The Middle East's travel and tourism sector is projected to create 400,000 additional jobs in 2025 to reach a total of 7.7 million jobs this year, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC).
That is up 5.2 per cent from 7.3 million jobs in 2024 and 16.8 per cent from 2019, before the Covid pandemic, the WTTC said on Wednesday in its latest Economic Impact Research report in collaboration with Oxford Economics.
"The Middle East is going to be ... one of the most successful regions that we are seeing, it is galloping ahead," Julia Simpson, WTTC president and chief executive, said at a press conference on Wednesday.
The WTTC expects the travel and tourism sector to contribute $367 billion to the Middle East's economy this year, or 10.4 per cent of the region's gross domestic product. That contribution is up 7.4 per cent on 2024 and up 24.7 per cent from 2019.
Tourists are expected to increase their spend during visits to the region, which is home to attractions such as the Pyramids of Giza in Egypt, the monumental ruins of Petra in Jordan and the world's tallest building, the Burj Khalifa, in Dubai.
International visitor spending in the Middle East is projected to grow 12.6 per cent year on year to $194 billion in 2025, the WTTC data shows. Meanwhile, spending by domestic travellers in the region is forecast to increase by 7.1 per cent on an annual basis to $113 billion.
“People are continuing to prioritise travel. That’s a powerful vote of confidence in our sector and a sign of its enduring strength," Ms Simpson said.
The global travel and tourism body is predicting record growth for the industry this year.
The sector's contribution to the global economy in 2025 is $11.7 trillion, or 10.3 per cent of the world’s GDP, according to WTTC forecasts. Travellers are projected to spend more than ever on international trips this year, at $2.1 trillion, surpassing the previous high of $1.9 trillion, recorded in 2019. Jobs supported by the sector are also expected to grow by 14 million in 2025, to reach 371 million worldwide.
However, the WTTC's research was concluded before US President Donald Trump's announcement last Wednesday of tariffs on around 90 countries around the world, which threatens to raise the cost of goods, reduce access to flights and leave US travellers with less discretionary income.
Asked if the tariffs and ensuing trade wars would affect on travel and tourism, Ms Simpson said the levies are a "key question" that the WTTC is considering and has tried to factor into its white paper with Oxford Economics.
There are no plans to "radically change" the forecast for 2025 because the research reflects travel that had already been booked. However, the situation remains fluid, she said.
"If we start seeing some trade deals being completed between countries and the US, I think things will settle down," Ms Simpson said. "But obviously that is a big question mark."
In an escalation of the tit-for-tat tariff war on Wednesday, China said it will increase duties on US goods from 34 per cent to 84 per cent and the EU approved its first set of retaliatory measures against the US.
Where the travel sector may take a hit, according to WTTC’s research, is in the US and China – another prediction made before the world's two biggest economies became engaged in retaliatory tariffs.
“While the global picture in travel and tourism is strong, the recovery remains uneven. While some countries and regions are producing record-breaking numbers, other large economies are plateauing," Ms Simpson said.
Growth in major travel markets such as US, China and Germany has slowed, according to WTTC data. In the US, the world's biggest travel and tourism market, international visitor spending remained significantly below 2019 levels in 2024 and is not expected to fully recover this year, the WTTC said.
In China, while international spending was above pre-pandemic levels last year, growth is expected to slow sharply in 2025, it added.
However, the pace of that growth rate remains uncertain because, in a trade war, "all the cards get thrown up in the air and you don't quite know how they're going to land or where they're going to land," Ms Simpson said, when asked where the dispute will leave China as a major travel market.
"What I admire about China is their ability to take a long-term view of the world ... we are still predicting that the Chinese travel and tourism market will eventually overtake the US as the prize owners of being the biggest travel and tourism market," she said.
"There will be some winners and some losers at the end of these trade wars, and we will see where China lands, but it's always looking to support growth and looking to support travel and tourism."
A decade of growth ahead
The WTTC forecasts that by 2035, the travel and tourism industry will inject $16.5 trillion into the global economy, accounting for 11.5 per cent of global GDP. That’s a decade-long growth rate of 3.5 per cent annually, outpacing the wider economy’s 2.5 per cent expansion.
One in eight people will be employed in tourism and travel jobs, with more than 460 million jobs created by the industry globally. International spending is expected to reach $2.9 trillion while domestic spending is projected to reach $7.7 trillion.
In the Middle East, the travel and tourism industry will create 2.2 million new jobs by 2035, to reach 9.9 million jobs by the end of the decade, according to the WTTC. The industry will contribute $522 billion to the region's economy, accounting for 11.5 per cent of the Middle East's total GDP by 2035. That’s a decade-long growth rate of 3.6 per cent annually, outpacing the Middle East economy’s 2.6 per cent expansion.
