The Bank of England looks set to keep interest rates on ice this week, capping a sharp swing in the outlook for the British central bank, which might now struggle to convince investors that it will raise borrowing costs at all this year.
Unexpectedly weak economic data and cautious remarks from Governor Mark Carney have dashed what looked like near-certain expectations of a rate increase until a few weeks ago.
Since he joined the BoE in 2013, Mr Carney has signalled several times that rates were likely to rise, only for economic data to go the wrong way.
With the prospects for Britain's economy unclear and the terms of Britain's departure from the European Union far from settled, Mr Carney is likely to want to hedge his bets on Thursday.
The biggest challenge will be to keep the prospect of a further rate rise this year credible in the eyes of investors, who feel wrong-footed by a slowdown in the economy that may well prove temporary and by the BoE's shifting guidance.
Sterling fell to its lowest since January against the US dollar on Friday as markets priced diverging prospects for growth and interest rates on the two sides of the Atlantic.
"Resetting communication after sitting out a rate hike will be an uphill task for the Monetary Policy Committee," Barclays economists Fabrice Montagne and Sreekala Kochugovindan said in a note to clients.
"It will have to make a convincing case that softness in Q1 ... is transitory," they said. "Markets will likely be reluctant to adhere to the MPC's rhetoric given the abrupt change in course witnessed shortly ahead of the May meeting."
Heavy snow slowed the economies of much of Europe in March but growth was weakest in Britain, where Brexit-related pressures have squeezed consumer spending power and hurt the willingness of firms to sign off on major investments.
The BoE raised rates for the first time in more than a decade in November, and in February it said they might need to rise again more quickly than markets had expected, given the country's long-term productivity problems.
In March, two policymakers voted for an increase and until a few weeks ago, most investors judged that the BoE was ready to join the US Federal Reserve, which has been raising rates.
But late last month, data started to raise doubts. Inflation fell faster than the BoE had expected and the economy grew at its slowest annual rate in five years in early 2018.
The central bank could choose to ignore the recently weak growth and take a longer-term view, with unemployment at its lowest since 1975 and some measures of wage growth inching up.
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Read more:
Central banks nervous at prospect of a trade war
IMF says global growth to slow in medium term as it warns of trade war harm
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Economists polled by Reuters expect that only the two policymakers who backed a rate rise in March - Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty - will vote to tighten policy this month.
Financial markets are barely pricing in a 50 per cent chance of a rate rise by August and have slight doubts whether rates will increase at all this year.
The BoE may not be comfortable with this scaling-back of interest rate expectations, which has the potential to fuel inflation through a weaker pound and cheaper credit.
Economists think it will trim its comparatively high growth and inflation forecasts for this year, but still forecast inflation above its 2 per cent target over the medium term and economic growth of around 0.4 per cent a quarter.
"(This) would point to the gradual tightening of monetary policy being delayed rather than abandoned," economist Howard Archer of consultants EY ITEM Club said.
Investec economist Philip Shaw said the BoE would avoid pinning itself down.
"At this juncture, the MPC does not have to take a heroic view over whether the economy's current sluggishness is temporary or something more malign ... (and) Dr Carney will stress the uncertainties connected with recent soft data."
But others think Mr Carney may have missed the boat if he wants to raise rates again before he is due to leave the BoE in June 2019, saying growth will look increasingly shaky as Britain's March 2019 departure date from the EU approaches.
"Delaying the next hike will eventually lead to not being able to deliver it at all," Barclays said.
ABU DHABI T10: DAY TWO
Bangla Tigers v Deccan Gladiators (3.30pm)
Delhi Bulls v Karnataka Tuskers (5.45pm)
Northern Warriors v Qalandars (8.00pm)
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Western Region Asia Cup Qualifier
Results
UAE beat Saudi Arabia by 12 runs
Kuwait beat Iran by eight wickets
Oman beat Maldives by 10 wickets
Bahrain beat Qatar by six wickets
Semi-finals
UAE v Qatar
Bahrain v Kuwait
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
The biog
Favourite film: Motorcycle Dairies, Monsieur Hulot’s Holiday, Kagemusha
Favourite book: One Hundred Years of Solitude
Holiday destination: Sri Lanka
First car: VW Golf
Proudest achievement: Building Robotics Labs at Khalifa University and King’s College London, Daughters
Driverless cars or drones: Driverless Cars
Wenger's Arsenal reign in numbers
1,228 - games at the helm, ahead of Sunday's Premier League fixture against West Ham United.
704 - wins to date as Arsenal manager.
3 - Premier League title wins, the last during an unbeaten Invincibles campaign of 2003/04.
1,549 - goals scored in Premier League matches by Wenger's teams.
10 - major trophies won.
473 - Premier League victories.
7 - FA Cup triumphs, with three of those having come the last four seasons.
151 - Premier League losses.
21 - full seasons in charge.
49 - games unbeaten in the Premier League from May 2003 to October 2004.
The specs
Price, base / as tested Dh1,470,000 (est)
Engine 6.9-litre twin-turbo W12
Gearbox eight-speed automatic
Power 626bhp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 900Nm @ 1,350rpm
Fuel economy, combined 14.0L / 100km
Profile box
Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
How does ToTok work?
The calling app is available to download on Google Play and Apple App Store
To successfully install ToTok, users are asked to enter their phone number and then create a nickname.
The app then gives users the option add their existing phone contacts, allowing them to immediately contact people also using the application by video or voice call or via message.
Users can also invite other contacts to download ToTok to allow them to make contact through the app.
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Race card
6.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (Dirt) 1.600m
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 2,000m
7.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: The Garhoud Sprint Listed (TB) Dh 132,500 (D) 1,200m
8.50pm: The Entisar Listed (TB) Dh 132,500 (D) 2,000m
9.25pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 120,000 (D) 1,400m
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
The low down
Producers: Uniglobe Entertainment & Vision Films
Director: Namrata Singh Gujral
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Nargis Fakhri, Bo Derek, Candy Clark
Rating: 2/5
MATCH INFO
Everton v Tottenham, Sunday, 8.30pm (UAE)
Match is live on BeIN Sports
More on Palestine-Israeli relations
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