The forecast estimates global average temperatures in 2023 will be about 1.2°C above what they were before humans started to drive climate change. Reuters
The forecast estimates global average temperatures in 2023 will be about 1.2°C above what they were before humans started to drive climate change. Reuters
The forecast estimates global average temperatures in 2023 will be about 1.2°C above what they were before humans started to drive climate change. Reuters
The forecast estimates global average temperatures in 2023 will be about 1.2°C above what they were before humans started to drive climate change. Reuters

2023 forecast to be one of Earth’s hottest years on record


Soraya Ebrahimi
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Next year is forecast to be one of the world's hottest years on record, the UK's Met Office has said.

It is set to be the 10th consecutive year in which global temperatures will be at least 1°C above pre-industrial levels

The forecast estimates global average temperatures in 2023 will be about 1.2°C above what they were before humans started to drive climate change.

The current record hot year in the records, which date back to 1850, is 2016, a year in which an El Nino climate pattern in the Pacific pushed up global temperatures on top of global warming trends.

Snow blankets the UK, with more wintry weather to come — in pictures

  • Snow has fallen across the UK. Trees and boats blanketed in Little Venice, London. AP
    Snow has fallen across the UK. Trees and boats blanketed in Little Venice, London. AP
  • Marine Park in South Shields, north-east England. PA
    Marine Park in South Shields, north-east England. PA
  • A car stranded on the hard shoulder of the M25 motorway near Epping. Bloomberg
    A car stranded on the hard shoulder of the M25 motorway near Epping. Bloomberg
  • A frozen lake in Richmond Park, south west London. AFP
    A frozen lake in Richmond Park, south west London. AFP
  • The Angel of the North in Gateshead. PA
    The Angel of the North in Gateshead. PA
  • Mjukuu the gorilla snacks on a snowman's broccoli hair at London Zoo. PA
    Mjukuu the gorilla snacks on a snowman's broccoli hair at London Zoo. PA
  • A car abandoned after crashing on a roundabout in Ashford, Kent. PA
    A car abandoned after crashing on a roundabout in Ashford, Kent. PA
  • Snow outside the Churchill Arms pub in west London. AP
    Snow outside the Churchill Arms pub in west London. AP
  • St Nicholas' Park in Warwick. AP
    St Nicholas' Park in Warwick. AP
  • A tractor clears snow from the runways at Manchester Airport. Reuters
    A tractor clears snow from the runways at Manchester Airport. Reuters
  • Hownsgill Viaduct in Durham. AP
    Hownsgill Viaduct in Durham. AP
  • The town of Consett in County Durham. AP
    The town of Consett in County Durham. AP
  • A frosty morning at Primrose Hill in north London. AFP
    A frosty morning at Primrose Hill in north London. AFP
  • More freezing weather at Primrose Hill. AFP
    More freezing weather at Primrose Hill. AFP
  • Camden, north London. AP
    Camden, north London. AP
  • Cold temperatures, freezing fog and wintry showers are expected throughout the week. AP
    Cold temperatures, freezing fog and wintry showers are expected throughout the week. AP
  • A park in south London. AP
    A park in south London. AP
  • The snow forced airports to close and left drivers struggling to get through. AP
    The snow forced airports to close and left drivers struggling to get through. AP

“Without a preceding El Nino to boost global temperature, 2023 may not be a record-breaking year, but with the background increase in global greenhouse gas emissions continuing apace, it is likely that next year will be another notable year in the series,” said Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office.

The agency's Nick Dunstone, who led the 2023 global temperature forecast, said: “The global temperature over the last three years has been influenced by the effect of a prolonged La Nina — where cooler-than-average sea-surface temperatures occur in the tropical Pacific.

“La Nina has a temporary cooling effect on global average temperature.

UK temperatures soar — in pictures

  • Women enjoy the afternoon sun in Trafalgar Square in London. Getty Images
    Women enjoy the afternoon sun in Trafalgar Square in London. Getty Images
  • People cool off beside the River Thames. AFP
    People cool off beside the River Thames. AFP
  • A cooling ice cream for a young beach-goer in Bridlington, Yorkshire. PA
    A cooling ice cream for a young beach-goer in Bridlington, Yorkshire. PA
  • A selfie in front of the London Eye, as people enjoy the sunny weather on Westminster Bridge in London. PA
    A selfie in front of the London Eye, as people enjoy the sunny weather on Westminster Bridge in London. PA
  • Bournemouth beach in Dorset. Temperatures of up to 34C - very high for the UK - are expected in London and potentially some parts of East Anglia. PA
    Bournemouth beach in Dorset. Temperatures of up to 34C - very high for the UK - are expected in London and potentially some parts of East Anglia. PA
  • Cycling in the sunshine on Boscombe beach in Dorset. PA
    Cycling in the sunshine on Boscombe beach in Dorset. PA
  • Crowds hit the beach in Bournemouth. PA
    Crowds hit the beach in Bournemouth. PA
  • Sweltering on the London Underground. High temperatures are becoming more common in the UK amid global warming. Bloomberg
    Sweltering on the London Underground. High temperatures are becoming more common in the UK amid global warming. Bloomberg
  • Bournemouth beach is packed with sun-seekers. PA
    Bournemouth beach is packed with sun-seekers. PA
  • Beach-goers shelter under a Union flag umbrella. PA
    Beach-goers shelter under a Union flag umbrella. PA
  • A cooling plunge into London Fields Lido in Hackney, east London. PA
    A cooling plunge into London Fields Lido in Hackney, east London. PA
  • A reminder to stay hydrated in South Kensington tube station, central London. PA
    A reminder to stay hydrated in South Kensington tube station, central London. PA
  • Fun in the sun on a pedal boat in Warwick. PA
    Fun in the sun on a pedal boat in Warwick. PA
  • Striking a sunny pose with a London phone box. A tourist enjoys the heat. PA
    Striking a sunny pose with a London phone box. A tourist enjoys the heat. PA
  • A sunshine stroll near the Houses of Parliament in London. PA
    A sunshine stroll near the Houses of Parliament in London. PA

“For next year, our climate model is indicating an end to the three consecutive years with La Nina state, with a return to relative warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific.

“This shift is likely to lead to global temperature in 2023 being warmer than 2022.”

Doug Smith, a leading Met Office expert in climate prediction, added: “The fact that global average temperatures are at or above 1°C for a decade masks the considerable temperature variation across the world.

“Some locations such as the Arctic have warmed by several degrees since pre-industrial times.”

Heavy rain causes flooding in parts of the UK — in pictures

  • A car negotiates a flooded section of road in London, as torrential rain and thunderstorms hit many parts of the UK. Getty Images
    A car negotiates a flooded section of road in London, as torrential rain and thunderstorms hit many parts of the UK. Getty Images
  • Pedestrians get soaked crossing London Bridge in the capital. Britain's Met Office issued multiple flood warnings. EPA
    Pedestrians get soaked crossing London Bridge in the capital. Britain's Met Office issued multiple flood warnings. EPA
  • Sheltering from the rain at the seafront in Seaford, East Sussex, on England's south coast. Britain had been suffering a heatwave, with drought declared for parts of the country. Getty
    Sheltering from the rain at the seafront in Seaford, East Sussex, on England's south coast. Britain had been suffering a heatwave, with drought declared for parts of the country. Getty
  • A pedestrian is caught in the open in London during the downpour. The Met Office issued yellow thunderstorm warning forecasts for parts of England and Wales. PA
    A pedestrian is caught in the open in London during the downpour. The Met Office issued yellow thunderstorm warning forecasts for parts of England and Wales. PA
  • A pedestrian tries to keep dry crossing the road in a very wet London. Getty
    A pedestrian tries to keep dry crossing the road in a very wet London. Getty
  • Pedestrians shelter from torrential rain at the entrance to Blackhorse Road London Underground station, in north-east London. Getty
    Pedestrians shelter from torrential rain at the entrance to Blackhorse Road London Underground station, in north-east London. Getty
  • A fire engine negotiates a flooded section of road in London. Getty
    A fire engine negotiates a flooded section of road in London. Getty
  • A car sends floodwater spraying in its wake in London. The rain eased later in the week. Getty
    A car sends floodwater spraying in its wake in London. The rain eased later in the week. Getty
  • The gym at the Houses of Parliament in central London is flooded after torrential rain hit the capital. PA
    The gym at the Houses of Parliament in central London is flooded after torrential rain hit the capital. PA
  • Pedestrians brave the downpour to cross Millennium Bridge in London, with St Paul's Cathedral almost obscured by the rain. PA
    Pedestrians brave the downpour to cross Millennium Bridge in London, with St Paul's Cathedral almost obscured by the rain. PA
  • Parts of Clapham Common, in south London, are flooded by the downpour, while areas of parched grass bear testimony to the recent drought. Reuters
    Parts of Clapham Common, in south London, are flooded by the downpour, while areas of parched grass bear testimony to the recent drought. Reuters
  • Pedestrians find a dry path in London. AP
    Pedestrians find a dry path in London. AP
  • Covers protect the wicket during the Royal London Cup match between Essex Eagles and Yorkshire Vikings at Cloudfm County Ground in Chelmsford, south-east England. Getty
    Covers protect the wicket during the Royal London Cup match between Essex Eagles and Yorkshire Vikings at Cloudfm County Ground in Chelmsford, south-east England. Getty

The Met Office is forecasting a global average temperature of between 1.08°C and 1.32°C, with a central estimate of 1.2°C above what it was in the second half of the 19th century.

Last year, the Met Office predicted 2022’s global temperature rise would be between 0.97°C and 1.21°C above pre-industrial levels, with a central estimate of 1.09°C, while data for the year to October suggest the temperature is about 1.16°C above the pre-industrial era.

Updated: December 20, 2022, 12:01 AM