With Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week indicating a possible ground operation into Syria, attention has turned to Russia and the US to restrain Ankara from such an escalation.
Mr Erdogan, speaking after he returned from the World Cup opening in Qatar on Sunday, made it clear that Turkey’s response to the November 13 bombing in Istanbul and rocket attacks on its territory, will not be limited to aerial bombardment, which the Turkish military carried out in Northern Syria at the weekend.
"This is not limited to just an air operation," he said, adding that he would be consulting with his military and national security advisers on further steps.
“If someone disturbs our country and lands, we will make them pay the price."
While this is not the first time this year Mr Erdogan has threatened a ground invasion into Syria, experts say a shift in circumstances and an election campaign in Turkey could tip the balance in favour of an incursion for the first time since 2019.
Aaron Stein, a Turkey policy expert and author, said it would be prudent to take the Turkish president at his word.
“I tend to just listen to Erdogan and not make this too complicated. So yes, a ground invasion is possible,” Mr Stein told The National.
Key to Turkey’s thinking would be Russia’s reaction, he said.
Moscow controls the airspace and has observers in that region of Syria, but has been preoccupied with its own invasion of Ukraine.
“The first evidence we have is that Turkish jets did not cross into Syria [over the weekend], which would suggest Russia has not signed off on any invasion,” said Mr Stein, author of The US War Against ISIS.
“Turkey can always choose to ignore Russia, but they have not done so thus far.”
Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International and a Syria scholar, saw some ambiguity in Mr Erdogan’s remarks.
“Erdogan has been talking about a ground operation to seize terrain in northern Syria since May," Mr Lund said.
"Over the summer, his plan seemed to get stuck in negotiations with Russia.
"Now when the air strikes came, that seemed almost de-escalatory in the sense that Ankara had not opted to exploit the Istanbul bombing to justify a full-scale offensive.
“But now with Erdogan signalling that ground troops might be used, all bets are off."
Increasing the volatility of the situation were rocket attacks against southern Turkey on Monday in response to the Turkish bombardment.
Mr Lund, author of two books on Syria, said Russia’s position may end up deciding the fate of such invasion.
He said the key questions were: “Will Moscow oppose an attack, or what would it demand in return for facilitating one? Will the Russians yield if Erdogan goes ahead anyway?”
The personal rapport between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Mr Erdogan will also play a role, Mr Lund said.
“They do not see eye to eye on lots of things, Syria among them, but they do have a solid, well-tested relationship and have successfully negotiated difficult deals before,” Mr Lund said.
As for a US role, Mr Stein and Mr Lund expressed opposing views on its influence and willingness to interfere.
“The US isn’t really engaged [in northern Syria] and won’t be," said Mr Stein. "Ankara can basically do what it wants. The US has moved on."
At the Manama Dialogue on Saturday, White House Co-ordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk repeated the US position "to make sure that nothing is done to further destabilise that very difficult situation in north-east Syria".
Mr McGurk said Washington wanted “the border with Turkey is secure".
But Mr Lund saw an essential behind-the-scenes role for the US administration of President Joe Biden, “both in and of itself and as a potential reinforcement of a Russian ‘nyet'" [no].
Last summer, Mr Lund said Washington and Moscow “flashed a red light and that ended up dissuading Erdogan” from a ground invasion.
But with US-Turkey relations strained over arms and trade deals with Moscow and Congressional sanctions against Ankara, Mr Lund said Mr Erdogan, who is facing elections in June, “would not mind brushing US objections aside, which could play well into his re-election campaign".
But the aerial attacks in Syria are already infuriating members of Congress.
Congressman Frank Pallone tweeted on Sunday that Ankara’s bombardment “is yet another reason why I am working to block the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey".
The US state Department repeated its position, urging Ankara to “halt offensive operations in north-east Syria”, a US official told The National.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits Saudi Arabia - in pictures
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Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
Expert advice
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The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Rating:****
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Director: Jon Watts
Stars: Tom Holland, Zendaya, Jacob Batalon
Rating:*****
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
%E2%80%98FSO%20Safer%E2%80%99%20-%20a%20ticking%20bomb
%3Cp%3EThe%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%20has%20been%20moored%20off%20the%20Yemeni%20coast%20of%20Ras%20Issa%20since%201988.%3Cbr%3EThe%20Houthis%20have%20been%20blockading%20UN%20efforts%20to%20inspect%20and%20maintain%20the%20vessel%20since%202015%2C%20when%20the%20war%20between%20the%20group%20and%20the%20Yemen%20government%2C%20backed%20by%20the%20Saudi-led%20coalition%20began.%3Cbr%3ESince%20then%2C%20a%20handful%20of%20people%20acting%20as%20a%20%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.ae%2Furl%3Fsa%3Dt%26rct%3Dj%26q%3D%26esrc%3Ds%26source%3Dweb%26cd%3D%26ved%3D2ahUKEwiw2OfUuKr4AhVBuKQKHTTzB7cQFnoECB4QAQ%26url%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.thenationalnews.com%252Fworld%252Fmena%252Fyemen-s-floating-bomb-tanker-millions-kept-safe-by-skeleton-crew-1.1104713%26usg%3DAOvVaw0t9FPiRsx7zK7aEYgc65Ad%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3Eskeleton%20crew%3C%2Fa%3E%2C%20have%20performed%20rudimentary%20maintenance%20work%20to%20keep%20the%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%20intact.%3Cbr%3EThe%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%20is%20connected%20to%20a%20pipeline%20from%20the%20oil-rich%20city%20of%20Marib%2C%20and%20was%20once%20a%20hub%20for%20the%20storage%20and%20export%20of%20crude%20oil.%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20%3Cem%3ESafer%3C%2Fem%3E%E2%80%99s%20environmental%20and%20humanitarian%20impact%20may%20extend%20well%20beyond%20Yemen%2C%20experts%20believe%2C%20into%20the%20surrounding%20waters%20of%20Saudi%20Arabia%2C%20Djibouti%20and%20Eritrea%2C%20impacting%20marine-life%20and%20vital%20infrastructure%20like%20desalination%20plans%20and%20fishing%20ports.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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