking on Thursday, Ms Kozack said fiscal discipline and financing will be required to support Lebanon's economy.
A comprehensive reforms programme that includes social conditions for Lebanese civilians will be needed to support growth and reduce unemployment, the fund said. But financing also has a role to play to support it.
“The discussions that the staff are having with the Lebanese authorities are really to look at what is the right mix of policies and policy reform,” Ms Kozack said.
Ms Kozack added the broader international community will also need to provide financing in addition to what the IMF could provide.
Lebanon has also been making efforts to restore ties with Gulf states to re-open it for tourists and investors. Lebanon is also seeking support from UAE expertise in security and renewable energy, among other key sectors, Lebanon's ambassador to the UAE Fouad Dandan told The National in June.
“The authorities' reform efforts will require significant support from external partners, preferably on highly concessional terms,” Ms Kozack said.
IMF staff will also visit Egypt this autumn to review progress on Cairo's IMF programme. Ms Kozack did not provide an exact date for the visit.
Egypt's 46-month economic reform programme with the IMF was approved in December 2022. “With macroeconomic stabilisation under way for Egypt, now is the time for Egypt to carry out deeper reforms to really unlock the country's growth potential,” she said.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
