BEIRUT // After Tuesday’s suicide bombings in Aden, the Saudi Arabia-led coalition — including UAE forces — have found themselves another enemy in Yemen besides Houthi rebels: a group claiming to be a new ISIL chapter in Yemen.
While ISIL has claimed responsibility for attacks against Houthi and Shiite targets in the past, this was the first attack on coalition forces claimed by the group and was carried out under the banner of ISIL's province of Aden and Abyan. Little is known about the relatively new group, their strength or even what their relationship — if any — is to ISIL's leadership in Syria and Iraq.
“With Al Qaeda [in Yemen] we know who the leaders are, we know the areas they control, we know what tribes they are with, family names and all of that. We don’t have any of that with ISIL which makes it hard to confirm their presence as an organisation,” said Nadwa Al Dawsari, a conflict specialist who focuses on Yemen. But “are there sympathisers with ISIL? I think yes.”
Still, Ms Al Dawsari said, Yemen has the right conditions for a group like ISIL to rise.
“I don’t think ISIL is just a product of ideology. ISIL is a product of dysfunctional countries and Yemen is becoming one, it already is one,” she said.
Tuesday’s attack and a video released by the same group last week display the hallmarks of other ISIL chapters in the region and hint that ISIL may be gaining a foothold in Southern Yemen.
Tuesday’s attack showed a level of sophistication that is consistent with ISIL’s actions in other conflict zones. A statement attributed to ISIL’s province of Aden and Abyan said that the group utilised armoured vehicles rigged with explosives, a tactic that allows suicide bombers to penetrate thick layers of security more easily and increase the chances of success.
And in still photographs released by the group, one of the alleged suicide bombers is shown sitting in what appears to be a tan, armour-reinforced Humvee — a vehicle used by coalition forces in Yemen. The ability to obtain hard to get materiel and the potential utilisation of a vehicle that blends in with those used by the targeted force again points to a level of sophistication largely absent from rag tag groups.
The format of the group’s claim of responsibility for the attacks also was consistent with the style and composition of statements by other ISIL chapters.
There is also evidence that ISIL may have an established presence inside the Aden, though it remains difficult to tell how much power or influence they have in the city.
Last week, ISIL’s Aden and Abyan group released a video showing men it claimed to be its fighters engaging in gun battles with Houthi forces, driving along a seafront boulevard in the city and carrying out public executions. While ISIL flags were visibly absent from the neighbourhoods they appeared in — a sharp contrast to ISIL-controlled areas in Syria and Iraq — the video’s style and the way fighters were dressed was very similar to other propaganda released by ISIL.
It is unknown when the video was shot.
The lack of ISIL paraphernalia in the streets and the relatively small number of fighters shown could indicate that ISIL’s affiliate in Aden has limited reach and enters neighbourhoods for short periods as opposed to occupying them full time.
But while the Aden and Abyan group is claiming to be an ISIL-affiliate, Yemen remains a remote outpost for ISIL and are they rising up in a country which already has other strong militant organisations to compete with.
Syria and Iraq remains ISIL’s focus, where the group’s key leaders are and where foreign fighters are drawn to. While there are indications that ISIL has dispatched advisers to some chapters — such as the ISIL affiliate in Libya — the level of cooperation between ISIL’s heartland and Yemen remain unknown.
In Yemen, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has long been the most dominant extremist militant faction on the ground. With Al Qaeda and ISIL at odds — and openly in conflict in places like Syria — it could be difficult for a fledgling ISIL to gain a foothold in Yemen.
“Al Qaeda has already entrenched itself in local communities and with tribes. In certain areas you have some acceptance among communities. Also they’re much less brutal than ISIL,” said Ms Al Dawsari.
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
