US primary elections: which states to watch as Biden seeks boost amid Trump's trouble

Today's US primaries come just hours after former US President Donald Trump reported that the FBI raided his Florida home, which has some Republican strategists scrambling — especially those with a Trump endorsement. Tonight's election results could be a clear indication of the former president's hold.

Here's what to watch

The Republican tussle in the Wisconsin governor’s race on Tuesday features competing candidates endorsed by former president Donald Trump and his estranged vice president, Mike Pence.

Meanwhile, voters in Vermont are choosing a replacement for Patrick Leahy as the US Senate's longest-serving member retires. In Minnesota, US Representative Ilhan Omar faces a Democratic primary challenger who helped defeat a voter referendum to replace the Minneapolis Police Department with a new Department of Public Safety.

Wisconsin

Construction company co-owner Tim Michels has Mr Trump’s endorsement in the governor’s race and has been spending millions of his own money, touting both the former president’s backing and his years working to build his family’s business into Wisconsin’s largest construction company.

Establishment Republicans including Mr Pence and former governor Scott Walker have endorsed Rebecca Kleefisch, who along with Mr Walker survived a 2012 recall effort.

With Senate control at stake, Democrats also have tough choices. Democratic support coalesced around Lt Governor Mandela Barnes late in the race, when his three top rivals dropped out and threw their support to him. He would become the state’s first black senator if elected.

Minnesota

Democratic Governor Tim Walz faces a little-known opponent as he seeks a second term. His likely challenger is Republican Scott Jensen, a physician and former state legislator who has made vaccine scepticism a centrepiece of his campaign and faces token opposition.

Crime has emerged as the biggest issue in Ms Omar’s Democratic primary. She faces a challenge from former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels, who opposes the movement to defund the police and last year helped defeat efforts to replace the city’s police department. Ms Omar, who supported the referendum, has a substantial money advantage and is expected to benefit from a strong grass roots operation.

Connecticut

It has been roughly three decades since Connecticut had a Republican in the US Senate, but the party isn’t giving up.

In the Republican primary to take on Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal, the party has endorsed former state House Minority Leader Themis Klarides. She is a social moderate who supports abortion rights and certain gun control measures and says she did not vote for Mr Trump in 2020.

Vermont

Peter Welch, Democratic US Representative, quickly launched his Senate bid after Mr Leahy revealed he was stepping down. Mr Leahy, who is president pro tempore of the Senate, has been admitted to hospital a couple of times over the last two years.

Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.

8. Pillar 2 implementation

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer