Syria will be an 'opportunity' for airlines once it stabilises, aviation agency says

Global airlines are 'monitoring very closely' the developments in Syria but 'still too early' to assess the situation, according to Iata chief Willie Walsh

SyrianAir maintenance employees check a grounded Airbus A320 of SyrianAir at Damascus Airport in Syria, after rebels took control of the complex. EPA

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Syria will represent an opportunity for international airlines when the country stabilises and when carriers undertake their risk assessments of airspace safety and security, the head of the International Air Transport Association said.

However, it is still “too early” to assess the situation and global airlines will continue to monitor developments in the country over the next few months, Willie Walsh, director general of Iata, said.

“Depending on what happens, obviously, but if the situation in Syria stabilises, then I think that would be seen by most people as being an opportunity for the industry,” Mr Walsh said.

“We will monitor the situation closely, but I think it's too early for us to call what will happen in Syria, we will need to monitor that probably over a period of months. But the general view is that it should be seen as a positive and an opportunity. But it clearly will depend on what actually happens in the country.”

Meanwhile, Anis Fallouh, director of Damascus International Airport, told AFP and Reuters that flights will resume in the “coming days” when Syria reopens its airspace and informs countries that the hub has restarted operations.

“We may start with domestic or test flights to ensure that everything in the airport is operational and avoid any mistakes. Then we can resume international flights.”

This comes after the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria which was overthrown by anti-government rebels. Damascus International Airport was closed when the rebel forces captured the Syrian capital. Airport security staff left their positions, grounding flights and stranding passengers. The coalition, led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, a former Al Qaeda affiliate, aims to restore security and flights out of the Syrian capital.

Even when Syria does open its airspace for international flights, global airlines will make their risk assessments on airport safety and security.

“The risk assessment that airlines do is very much targeted on their own operation because not every airline faces the same risk, and that's something that isn't always appreciated,” Mr Walsh said.

“Even if the airspace does open, it may be the case that there will be individual airlines who will consider continuing to avoid the airspace until they see further progress. But we would have to see what happened in Syria as an opportunity.”

The Israel-Gaza war and Israel's war in Lebanon have affected airlines in the Middle East, but this effect “seems to be localised” to carriers in and around the conflict zones, Mr Walsh said.

“It's a surprise that it's not impacted on every part of the region,” he said.

However, the Gulf airports of Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Doha have not recorded a significant impact on airlines' traffic as they benefit from strong premium leisure travel demand, which has increased average yield, Mr Walsh said.

The major Gulf hubs have also benefitted from a reduction in capacity between the US and China, where direct flights are at only about 30 per cent of their 2019 levels.

“We can see a big increase in traffic flowing from the US, over the Middle East into Asia and vice versa,” Mr Walsh said. “They have also benefitted from strong cargo figures.”

The strongest rise in air cargo traffic has been observed among airlines registered in the Middle East and Asia Pacific, Iata said in its latest report this week. This has been driven by growth in e-commerce and disruptions in ocean shipping, while some of these airlines also benefit from unrestricted access to Russian airspace, Iata said.

The outlook for the Middle East airlines continues to be “very positive” next year “but that does mask the fact that there will be certain parts of the region that will continue to be very heavily impacted by what's happening in Gaza and Lebanon. And let's see what happens in Syria as well,” Mr Walsh said. He added that Iata has not seen any “noticeable impact” from the short rebel offensive.

Middle East airlines will end this year with an estimated $5.3 billion in net profit, up from a June forecast of $3.8 billion for this year and an increase from $3.1 billion in net profit last year, according to the latest forecast by Iata.

Airlines in the Middle East are forecast to earn $5.9 billion in net profit next year, up from $5.3 billion this year, Iata said. Profit per passenger will rise to $23.9 next year, more than triple the global average of $7 forecast in 2025.

“Everybody would like to see peace in the region and peace that can be sustained on a long-term basis,” Mr Walsh said. “The images that we've all seen are frightening and appalling and I don't think it's in anybody's interest that this continues. So we will monitor the situation closely.”