Tech billionaires Jack Ma and Elon Musk can’t agree whether artificial intelligence is going to take over the world. Only one of them is what we might think of as a tech guy, and it’s that difference that means the other is likely to be right.
Musk, a physicist by training, is a well-known AI radical who sees the technology as a threat to the human race because, in his view, it will inevitably outsmart us and start running the world without heeding our needs.
“The biggest mistake I see AI researchers making is assuming that they’re intelligent,” he said during a debate in Shanghai on Thursday. “They’re not, compared to AI.”
He likened humanity to a bootloader – a small piece of software needed to turn on a computer.
Ma, who has a degree in English, took the opposite view. Humans, he said, invented machines, and he has “never seen a machine invent a human being”.
This might look like the kind of argument Musk should win by default. Ma’s business is e-commerce, in which artificial intelligence only plays an auxiliary role. The Alibaba founder has invested in some down-to earth applications of AI, such as face recognition and traffic management.
Musk, by contrast, has been more ambitious. OpenAI, the research group he co-founded (and left earlier this year) has been experimenting with writing and storytelling. Last month, a venture of Musk’s, Neuralink, demonstrated that it had made some progress in creating brain-computer interfaces.
Musk, in other words, probably has a wider window on the future than Ma and a better technical understanding of the subject.
But the argument took an unexpected turn when the Chinese billionaire challenged the Tesla chief executive officer to identify a machine that is smarter than humans. Musk started rattling off the usual examples of computers beating human world champions at chess and Go. “Trying to play a computer at Go is like trying to fight Zeus; it’s not going to work,” he said.
“It’s stupid to compete with a computer at playing Go,” Ma retorted. “Only stupid people compete with a car. It will run faster. Go is designed for humans to play with each other, chess is designed for humans to play with each other. I will never play chess against a computer. Let them play each other.”
In "War Games”, the 1983 science-fiction movie, a supercomputer decides against launching a nuclear war after working out the only winning move is not to play. Ma appears to have reached the same conclusion about AI. As he explained during the debate: “A smart person knows what he wants and how to get it; a wise person knows what he doesn’t want.”
If Musk’s future is a dystopia, Ma’s is one in which humans only apply AI where needed, without engaging in unnecessary competition with it. In a way, it looks much like the world of chess, where, even though they can’t overcome a computer’s brute force, top players can still make hundreds of thousands of dollars a year competing against each other and millions play just for fun or as a way of developing their cognitive skills.
The difference between the future worlds of Musk and Ma boils down to access. AI entities can only take over the world if they get access to important processes – nuclear launch codes in “War Games”, for example, but also major investment decisions, trade flows, policymaking and regulation. In Ma’s world, computers won’t get that access because it’s up to humans to decide whether or not to grant it. AI will only be used in functions where it remains a tool.
If investments in AI focus on such purely practical applications, the clearly visible barriers to its acquisition of human-like intelligence (things like common sense or emotions) may not even be overcome on the research level. But Ma's world doesn't collapse if the robots surmount that barrier. His argument depends on humans’ strong motivation for keeping control – the same motivation that has, at least for now, stymied genetic engineering that could lead to the creation of artificial humans.
Keeping control may be a small consolation; Musk and Ma agree that AI will take over from humans in many areas. But the latter makes an important point: This isn’t our world because humans are the best at everything; it’s ours because we made it so.
Bloomberg
'Skin'
Dir: Guy Nattiv
Starring: Jamie Bell, Danielle McDonald, Bill Camp, Vera Farmiga
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EResults%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EHong%20Kong%2052-5%20UAE%3Cbr%3ESouth%20Korea%2055-5%20Malaysia%3Cbr%3EMalaysia%206-70%20Hong%20Kong%3Cbr%3EUAE%2036-32%20South%20Korea%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFixtures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EFriday%2C%20June%2021%2C%207.30pm%20kick-off%3A%20UAE%20v%20Malaysia%3Cbr%3EAt%20The%20Sevens%2C%20Dubai%20(admission%20is%20free).%3Cbr%3ESaturday%3A%20Hong%20Kong%20v%20South%20Korea%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
About Tenderd
Started: May 2018
Founder: Arjun Mohan
Based: Dubai
Size: 23 employees
Funding: Raised $5.8m in a seed fund round in December 2018. Backers include Y Combinator, Beco Capital, Venturesouq, Paul Graham, Peter Thiel, Paul Buchheit, Justin Mateen, Matt Mickiewicz, SOMA, Dynamo and Global Founders Capital
T20 World Cup Qualifier
October 18 – November 2
Opening fixtures
Friday, October 18
ICC Academy: 10am, Scotland v Singapore, 2.10pm, Netherlands v Kenya
Zayed Cricket Stadium: 2.10pm, Hong Kong v Ireland, 7.30pm, Oman v UAE
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Rameez Shahzad, Darius D’Silva, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zawar Farid, Ghulam Shabber, Junaid Siddique, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Waheed Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Zahoor Khan
Players out: Mohammed Naveed, Shaiman Anwar, Qadeer Ahmed
Players in: Junaid Siddique, Darius D’Silva, Waheed Ahmed
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Results
6.30pm: The Madjani Stakes (PA) Group 3 Dh175,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Aatebat Al Khalediah, Fernando Jara (jockey), Ali Rashid Al Raihe (trainer).
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Down On Da Bayou, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Dubai Avenue, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: My Catch, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Dubai Creek Mile (TB) Listed Dh265,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Secret Ambition, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Golden Goal, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
The five pillars of Islam
Day 2, Dubai Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Pakistan’s effort in the field had hints of shambles about it. The wheels were officially off when Wahab Riaz lost his run up and aborted the delivery four times in a row. He re-measured his run, jogged in for two practice goes. Then, when he was finally ready to go, he bailed out again. It was a total cringefest.
Stat of the day – 139.5 Yasir Shah has bowled 139.5 overs in three innings so far in this Test series. Judged by his returns, the workload has not withered him. He has 14 wickets so far, and became history’s first spinner to take five-wickets in an innings in five consecutive Tests. Not bad for someone whose fitness was in question before the series.
The verdict Stranger things have happened, but it is going to take something extraordinary for Pakistan to keep their undefeated record in Test series in the UAE in tact from this position. At least Shan Masood and Sami Aslam have made a positive start to the salvage effort.
New process leads to panic among jobseekers
As a UAE-based travel agent who processes tourist visas from the Philippines, Jennifer Pacia Gado is fielding a lot of calls from concerned travellers just now. And they are all asking the same question.
“My clients are mostly Filipinos, and they [all want to know] about good conduct certificates,” says the 34-year-old Filipina, who has lived in the UAE for five years.
Ms Gado contacted the Philippines Embassy to get more information on the certificate so she can share it with her clients. She says many are worried about the process and associated costs – which could be as high as Dh500 to obtain and attest a good conduct certificate from the Philippines for jobseekers already living in the UAE.
“They are worried about this because when they arrive here without the NBI [National Bureau of Investigation] clearance, it is a hassle because it takes time,” she says.
“They need to go first to the embassy to apply for the application of the NBI clearance. After that they have go to the police station [in the UAE] for the fingerprints. And then they will apply for the special power of attorney so that someone can finish the process in the Philippines. So it is a long process and more expensive if you are doing it from here.”
