Britain is on course to enter a technical recession in the second half of 2022, with rising prices expected to affect living standards, an economic think tank said on Wednesday.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) forecast the UK's gross domestic product will fall by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter and 0.4 per cent in the last three months of the year.
That would mark two consecutive quarters of contraction, a commonly used definition of recession.
“Times are difficult for the UK economy,” said Niesr's deputy director for macroeconomics, Stephen Millard, a former Bank of England economist.
NIESR said the downturn would not count as a recession on its preferred definition — similar to that used by the US National Bureau of Economic Research — which requires a more sustained contraction.
Last week, the Bank of England forecast Britain's economy would shrink by up to 1 per cent in the final quarter of this year and also contract over 2023 as a whole — but not that it would shrink for two consecutive quarters.
The think tank estimated that Russia's invasion of Ukraine will knock 1.1 per cent, or $1.5 trillion, off world economic output this year — roughly the equivalent of an economy the size of Australia's.
It also cut its UK growth forecast for 2022 to 3.5 per cent from 4.8 per cent and downgraded its 2023 forecast to 0.8 per cent from 1.3 per cent, though this is stronger than the UK central bank's outlook, which forecast a 0.25 per cent contraction in 2023.
Consumer price inflation was likely to peak at 8.3 per cent, lower than the bank's forecast of more than 10 per cent, as NIESR does not expect energy prices to rise as much as the bank does.
It also predicted a bigger dampener on inflation from falling output and rising unemployment.
But the government should raise its main welfare benefit for the unemployed and low-paid — Universal Credit — by £25 ($31) a week to help offset surging bills and give a £250 ($308) grant to the poorest 40 per cent of households, it said.
Finance minister Rishi Sunak scrapped a temporary £20 ($31) Covid-related increase to universal credit in October. Niesr's proposals would cost £4.2 billion ($5.2bn), compared with the £20bn ($25bn) of headroom Mr Sunak has relative to his self-imposed fiscal rules.
Mr Sunak said two weeks ago it would be “silly” to offer more support now and he wants to wait until later in the year when the economic outlook will be clearer.
But Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Parliament on Tuesday that the government would have more to say in the coming days on cost of living support.
NIESR estimated about 1.5 million British households — about 5 per cent of the total — would soon face bills for food and energy that exceed their disposable income after housing costs.
“The impact on those households could easily be reduced with no deterioration in the medium-term sustainability of our fiscal position,” NIESR director Jagjit Chadha said.
How to improve Arabic reading in early years
One 45-minute class per week in Standard Arabic is not sufficient
The goal should be for grade 1 and 2 students to become fluent readers
Subjects like technology, social studies, science can be taught in later grades
Grade 1 curricula should include oral instruction in Standard Arabic
First graders must regularly practice individual letters and combinations
Time should be slotted in class to read longer passages in early grades
Improve the appearance of textbooks
Revision of curriculum should be undertaken as per research findings
Conjugations of most common verb forms should be taught
Systematic learning of Standard Arabic grammar
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
The years Ramadan fell in May
T20 World Cup Qualifier
October 18 – November 2
Opening fixtures
Friday, October 18
ICC Academy: 10am, Scotland v Singapore, 2.10pm, Netherlands v Kenya
Zayed Cricket Stadium: 2.10pm, Hong Kong v Ireland, 7.30pm, Oman v UAE
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Rameez Shahzad, Darius D’Silva, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zawar Farid, Ghulam Shabber, Junaid Siddique, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Waheed Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Zahoor Khan
Players out: Mohammed Naveed, Shaiman Anwar, Qadeer Ahmed
Players in: Junaid Siddique, Darius D’Silva, Waheed Ahmed
21 Lessons for the 21st Century
Yuval Noah Harari, Jonathan Cape
Honeymoonish
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The bio
Studied up to grade 12 in Vatanappally, a village in India’s southern Thrissur district
Was a middle distance state athletics champion in school
Enjoys driving to Fujairah and Ras Al Khaimah with family
His dream is to continue working as a social worker and help people
Has seven diaries in which he has jotted down notes about his work and money he earned
Keeps the diaries in his car to remember his journey in the Emirates
Also on December 7 to 9, the third edition of the Gulf Car Festival (www.gulfcarfestival.com) will take over Dubai Festival City Mall, a new venue for the event. Last year's festival brought together about 900 cars worth more than Dh300 million from across the Emirates and wider Gulf region – and that first figure is set to swell by several hundred this time around, with between 1,000 and 1,200 cars expected. The first day is themed around American muscle; the second centres on supercars, exotics, European cars and classics; and the final day will major in JDM (Japanese domestic market) cars, tuned vehicles and trucks. Individuals and car clubs can register their vehicles, although the festival isn’t all static displays, with stunt drifting, a rev battle, car pulls and a burnout competition.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Mamo Year it started: 2019 Founders: Imad Gharazeddine, Asim Janjua Based: Dubai, UAE Number of employees: 28 Sector: Financial services Investment: $9.5m Funding stage: Pre-Series A Investors: Global Ventures, GFC, 4DX Ventures, AlRajhi Partners, Olive Tree Capital, and prominent Silicon Valley investors. The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
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Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Match info
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Liverpool v Porto, Tuesday, 11pm (UAE)
Matches can be watched on BeIN Sports
The specs
Engine: four-litre V6 and 3.5-litre V6 twin-turbo
Transmission: six-speed and 10-speed
Power: 271 and 409 horsepower
Torque: 385 and 650Nm
Price: from Dh229,900 to Dh355,000
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Section 375
Cast: Akshaye Khanna, Richa Chadha, Meera Chopra & Rahul Bhat
Director: Ajay Bahl
Producers: Kumar Mangat Pathak, Abhishek Pathak & SCIPL
Rating: 3.5/5
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Company profile
Company: Rent Your Wardrobe
Date started: May 2021
Founder: Mamta Arora
Based: Dubai
Sector: Clothes rental subscription
Stage: Bootstrapped, self-funded
Biog:
Age: 34
Favourite superhero: Batman
Favourite sport: anything extreme
Favourite person: Muhammad Ali
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