Tom Fletcher is principal of Hertford College, University of Oxford. He is a former UK ambassador. Photo: Hertford College
Tom Fletcher is principal of Hertford College, University of Oxford. He is a former UK ambassador. Photo: Hertford College
Tom Fletcher is principal of Hertford College, University of Oxford. He is a former UK ambassador. Photo: Hertford College
Tom Fletcher is principal of Hertford College, University of Oxford. He is a former UK ambassador. Photo: Hertford College

Tom Fletcher maintains realistic optimism in 'Ten Survival Skills for a World in Flux'


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When I started working in the BBC’s Washington news bureau I made two rules for the weekly staff meeting. First, no meeting longer than 20 minutes. (Life’s too short.) Second, all ideas are welcome. Criticism was welcome, too, but only if it pointed to a better idea.

In other newsrooms, businesses, government and other organisational meetings I had attended, I often thought discussions went in circles and nothing creative emerged. In the hope of managing things better I also read a few American “self help” management books. These were a disappointment.

The titles promised “10 Tips for Top Managers” right up to “10 Ways To Reinvent The Universe”, but my inner critic wondered why – beyond a snappy title – there were only 10 solutions to life’s problems. Surely there could be 11? Or 57? And why were the books always so cheerful?

I considered the possibility that I'm simply a miserable Brit who doesn't get America’s can-do culture, but I’m recounting these personal eccentricities to explain why I approached Tom Fletcher’s new book, Ten Survival Skills For A World In Flux, with a sense of both hope and fear.

In 'Ten Survival Skills for a World in Flux', author Tom Fletcher offers a structure for seeing, naming and dealing with problems now and those to come. Photo: William Collins
In 'Ten Survival Skills for a World in Flux', author Tom Fletcher offers a structure for seeing, naming and dealing with problems now and those to come. Photo: William Collins

The sceptical me was fearful about the inevitable 10 (not 11) survival skills. I also wondered if Fletcher – a fellow Brit and contributor at The National – would truly confront how confusing and unnerving much of modern life seems to be, or be cheerfully whistling past the graveyard. But the hopeful me knew something of Fletcher’s reputation as an agile problem solver. He has been UK ambassador to Lebanon and worked with three hard-headed British prime ministers, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and David Cameron.

By the time I finished the book hope triumphed over fear, partly because while Fletcher structures his analysis around 10 skills, his hints, tips, advice, comments and things-you-and-I-can-do-today to bring about change are so frequent that I lost count. Not 10 ideas, not even 57, but countless.

I made notes of quotes from what is a provocative and hugely thoughtful compendium of positive and realistic thinking to navigate an increasingly difficult world. It’s leavened by the wisdom of dozens of prominent thinkers and doers, many of whom Fletcher has met personally. The positive tone is admirable and ultimately infectious but only because Fletcher does not dodge the profound difficulties facing us now as individuals, nations, governments, businesses and as a planet.

Fletcher offers a structure for seeing, naming and ultimately dealing with the torrent of problems now and to come

To use Fletcher’s phrase, the world is in a state of flux, but it’s only a glimpse of what is to come. The human experience is changing faster than at any time in history. At the current rate of ageing, by 2100 10 per cent of global GDP will be paid in pensions to the elderly. Our information deluge drowns us in texts, emails, social and other media, not to mention innovations that haven’t hit us yet, some of which connect us and yet also divide us into tribes.

In the case of television alone, as Fletcher writes: “20 million watched Queen Elizabeth II coronation in 1953. Three-hundred million watched her sister’s wedding in 1960. One billion watched her daughter-in-law’s wedding in 1981. Two billion watched her daughter-in-law’s funeral in 1997. A reality TV presenter became US president in 2016.”

In the workplace almost half of today’s jobs are at high risk. Those which will disappear include taxi drivers, surveyors, fast food workers, translators and parking enforcement workers. Climate change means we will experience “the greatest wave of global migration the world has ever seen”.

We cannot escape from this unsettling world, and so many of us are daunted by it. Fletcher, meanwhile, offers a structure for seeing, naming and ultimately dealing with the torrent of problems now and to come. His account is enlivened by the thoughts of those he's worked with – including intellectuals and thinkers from around the globe, and some words with world leaders he happened to meet, including Barack Obama.

I particularly like how Fletcher suggests we should interrogate ourselves by asking “what guides what you do?” or what would a behind-the-scenes documentary of your life and work reveal? (Mine might resemble a horror film.)

I was also struck by Fletcher’s stories of how small changes can improve behaviour. One is of a university posting a series of interesting questions near their elevators. A sign told students the answers could be found in the stairwells. Curious students stopped using the elevators. They climbed the stairs to find answers.

Fletcher’s core message is, for me at least, realistically optimistic. For humanity to survive and thrive we must be both curious and co-operative. Yes, we can criticise each other, but only if we can offer something better. And urgent problems need long-term strategies but also urgent action, not endless committee meetings going round in circles.

Gavin Esler is a broadcaster, author and columnist for The National

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Kyrgyzstan v Qatar, 5.45pm
Iran v Uzbekistan, 8pm
N Korea v UAE, 10.15pm
All about the Sevens

Cape Town Sevens on Saturday and Sunday: Pools A – South Africa, Kenya, France, Russia; B – New Zealand, Australia, Spain, United States; C – England, Scotland, Argentina, Uganda; D – Fiji, Samoa, Canada, Wales

HSBC World Sevens Series standing after first leg in Dubai 1 South Africa; 2 New Zealand; 3 England; 4 Fiji; 5 Australia; 6 Samoa; 7 Kenya; 8 Scotland; 9 France; 10 Spain; 11 Argentina; 12 Canada; 13 Wales; 14 Uganda; 15 United States; 16 Russia

Desert Warrior

Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley

Director: Rupert Wyatt

Rating: 3/5

Result

Crystal Palace 0 Manchester City 2

Man City: Jesus (39), David Silva (41)

Updated: February 08, 2022, 12:45 PM