Capital unveils plan to fire up non-oil exports


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Abu Dhabi has announced ambitious targets to raise the value of non-oil exports seven-fold by 2030, in an effort to shield its economy from volatility in oil prices. The capital wants to expand foreign direct investment to 23 per cent of its GDP by 2030, from 14 per cent now, to support the development of its export market, said Mohammed Omar Abdullah, the Undersecretary of the Department of Economic Development in Abu Dhabi.

The emirate is looking to nearly triple its GDP by 2030 to US$416 billion (Dh1.52 trillion), from about $142bn last year. Policymakers are turning to private financing to play an increasing role in funding the capital's diversification plans outlined in its 2030 economic vision. "Growth has to be driven by non-oil exports to reduce GDP volatility through diversification and this will see Abu Dhabi become an attractive investment destination," Mr Abdullah said yesterday at the MEED Abu Dhabi Conference.

For many years the emirate's expansion has been driven by the public sector, bolstered by revenue from its substantial oil reserves. Hydrocarbons account for 60 per cent of the capital's economy. Its income was cut at the end of last year when oil prices sharply declined from highs of $147 to $32. Although oil has now stabilised to about $78, concerns persist that any dip in the global economic recovery could choke demand.

Industry, finance, health care and tourism are among the sectors Abu Dhabi has focused on to diversify its economy and lift the value of its non-oil sector to 64 per cent by 2030. "Right now oil prices are swinging quite wildly and Abu Dhabi's GDP has been fluctuating as a result, so a diversification of its economy will reduce the chances of that," said Giyas Gokkent, the chief economist and head of research of the asset management group at the National Bank of Abu Dhabi.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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