Why drones pose a new threat to critical energy infrastructure

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From the chariot to the longbow, gunpowder, the tank, aeroplane and nuclear bombs, military leaders have long sought invincible weapons.

A new arm has entered service, giving dangerous confidence to weaker forces, and used effectively by Hamas in its attack on Israel.

As Israel shuts down a key offshore gasfield, a proliferation of drones and guided cruise missiles threatens not just soldiers, but critical infrastructure providing energy supplies for modern life.

The rise of relatively humble, cheap but numerous Turkish-built drones was prominent in Azerbaijan’s speedy defeat of Armenia in September-November 2020.

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But from an energy viewpoint, such weapons proved their capability earlier.

Experience from clashes such as the Iran-Iraq war, when both sides pounded away at oilfields, refineries and terminals, suggested that relatively small energy targets were hard to damage with inaccurate unguided missiles, or by planes that were vulnerable to interception.

But in September 2019, drones and cruise missiles, claimed by Houthi forces in Yemen, but more likely coming from Iran or Iran-linked groups in Iraq, hit the Abqaiq oil-processing facility and Khurais oilfield in Saudi Arabia, evading radar and the Patriot missile defence system.

The strikes temporarily knocked out 5.7 million barrels per day of oil production.

They appeared to be carefully calibrated to avoid major permanent damage, and Saudi Arabia was able to restore full capacity within a few weeks.

The main effect was political, demonstrating Iran’s ability to cause severe disruption to energy facilities key not only for Saudi Arabia, but for global oil consumers.

Drones have again been prominent in the Russia-Ukraine war, and not just on the front lines.

Russia has repeatedly struck at Ukrainian electricity supplies, especially last winter, aiming to disrupt the economy and break morale.

Ukraine has hit back through a series of shadowy attacks and somewhat unexplained explosions at Russian refineries, fuel depots and power plants.

These drones are not just aerial. Ukraine has innovated with marine drones, used in a series of attacks on Russia’s Black Sea fleet, the Kerch Bridge to Crimea and, in August, oil tankers.

That leads to perhaps the most mysterious recent energy sabotage.

Last September, three of the four lines of the Nord Stream I and II gas pipelines running from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea were destroyed by explosions.

Every plausible and implausible candidate has been blamed, including Russia, Ukraine or pro-Ukrainian groups, Nato, the US and the UK, but no proof has emerged.

On Tuesday, another Baltic gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia was broken by an apparent explosion, which Finland blames on “outside activity”.

Neither this nor the Nord Stream sabotage had to be carried out by drone – explosives laid by divers, mini-submarines or remotely operated vehicles from ships are most likely.

But it does show the vulnerability of the increasingly dense network of subsea pipelines, electricity and fibre-optic cables, growing as grids are integrated and offshore wind farms advance.

Following Hamas’s surprise attack, Israel shut down the important Tamar gasfield, whose production platform can be seen from Gaza on a clear day.

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This was apparently precautionary. The facilities for Israel’s two other producing fields, Leviathan and Karish, are located much further north, near the Lebanese offshore border.

Tamar was also briefly closed during the unrest of May 2021, albeit that was much less serious.

The Israel Defence Forces claimed to have thwarted a submarine drone attack from Gaza on Tamar, and that rockets had also been unsuccessfully fired at the platform.

In July 2022, the IDF said it had downed three reconnaissance drones launched by Hezbollah towards the Karish floating production vessel.

On Saturday, unofficial reports suggested the much-watched Qana well, being drilled by France’s TotalEnergies in Lebanon just over the boundary line, had failed to find gas.

That remains to be confirmed but, if true, it would dampen the incentive for Hezbollah to avoid targeting Israeli energy infrastructure for fear of retaliation.

Tamar provides nearly half of Israel’s gas production, and contributes to its exports to Jordan and Egypt.

In turn, Egypt had been in the process of resuming liquefied natural gas exports, helping to supply Europe.

For now, there is no reason to expect the closure to be prolonged, but if it were, it would tighten global gas supplies as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches.

European gas prices have risen by more than half since last Saturday, mostly because of the ominous Baltic pipeline rupture.

Drones have several advantages. They can be cheap and simple, well within the capability of weaker or poorer states as well as non-state groups.

Therefore they can be deniable, making it hard for the target to know who to retaliate against and how.

There are no easy answers to this new threat: the energy industry and defence forces need to learn quickly and be prepared for the unexpected and even the previously unthinkable

Robin Mills

They can overwhelm expensive conventional defences with a combination of numbers and undetectability. And they avoid exposing their users directly to harm.

Their main weakness is dependence on GPS systems and communications from human operators, which can be blocked by electronic measures.

That may disappear as fully autonomous drones, micro-drones and swarms are deployed. Drone attacks are also more effective when teamed with guided missiles and bombs, cyberwarfare, and traditional ground forces and misdirection.

New weapons win battles and even campaigns, but rarely provide a durable strategic advantage.

Opponents adopt them, or find ways to counter them. Nevertheless, they can lead countries or armed groups to start conflicts against apparently much stronger opponents. They also change the nature and targets of warfare.

Both the Middle East and Europe abound in exposed energy infrastructure. Defences can be beefed up, and critical systems can be hardened.

Ukraine’s experience in keeping much of its heat, water and electricity flowing even through prolonged attacks is testament to the value of robustness, duplication and improvisation.

Still, there are no easy answers to this new threat: the energy industry and defence forces need to learn quickly and be prepared for the unexpected, and even the previously unthinkable.

Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis

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Water waste

In the UAE’s arid climate, small shrubs, bushes and flower beds usually require about six litres of water per square metre, daily. That increases to 12 litres per square metre a day for small trees, and 300 litres for palm trees.

Horticulturists suggest the best time for watering is before 8am or after 6pm, when water won't be dried up by the sun.

A global report published by the Water Resources Institute in August, ranked the UAE 10th out of 164 nations where water supplies are most stretched.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”