A potential major escalation in the conflict in the Middle East could force airlines to change flight paths and navigate airspace closures, according to Dubai Airports chief.
“Dubai has been very resilient … if things do escalate, then it will have an impact on our business: Flight routes may change, you may have to avoid certain areas, but we're so well used to doing that,” Paul Griffiths told The National on Wednesday.
The region has had considerable experience in dealing with geopolitical risks, he added.
“We've had so many decades where there's always been some conflict in the region, which has had some impact on traffic, but the aviation industry has proven incredibly resilient and we don't tend to see huge impacts when there is [an issue],” Mr Griffiths said.
His remarks came as the airports operator on Wednesday said that Dubai International Airport (DXB) is on track to handle a record 91.8 million passengers this year, higher than its forecast in May of 91 million passengers, despite fears of the Israel-Gaza war widening to include Lebanon and Iran.
The world's busiest international airport recorded 21.8 million passengers in the second quarter of 2024, up 7.5 per cent compared with the same period last year, amid a strong post-coronavirus rebound in air traffic from China.
In the first six months of this year, the airport handled a record 44.9 million passengers, up 8 per cent annually, operator Dubai Airports said.
Dubai Airports
“It's impossible to predict what will happen – we would obviously have to assess each situation and take whatever steps are necessary – but I'm optimistic that, unless we have a significant escalation, we will not see an impact on traffic numbers,” Dubai Airports chief executive Paul Griffiths told The National on Wednesday.
“There's always risks but I'm pretty confident that if we take the indications of what we see up to now, and we can suggest that things continue as they are, then we will end up with a record year.”
The airport operator previously expected to handle 91 million passengers this year, surpassing its previous annual traffic record of 89.1 million in 2018, as the city attracts more visitors and the hub’s main airlines Emirates and flydubai continue to expand their route networks.
DXB surpassed its pre-pandemic annual passenger traffic in 2023, handling about 87 million passengers – a growth of 31.7 per cent annually – on rising travel demand.
Dubai hosted 9.31 million overnight international visitors from January to June this year, up by about 9 per cent annually, helped by the emirate's push to strengthen and expand its tourism sector, according to July data from the Department of Economy and Tourism.
The number of visitors from north-east and south-east Asia grew to a market share of 10 per cent at the end of June, from 8 per cent at the beginning of the year, driven by a strong recovery from China, data showed.
The UAE's tourism sector is projected to make up 12 per cent of the country's gross domestic product this year, up from 11.7 per cent in 2023, the Emirates News Agency reported in May.
The Arab world’s second-largest economy expanded by 3.6 per cent last year, according to the UAE Central Bank.
Hitting goal of 100m passenger-mark
Dubai Airports is confident that the hub will reach – and potentially exceed – its goal of 100 million annual passengers by 2027 when supply chain bottlenecks in the aviation industry are expected to be resolved, said Mr Griffiths.
DXB is projected to handle 93.8 million travellers in 2025 and 97.1 million in 2026, he said.
Dubai is progressing with a $35 billion plan to expand its second hub, Al Maktoum International Airport or DWC as it is known, to accommodate the anticipated growth in passenger volumes. The design plans for the airport are still under review to ensure that it provides an even better passenger experience and has the right level of capacity, minimising huge walking distances and reducing the complexity of getting around the airport, Mr Griffiths said.
Passenger growth could be higher but has been slowed down by continuing delays in aircraft deliveries from Boeing and Airbus.
“Boeing and Airbus are struggling with their supply chains to deliver planes … during the pandemic, a lot of airlines cut back capacity when they retired a lot of aircraft, and new planes haven't been delivered,” he said.
“But by 2027, we believe that supply chain issue will be resolved and traffic numbers will be up there. That's why we are fairly confident that we'll get very close to 100 million, if not above 100 million, in 2027.”
Flydubai, the sister airline of Emirates, said last month that its growth plans had been “stunted” after it received an update from the US plane maker that it would not get any further planes this year, leaving it with a shortage in capacity during a period of strong air travel demand.
Boeing has been delaying jet deliveries as it struggles with production issues amid a safety and quality crisis that has increased regulatory scrutiny.
China traffic recovery
DXB said India remained its top destination country in the first half of 2024 with 6.1 million passengers, while traffic from China exceeded a million passengers, representing an annual growth of 80 per cent and a recovery of 90 per cent, compared with 2019 levels.
“The Chinese market was slow to recover due to its economy and health concerns after the Covid pandemic, but now we have five airlines operating to 14 destinations in China, so the market is rebounding quite strongly,” Mr Griffiths said.
The growth in passenger traffic from China is expected to continue through the year.
“The load factors have got room to be improved because the capacity has returned and we believe that once Emirates upgrades its flights from a Boeing 777 to [the bigger] Airbus A380, that would be a very good growth shot for the Chinese market,” he said.
India and China were followed by Saudi Arabia with 3.7 million passengers, the UK with 2.9 million and Pakistan with 2.3 million. Other significant markets include the US (1.7 million), Russia (1.3 million) and Germany (1.3 million).
The top three city destinations were London with 1.8 million passengers, Riyadh with 1.6 million and Mumbai with 1.2 million.
The total number of flight movements at DXB hit 216,000, a 7.2 per cent increase from the first six months of last year.
The average number of passengers for every aircraft movement was 213, and the load factor remained steady at 77 per cent compared with the first half of 2023.
Direct traffic accounted for 56 per cent of the airport's total while transfer traffic accounted for the remainder, Dubai Airports said.
