Top US intelligence officials were questioned on Tuesday about why they misjudged the durability of governments in both Afghanistan and Ukraine, and whether they need to reform how intelligence agencies assess a foreign military’s will to fight.
US intelligence had said the Washington-backed Kabul government would hold out for months against the Taliban and thought Russian forces would overrun Ukraine in a few weeks. Both assessments were wrong.
The US and western allies are now rushing to aid Ukraine’s resistance against Russia in what has turned into a grinding, violent stalemate.
“What we missed was the will to fight of the Ukrainians … and we also missed that in Afghanistan,” said Angus King, a senator from Maine, at a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
He added: “I realise will to fight is a lot harder to assess than number of tanks or volume of ammunition or something. But I hope the intelligence community is doing some soul-searching about how to better get a handle on that question.”
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Family members mourn at the graveside of soldier Yuri Varyanytsia during the burial of three soldiers in the Field of Mars at Lychakiv cemetery in Lviv, Ukraine. Getty Images -
A pedestrian takes a picture as she walks past the wreckage of a Russian armoured vehicle outside the National Museum of Military History of Ukraine in Kyiv. AFP -
A man rides his bicycle over a heavily damaged bridge near Pechenegi village in the Kharkiv region, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. AFP -
Pro-Russian troops fire from a tank near the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol. Reuters -
Workers sew uniforms and material for flack jackets at a military clothing factory in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine. Getty Images -
A dog provides company at a flat damaged by a missile attack in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine. AFP -
Patron, a dog trained by Ukrainian forces to sniff out explosives, near Kyiv. EPA -
Lone skater Roman Kovalenko, 18, amid the damage at Peace Square in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine. All of his friends have fled. AFP -
A Ukrainian sapper carries unexploded materiel during demining works at an airport in the town of Hostomel, north-west of Kyiv. AFP -
Shelling of the Azovstal steel plant complex in Mariupol. Reuters -
Violinist Irene Duval rehearses before a fundraiser to support Ukrainians arriving in the UK, at the Ukrainian Catholic Cathedral in London. PA -
A serviceman stands guard at the destroyed Ukrainian Antonov An-225 'Mriya' cargo aircraft in Hostomel. AFP -
Galina Malets falls to her knees before the funeral service for her brother, fallen soldier Igor Malets, 59, in Lviv. Getty -
Explosions at the Azovstal steel plant in besieged Mariupol, where Ukrainian forces continue to hold out against Russian invaders. AFP -
A Ukrainian woman collects her belongings after her apartment was damaged by a missile explosion in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine. AFP -
An apartment block damaged by a missile explosion in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine. AFP -
Devastation around an apartment block hit by a missile in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine. AFP -
Ukrainian men at the site of a missile explosion in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine. AFP -
An elderly refugee from Avdiivka, eastern Ukraine, at a lunch provided by church group Awakening in Pokrovsk. AFP -
Natalia Rudneva, 59, was injured in overnight shelling in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, that put her son in hospital. AP -
Shocked occupants of an apartment building in Kramatorsk, Donbas, that was destroyed by overnight shelling . AP -
A man outside his house in Mariupol, in territory under the government of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic, eastern Ukraine. The sign reads 'Bomb shelter, children'. AP -
A woman passes Donetsk People's Republic militia tanks in Mariupol, eastern Ukraine. AP -
A refugee camp outside Mariupol, in territory controlled by the government of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic. AP -
The damaged St Godmothers Cover Church next to a bullet-riddled Ukrainian flag in Malyn, Ukraine. Getty Images -
St Godmothers Cover Church, in Malyn, Ukraine. Getty Images -
The ruins of an apartment building in Borodianka, Ukraine. Getty Images -
Firefighters from the self-declared Donetsk People Republic Emergency Situations Ministry battle a blaze at an oil depot after missiles struck the facility in an area controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces in Makiivka, 15 kilometres east of Donetsk, eastern Ukraine. AP -
People wait for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to begin a speech televised on a screen in City Hall Square in Copenhagen, Denmark. Reuters -
An aerial view of the destroyed Hotel Ukraine in the northern city of Chernigiv. AFP -
A woman who recently lost her husband arrives with her dog at a charity centre in Pokrovsk, eastern Ukraine. AFP -
A family of Ukrainian evacuees near a donation collection point in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. Reuters -
The ruins of a residential building in the northern Ukrainian city of Chernigiv, which was heavily damaged during the Russian invasion. AFP -
People pay their respects during the funeral for Ukrainian serviceman Ruslan Borovyk in St Michael's Cathedral in Kyiv. AP -
Crew chiefs and engineers with the 158th Fighter Wing meet before launching F-35A Lightning II fifth-generation aircraft at the Vermont Air National Guard Base, South Burlington, US. More than 200 Vermont air guard personnel, plus equipment and eight F-35s, are now in Europe. AP -
Svitlana, 36, holds her sons Artem, 7, and Kyrylo, 5, while sheltering in a kindergarten in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine. Getty Images -
Men report to enlist in Ukrainian Territorial Defence Force units in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine. Getty Images -
A burning oil storage unit on the outskirts of Donetsk, Ukraine. Reuters -
Russian MiG-29SMT jet fighters, forming the symbol Z in support of Russian military action in Ukraine, fly over Red Square in Moscow during a rehearsal for the Second World War Victory Parade on May 9, 2022. AFP -
A warehouse after shelling in Severodonetsk, as fighting rages across Ukraine's east after a US warning that Moscow is preparing to formally annex eastern regions. AFP -
Katya, 11, waits for her mother's treatment to end at the Severodonetsk Hospital in Severodonetsk. AFP -
Antonina, 60, at a funeral home where she works and now lives with neighbours in Severodonetsk. AFP -
A Russian serviceman patrols a street near the sea port of Berdyansk, Ukraine. AFP -
A woman during the rally in front of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's office in Kyiv. AFP -
Svitlana Karpenko, 53, at what is left of her house in Sloboda, Chernihiv region, Ukraine. She said it was destroyed by shelling. Reuters -
The turret from a destroyed Russian tank stuck in the ground in Zalissia, Kyiv region, Ukraine. Reuters -
Lyubov Lenko, 61, in front of her house in Budy, Chernihiv region, Ukraine, that she says was destroyed by shelling. Reuters -
Nina Stefuryak, 2, playing in a park in front of a building destroyed by shelling in Borodianka, Kyiv region, Ukraine. Reuters -
Mealtime at a centre for displaced people in Zaporizhzhia. AP -
Volunteers assist a man after his arrival from Mariupol at a centre for displaced people in Zaporizhzhia. AP -
People disembark a van to be registered by police after arriving in Zaporizhzhia. Getty Images -
Firefighters damp down the ashes of a fire that destroyed a children's play area in Gorky Park in Kharkiv, Ukraine. EPA -
A woman touches a piano as she inspects the damage in a classroom after shelling at Kharkiv National Kotlyarevsky University of Arts. EPA -
US President Joe Biden and Lockheed Martin chief executive Jim Taiclet with Javelin anti-tank missile assembly workers during a tour of a Lockheed Martin weapons factory in Troy, Alabama, US. Reuters -
Residents collect humanitarian aid in Borodyanka, Ukraine. Getty Images
President Joe Biden’s administration had long voiced concerns that Russia would invade Ukraine — a public campaign that it says built support for crushing sanctions on the Russian economy and military support from Nato members.
Top US officials have gone to Kyiv to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and pledged more military and intelligence support.
Avril Haines, the US director of national intelligence, said that “will to fight” and “capacity to fight” in tandem were difficult to predict but that the National Intelligence Council, a group of advisers that reviews the agencies as a whole, is studying the issue.
“The two of them are issues that are, as you indicated, quite challenging to provide effective analysis on,” Ms Haines told Mr King. “And we’re looking at different methodologies for doing so.”
The US might have done more before the invasion to assist Mr Zelenskyy had Congress believed Kyiv had more of a chance, Mr King said.
And after predictions that the Taliban would be held back as long as a year after the American withdrawal, the coalition-backed government “lasted minus-two weeks”, Mr King noted, a reference to the Taliban overrunning Kabul before the withdrawal formally ended.
The US was forced to negotiate with the Taliban to fly out thousands of American citizens and Afghan allies fighting huge crowds to secure space on evacuation flights. An attack at the Kabul airport killed 13 US troops and at least 170 Afghan civilians.
Mr King raised his voice to cut off Lt Gen Scott Berrier, head of the Defence Intelligence Agency, after Lt Gen Berrier said he believed the intelligence agencies had done “a great job”.
“General, how can you possibly say that when we were told explicitly, Kyiv would fall in three days and Ukraine would fall in two weeks?” he said. “You’re telling me that was accurate intelligence?
US intelligence had believed before the war Russia’s forces were so much larger and more powerful than Ukraine’s that “it wasn’t going to go very well for a variety of factors”, Lt Gen Berrier said.
He said on Tuesday that “there was never an intelligence community assessment that said the Ukrainians lacked the will to fight”.
That appears to contradict his statement from Senate testimony in March, when he said he “questioned their will to fight. That was a bad assessment on my part because they have fought bravely and honourably and are doing the right thing”.
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Taliban soldiers stand guard as women carry placards during a rally in Kabul, Afghanistan. All photos: EPA -
Afghan women activists demand food, jobs and education for girls during a protest in Kabul. -
Afghan women demonstrate during a rally in Kabul, Afghanistan. -
The Taliban have banned women from work and girls from secondary schools. EPA -
Women carry placards during a rally in Kabul. -
Afghan women have intensified their anti-Taliban protests despite the group's harsh crackdown on demonstrations. -
In the last three months of their rule, the Taliban have suppressed several women's protests in Kabul and other Afghan provinces. -
The Taliban have used violence against protesters, including using pepper spray.
