Australia poised to become 'Middle East of gas'


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SYDNEY // Australia is poised to become "the Middle East of gas" as Asia's rapidly growing economies queue up to buy its vast reserves in liquid form. The country's government last week approved the massive Gorgon liquefied natural gas (LNG) project off Western Australia, which the prime minister, Kevin Rudd, said would cost A$50 billion (Dh154.72bn) to build and would generate 6,000 jobs. The joint venture by Chevron, Shell and Exxon Mobil is already underpinned by supply contracts with China and India valued at more than US$60bn, and more customers are likely to sign up before it begins operating in 2014. Gorgon is just one of a clutch of LNG projects planned in the next decade that analysts say will pump tens of billions of dollars into the economy and see Australia challenge Qatar as the world's major gas exporter. Hailing Gorgon's $41bn supply contract with PetroChina this month, the largest trade deal in Australian history, the government announced that LNG was an important part of the country's future prosperity. "This unprecedented export deal confirms Australia's importance as a global energy superpower supplying vital clean energy resources and technologies to China and our other Asia-Pacific trading partners," said Martin Ferguson, the Australian resources minister. Asian demand for coal and iron ore have helped Australia's economy avoid recession during the global downturn but the State One Stockbroking analyst, Peter Kopetz, said LNG was the next boom commodity. The gas is liquefied for shipping abroad, where it is turned back into gas and distributed via pipeline. "The numbers are phenomenal. When you look at them it's mind-boggling," he said. "It's going to be LNG boom times." Australia exported 15.2 million tonnes of LNG worth $5.2bn in 2006, a figure the government estimates will quadruple to 60 million tonnes by 2015 if all currently planned projects proceed. "Potentially, there could be many more projects coming on board," Mr Kopetz said, pointing out that new discoveries were being made all the time. He said Australia had the potential to become "the Middle East of gas" in coming decades as the world's oil supplies dwindled. "Have a look at the Middle East, how they've benefited over the past 50-60 years from the oil boom," he said. Western Australia is the centre of the LNG boom with three huge gas fields off its northwest coast: the Carnarvon, Browse and Bonaparte basins. But Mr Kopetz also points out that Queensland state on the east coast has significant reserves of coal seam gas (CSG), naturally occurring methane trapped by water deep underground that can be converted to LNG. Shell plans a CSG plant in Queensland expected to produce up to 16 million tonnes of LNG a year, with other energy giants such as Britain's BG Group, ConocoPhillips, and Malaysia's Petronas also developing projects in the area. Despite the proliferation of LNG schemes, EL&C Baillieu head of research Ivor Ries said there was sufficient demand from Asia. He said existing LNG fields in Malaysia and Indonesia were coming to the end of their operational life, creating a market for Australian gas. Asian buyers were also keen to source gas from Australia rather than outside the region because it offered a secure supply, Ries said. "If you're in Asia, you don't have to route your ships through a war zone, which is the Middle East, and the distance is shorter," he said. However, not everyone is happy about Australia's rush to exploit its LNG reserves, with green groups raising concerns that environmental factors are being neglected. Peter Garrett, the environment minister, has conceded Gorgon is "greenhouse-gas intensive" and could raise national emissions by up to one percent if ambitious plans to pump carbon dioxide emissions into the seabed fail. But while Mr Garrett included 28 conditions in his Gorgon approval designed to protect the environment, Ries said the government was determined to develop LNG resources. He said the industry had the potential to overtake coal as the country's most valuable export, generating jobs, boosting the economy and filling government coffers with tens of billions of dollars in tax revenue. "The tax figures are quite exciting for government. If all these projects go ahead, Canberra and the states of Queensland and Western Australia would be awash with cash," he said. ? Agence France-Presse

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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