It’s not easy to make a synthetic voice sound human. We’ve become very used to the dulcet tones of voice assistants such as Apple’s Siri and Amazon’s Alexa, but whether it’s because of their mispronunciations, awkward pauses or relentless cheeriness, we instinctively know the difference between these computerised approximations of a human voice and a real one.
But what if we couldn’t tell the difference? Synthetic voices have, in the last couple of years, become increasingly sophisticated. Deep learning techniques have given algorithms a much better handle on the way human beings speak, and they can now instruct synthetic voices to express themselves with ever greater nuance.
Earlier this month, Reuters reported on how a start-up in Los Angeles had constructed a synthetic voice avatar from the voice of a local DJ, Andy Chanley. That “robot DJ” version of Andy can now deliver written lines in a way that’s hard to distinguish from the real thing. Chanley himself, having spent three decades broadcasting, is delighted that his voice will live on, and it’s clear that across the fields of entertainment, broadcasting and marketing, synthetic voices will become normal.
What perhaps couldn’t have been predicted, however, is our attachment to human voices, and how computerised voices can disconcert us when they masquerade as the real thing.
So suddenly we feel vulnerable to being manipulated, but we also feel vulnerable because it means we can’t trust our own judgement [when hearing these voices]. We need to be able to trust our ears
David Polgar,
technology ethicist
“Voice is so personal, so human,” says Jon Stine of the Open Voice Network, an organisation developing ethical standards for voice technology. “It's biometric. It identifies us uniquely.
"It can be used to infer our age, our health, educational level, ethnicity. When friends say hello, we know who they are! It's a very precious element in our life, and we must treat it with the respect it deserves.”
Earlier this year, that respect was deemed to have been sullied by filmmaker Morgan Neville, when he admitted to using AI to reconstruct the voice of the chef Anthony Bourdain for use in a documentary about his life and death. This fact wasn’t disclosed in the film, and those watching would never have known had it not been admitted later. But when it was, it provoked a fierce debate about ethics.
“In my opinion, people reacted to it in an adverse fashion because it almost feels offensive to that individual's lack of ability to control their persona,” says technology ethicist David Polgar. “Is this something he would have wanted? So suddenly we feel vulnerable to being manipulated, but we also feel vulnerable because it means we can’t trust our own judgement [when hearing these voices]. We need to be able to trust our ears.”
Nevertheless, the global text-to-speech market, worth around $2 billion last year, is projected to grow threefold by 2028. It’s largely driven by consumer demand for content, and the difficulty of meeting demand because of the limits of traditional ways of working.
Voices synthesised from celebrities could be used globally, in any context, without the celebrity having to personally record those messages. Dubbing could easily be fixed in movies. Actors and voiceover artists could have their voices localised with different accents, even different languages. The worlds of advertising, education, virtual reality and even health could see significant benefits.
And yet the technology has a way to go. There are still inherent difficulties in creating a synthetic voice that doesn’t prompt the “uncanny valley” effect, where the listener has the sense that something isn’t quite right. That’s because the written word and the spoken word are very different things.
“When you use text-to-speech, AI needs to guess how to say it,” says Alex Serdiuk, chief executive of Respeecher, a synthetic voice company in Ukraine. “And this AI is extremely limited to what emotions it can guess. Also, speech doesn’t just consist of words. Whispering, or singing, sighing or screaming – these things cannot be converted using text-to-speech in any way, and they’re very important parts of our speech.”
Respeecher’s elegant solution to the problem is using what it calls “speech-to-speech” technology, where one person’s voice, complete with all its nuances, is transformed into that of another. The technology was recently used in The Mandalorian, a Star Wars spin-off series, to provide a voice for the young Luke Skywalker. No one knew until they were told later.
As with any form of AI, these innovations can be put to nefarious uses. “It often takes the general public a longer while to fully recognise a problem when it's already been incorporated into society – and that's a problem,” says Polgar.
Artificial voices have already been used to perpetrate telephone scams, where people are persuaded to part with money in the belief that they’re speaking to someone they trust. As the quality of these voices improves, our susceptibility to these scams will increase.
Voice actors and radio broadcasters have become concerned for their livelihoods, and as Polgar notes, such voices can make the public feel vulnerable. Organisations such as Open Voice Network are busy constructing ethical frameworks for the technology, but what of those who simply don’t adhere to them?
“In most countries, it's just not legal to use someone's intellectual property – ie their likeness, their voice – to produce something without their consent,” says Serdiuk. “But the first and most important goal is to educate societies that these technologies exist, that they will fall into the wrong hands, and will be misused. So we should start treating this information differently.”
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Maratha Arabians 138-2
C Lynn 91*, A Lyth 20, B Laughlin 1-15
Team Abu Dhabi 114-3
L Wright 40*, L Malinga 0-13, M McClenaghan 1-17
Maratha Arabians won by 24 runs
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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