Dollar and naira bills at a currency exchange in Lagos, Nigeria. The greenback's strength against the Nigerian currency has pushed the price of garments and other foreign goods beyond the reach of many local consumers. Reuters
Dollar and naira bills at a currency exchange in Lagos, Nigeria. The greenback's strength against the Nigerian currency has pushed the price of garments and other foreign goods beyond the reach of many local consumers. Reuters
Dollar and naira bills at a currency exchange in Lagos, Nigeria. The greenback's strength against the Nigerian currency has pushed the price of garments and other foreign goods beyond the reach of many local consumers. Reuters
Dollar and naira bills at a currency exchange in Lagos, Nigeria. The greenback's strength against the Nigerian currency has pushed the price of garments and other foreign goods beyond the reach of man

Why the wish of emerging economies to end dollar's dominance is easier said than done


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Business has vanished at Kingsley Odafe’s clothing shop in Nigeria’s capital, forcing him to lay off three employees.

One culprit for his troubles stands out: the US dollar's strength against the Nigerian currency, the naira, has pushed the price of garments and other foreign goods beyond the reach of local consumers.

A bag of imported clothes costs three times what it did two years ago. The price these days is running around 350,000 naira, or $450.

“There are no sales any more because people have to eat first before thinking of buying clothes,” Mr Odafe said.

Across the developing world, many countries are exasperated by America's dominance of the global financial system, especially the power of the dollar.

They will air their grievances next week as the Brics bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa meet other emerging market countries in Johannesburg, South Africa.

But griping about King Dollar is easier than deposing the de facto world currency. The dollar is by far the most-used currency in global business and has shrugged off challenges to its pre-eminence many times.

Despite repeated talk of the Brics countries rolling out their own currency, no concrete proposals have emerged in the run-up to the summit starting on Tuesday. Emerging economies have, however, discussed expanding trade in their own currencies to reduce their reliance on the buck.

At a meeting of Brics foreign ministers in June, South Africa's Naledi Pandor said the bloc's New Development Bank will seek alternatives “to the current internationally traded currencies” – a euphemism for the dollar.

Ms Pandor was sitting alongside Russia's Sergey Lavrov and China's Ma Zhaoxu – representatives of two countries that are eager to weaken America's international financial clout.

The Brics grouping dates to 2009. Originally, it was just Bric, a term coined by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill to refer to the rising economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China.

South Africa joined in 2010, adding the “s”. More than 20 countries – including Saudi Arabia and Venezuela – have expressed interest in joining Brics.

In 2015, the Brics countries launched the New Development Bank, an alternative to the US and European-dominated International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

“Developing nations are itching to loosen the grip of western dominance and open the door to a new world order where the East commands equal, if not greater, influence,” said Martin Ssempa, a Ugandan political campaigner.

Critics in the developing world are especially uneasy about America's willingness to use the dollar's influence to impose financial sanctions against adversaries, as it did to Russia after the invasion of Ukraine last year.

They also complain that fluctuations in the dollar can destabilise their economies. A rising dollar, for instance, can cause chaos abroad by drawing investment out of other countries. It also increases the cost of repaying loans denominated in dollars and buying imported products, which are often priced in dollars.

Kenyan President William Ruto has grumbled this year about Africa's dependence on the dollar and the economic fallout from its ups and downs, while the Kenyan shilling plunges in value.

He has urged African leaders to join a fledgling pan-African payments system that uses local currencies in a push to encourage more trade.

“How is US dollars part of the trade between Djibouti and Kenya? Why?” he asked at a meeting, to applause.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has supported a common currency for commerce within the South American bloc Mercosur and for trade among Brics nations.

“Why does Brazil need the dollar to trade with China or Argentina? We can trade in our currency,” he told reporters this month.

But if the dollar’s drawbacks are easily apparent, the alternatives to it are not.

“At the end of the day, if you want to keep your reserve safe, you’ve got to put it in the dollar,” said Daniel Bradlow, a senior research fellow at the University of Pretoria and a lawyer specialising in international finance.

“You’re going to need to borrow in dollars. Everybody can see all the problems with doing this, but if there was an alternative, people would use it.”

As it stands, 96 per cent of trade in the Americas from 1999 to 2019 was invoiced in dollars, 74 per cent of trade in Asia and 79 per cent everywhere else, outside of Europe, which has the euro, according to calculations by US Federal Reserve researchers.

Still, the dollar’s hold on global commerce has loosened somewhat in recent years as banks, businesses and investors have turned to the euro and China’s yuan.

But 24 years after the euro was introduced, the world's No 2 currency still does not rival the dollar for international gravitas. The dollar is used in three times as many foreign exchange transactions as the euro, Harvard University economist Jeffrey Frankel said in a study last month.

And the yuan is limited by Beijing's refusal to let the currency trade freely in world markets.

“None of the alternatives to the dollar managed to get to the dominance level,” said Mihaela Papa, senior fellow at Tufts University’s Fletcher School of global affairs. “So the idea that now, overnight, you will have a new Brics currency that would cause a major upheaval – it takes time, it takes trust … I see this path as very long.”

The dollar still has its supporters. In Argentina, Javier Milei, who emerged from primary voting Monday as the front-running presidential candidate in October's general election, is calling for the dollar to replace the country's embattled peso.

None of the alternatives to the dollar managed to get to the dominance level. So the idea that now, overnight, you will have a new Brics currency that would cause a major upheaval – it takes time, it takes trust ... I see this path as very long
Mihaela Papa,
senior fellow at Tufts University’s Fletcher School of global affairs

In Zimbabwe, Lovemore Mutenha's store collapsed when hyperinflation hit in 2008. He only managed to resuscitate the business when the country abandoned the local currency for a basket of currencies dominated by the dollar.

“The US dollar has given us our life back. We can't do without it,” Mr Mutenha, said in the working-class suburb of Warren Park near the capital, Harare.

“How can one budget with the Zimbabwe dollar that is always changing in value? It is not stable, and we have been burnt before.”

In 2019, the government reintroduced the Zimbabwean currency and banned foreign currencies in local transactions.

But the revamped Zimbabwe dollar foundered. US dollars kept trading in the black market, and the government lifted the ban. Now, 80 per cent of transactions in the country are in US dollars.

Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube often pleads with people to embrace the local currency.

But even government workers clamour to be paid in US dollars, arguing that almost all service providers accept only the greenback.

Prosper Chitambara, an economic analyst in Harare, said the US dollar “has always had a stabilising effect”. But Zimbabwe’s economy, which has little industry, low investment, few exports and high debts, cannot attract enough dollars to meet the needs of everyday commerce.

It has led to a niche business on the streets of the capital: vendors mend worn out or shredded $1 notes for a small fee.

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Stars:Robert Pattinson

Director:Matt Reeves

Rating: 5/5

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What is the Supreme Petroleum Council?

The Abu Dhabi Supreme Petroleum Council was established in 1988 and is the highest governing body in Abu Dhabi’s oil and gas industry. The council formulates, oversees and executes the emirate’s petroleum-related policies. It also approves the allocation of capital spending across state-owned Adnoc’s upstream, downstream and midstream operations and functions as the company’s board of directors. The SPC’s mandate is also required for auctioning oil and gas concessions in Abu Dhabi and for awarding blocks to international oil companies. The council is chaired by Sheikh Khalifa, the President and Ruler of Abu Dhabi while Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, is the vice chairman.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
The biog:

Languages: Arabic, Farsi, Hindi, basic Russian 

Favourite food: Pizza 

Best food on the road: rice

Favourite colour: silver 

Favourite bike: Gold Wing, Honda

Favourite biking destination: Canada 

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Director: James Cameron

Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana

Rating: 4.5/5

Updated: August 20, 2023, 3:00 AM