Individuals pursuing their own best interests sometimes set up the worst outcomes for a group – known as the prisoner’s dilemma. One manifestation of this problem in the GCC is the limited role for e-commerce, where buyers and sellers do not trust each other enough to conduct an online transaction. How can repetition help solve the prisoner’s dilemma?
In the prisoner’s dilemma, each person has the choice between behaving opportunistically (defection) and responsibly (cooperation). The best possible outcome is multilateral cooperation but it is difficult to realise because each person benefits unilaterally from defection.
In particular, defection benefits the defector at the expense of other players. This means that defection has two properties – it serves an individual’s immediate interests and it can serve as a way of punishing others.
Punishment is an asynchronous activity – it is a response to someone else’s actions, not something that you carry out simultaneously to your being mistreated. Since the prisoner’s dilemma is generally applied to simultaneous-move environments, if you find yourself playing a one-off prisoner’s dilemma (like the two prisoners in the original parable), then by the time you realise that you have been wronged and want to take retribution, the game is over and you have no recourse.
Repeating a prisoner’s dilemma is a game-changer because it offers players the chance to retaliate. More importantly, the threat of retaliation can sometimes be strong enough to motivate people to cooperate in the first place. When is this threat strong enough? A group of economists proposed a series of conditions, known as the Folk Theorem. There are two conditions necessary for the threat of retaliation to induce cooperative behaviour. First, the punishment has to be painful for its recipient. Second, the recipient has to care enough about the future, also known as exhibiting sufficient farsightedness, because all punishments are necessarily delayed. If, for example, one of the parties is leaving town the next day or is incredibly impulsive, then even the threat of a severe punishment is insufficient to scare them into virtuous behaviour, and defection will prevail.
In the context of online sales in the GCC and beyond, when you imagine retaliating against an unscrupulous seller, you probably think of delivering bad online ratings or a scathing review. These are slightly more complex versions of the punishment conceived in the Folk Theorem and we will discuss them more in the next article. In fact, the most elemental counter-attack you have at your disposal is withdrawing your future custom.
In many cases, this is enough to get people to play cooperatively. For example, most people play a repeated prisoner’s dilemma with their electricity provider: you can choose whether or not to pay and the provider can choose whether or not to provide you with electricity. Online bill payments are prevalent in the GCC and elsewhere.
Should the company decide to defect, by cutting your electricity off, you can respond by not paying future bills, hurting its bottom line. Conversely, should you decide not to pay your bill, the company can cut your electricity off. For the most part, people pay their bill and receive electricity, because of the repetition of the transaction and the farsightedness of both parties. Note that both parties have more complicated punishment methods available but, generally, the most basic form suffices.
In the case of Opec members trying to coordinate output cuts, quota violations act as defection and punishment.
The historic 96 per cent defection rate indicates that there might be impediments beyond the punishment being too weak, or oil ministers being too short-sighted. In fact, a key challenge is devising ways of objectively detecting defections, before the repetition-mediated punishment can be determined.
In the next two articles, we will consider alternative solutions to the prisoner’s dilemma conundrum faced by Opec and others.
Omar Al Ubaydli is the programme director for international and geopolitical studies at the Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies, and an affiliated associate professor of economics at George Mason University in the US. He welcomes economics questions from readers via email (omar@omar.ec) or tweet (@omareconomics).
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This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Karwaan
Producer: Ronnie Screwvala
Director: Akarsh Khurana
Starring: Irrfan Khan, Dulquer Salmaan, Mithila Palkar
Rating: 4/5
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMax%20Inferno%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsoles%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PC%2C%20Mac%2C%20Nintendo%20Switch%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
IF YOU GO
The flights
FlyDubai flies direct from Dubai to Skopje in five hours from Dh1,314 return including taxes. Hourly buses from Skopje to Ohrid take three hours.
The tours
English-speaking guided tours of Ohrid town and the surrounding area are organised by Cultura 365; these cost €90 (Dh386) for a one-day trip including driver and guide and €100 a day (Dh429) for two people.
The hotels
Villa St Sofija in the old town of Ohrid, twin room from $54 (Dh198) a night.
St Naum Monastery, on the lake 30km south of Ohrid town, has updated its pilgrims' quarters into a modern 3-star hotel, with rooms overlooking the monastery courtyard and lake. Double room from $60 (Dh 220) a night.
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%3Cp%3EThe%20UAE%20flag%20was%20first%20unveiled%20on%20December%202%2C%201971%2C%20the%20day%20the%20UAE%20was%20formed.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIt%20was%20designed%20by%20Abdullah%20Mohammed%20Al%20Maainah%2C%2019%2C%20an%20Emirati%20from%20Abu%20Dhabi.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EMr%20Al%20Maainah%20said%20in%20an%20interview%20with%20%3Cem%3EThe%20National%3C%2Fem%3E%20in%202011%20he%20chose%20the%20colours%20for%20local%20reasons.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20black%20represents%20the%20oil%20riches%20that%20transformed%20the%20UAE%2C%20green%20stands%20for%20fertility%20and%20the%20red%20and%20white%20colours%20were%20drawn%20from%20those%20found%20in%20existing%20emirate%20flags.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Law%2041.9.4%20of%20men%E2%80%99s%20T20I%20playing%20conditions
%3Cp%3EThe%20fielding%20side%20shall%20be%20ready%20to%20start%20each%20over%20within%2060%20seconds%20of%20the%20previous%20over%20being%20completed.%0D%3Cbr%3EAn%20electronic%20clock%20will%20be%20displayed%20at%20the%20ground%20that%20counts%20down%20seconds%20from%2060%20to%20zero.%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20clock%20is%20not%20required%20or%2C%20if%20already%20started%2C%20can%20be%20cancelled%20if%3A%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09A%20new%20batter%20comes%20to%20the%20wicket%20between%20overs.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09An%20official%20drinks%20interval%20has%20been%20called.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09The%20umpires%20have%20approved%20the%20on%20field%20treatment%20of%20an%20injury%20to%20a%20batter%20or%20fielder.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09The%20time%20lost%20is%20for%20any%20circumstances%20beyond%20the%20control%20of%20the%20fielding%20side.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09The%20third%20umpire%20starts%20the%20clock%20either%20when%20the%20ball%20has%20become%20dead%20at%20the%20end%20of%20the%20previous%20over%2C%20or%20a%20review%20has%20been%20completed.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09The%20team%20gets%20two%20warnings%20if%20they%20are%20not%20ready%20to%20start%20overs%20after%20the%20clock%20reaches%20zero.%0D%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%A2%09On%20the%20third%20and%20any%20subsequent%20occasion%20in%20an%20innings%2C%20the%20bowler%E2%80%99s%20end%20umpire%20awards%20five%20runs.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
