Global travel risks suffering a major setback if Europe sinks into a recession, a travel expert has said. PA
Global travel risks suffering a major setback if Europe sinks into a recession, a travel expert has said. PA
Global travel risks suffering a major setback if Europe sinks into a recession, a travel expert has said. PA
Global travel risks suffering a major setback if Europe sinks into a recession, a travel expert has said. PA

'Nasty European recession' risks thwarting global travel sector's post-Covid recovery


Laura O'Callaghan
  • English
  • Arabic

The global travel industry’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic risks being upended by a “nasty European recession” looming on the horizon, a tourism expert has said.

Speaking at the World Travel Market in London, Dave Goodger said no region is immune to economic downturn in specific areas of the world.

Britain’s central bank last week said the economy faces it longest recession in 100 years. It predicted the economic downturn that began in the summer could drag on until mid-2024.

The UK’s neighbours are also facing increasing uncertainty amid an energy crisis, rising fuel prices and the war in Ukraine.

Mr Goodger said gas rationing and blackouts across the continent could not be ruled out this winter.

He said such outcomes would have knock-on effects on airlines and tour operators, despite the fact that some countries have “managed to build up a gas storage”.

“It would be primarily felt in Europe,” he told The National.

“Germany and Italy are probably the two biggest gas-importing markets.”

The war in Ukraine has fuelled an energy crisis in Europe, the effects of which are felt farther afield. AP
The war in Ukraine has fuelled an energy crisis in Europe, the effects of which are felt farther afield. AP

“They’ve got policies in place to try and reduce their gas usage by 15 per cent,” he said.

“So with that in place, looking at curves for the normal winter, that should be okay. But if it’s a particularly cold winter, then there could be a situation with all of these reserves really running out. There would need to be rationing. Then you're getting into things such as blackouts, not able to heat homes. That will have a much larger impact.”

He predicted a “nasty European recession” that would force advanced economies across the globe to sink into recession over the next 12 months.

He said the problems facing countries in Europe have been exacerbated by supply chain issues, which were present before Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

The global travel industry’s bid to shake off the pandemic is also being challenged by China’s ongoing restrictive policies, designed to protect the country from the coronavirus.

While Travel Economics had initially expected authorities in Beijing to reopen borders this year, Mr Goodger said it is now more likely to happen in 2023.

The ongoing closure of China is being keenly felt by the Asia Pacific travel market compared to other regions, he said.

The Middle East is leading the pack in the recovery stakes, he noted, partly due to hosting major events that attract international audiences.

The director of Tourism Economics noted how the World Expo in Dubai and the upcoming World Cup in Qatar have offered a major boost to Gulf tourism, the effects of which would be felt for years to come.

“These are big draw factors putting these destinations at the window,” he said.

He said it is typical for regions to reap the “benefits of mega events happening in the years afterwards”.

Despite uncertainty and multiple challenges facing the industry, he struck a positive note on the overall post-pandemic recovery.

“It’s one of the things that's been really striking this year,” he explained. “People want to get out and travel. We're social animals. People want to meet they want to get new experiences. That hasn't changed.

“When people can afford to and are able to, they will travel.”

Tourism Economics, a leading travel research firm, is headquartered in Oxford, UK, and has offices in Dubai, Philadelphia, Buenos Aires among other locations.

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%3Cp%3E1.%20Bhiwadi%2C%20India%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Ghaziabad%2C%20India%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Hotan%2C%20China%0D%3Cbr%3E4.%20Delhi%2C%20India%0D%3Cbr%3E5.%20Jaunpur%2C%20India%0D%3Cbr%3E6.%20Faisalabad%2C%20Pakistan%0D%3Cbr%3E7.%20Noida%2C%20India%0D%3Cbr%3E8.%20Bahawalpur%2C%20Pakistan%0D%3Cbr%3E9.%20Peshawar%2C%20Pakistan%0D%3Cbr%3E10.%20Bagpat%2C%20India%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20IQAir%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Al Jazira's foreign quartet for 2017/18

Romarinho, Brazil

Lassana Diarra, France

Sardor Rashidov, Uzbekistan

Mbark Boussoufa, Morocco

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Stree

Producer: Maddock Films, Jio Movies
Director: Amar Kaushik
Cast: Rajkummar Rao, Shraddha Kapoor, Pankaj Tripathi, Aparshakti Khurana, Abhishek Banerjee
Rating: 3.5

Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption. 

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks. 

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes. 

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion. 

8. Pillar 2 implementation 

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations. 

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity. 

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

Babumoshai Bandookbaaz

Director: Kushan Nandy

Starring: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Bidita Bag, Jatin Goswami

Three stars

The specs: 2018 Infiniti QX80

Price: base / as tested: Dh335,000

Engine: 5.6-litre V8

Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic

Power: 400hp @ 5,800rpm

Torque: 560Nm @ 4,000rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 12.1L / 100km

The BIO:

He became the first Emirati to climb Mount Everest in 2011, from the south section in Nepal

He ascended Mount Everest the next year from the more treacherous north Tibetan side

By 2015, he had completed the Explorers Grand Slam

Last year, he conquered K2, the world’s second-highest mountain located on the Pakistan-Chinese border

He carries dried camel meat, dried dates and a wheat mixture for the final summit push

His new goal is to climb 14 peaks that are more than 8,000 metres above sea level

Tamkeen's offering
  • Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
  • Option 2: 50% across three years
  • Option 3: 30% across five years 
Ahmed Raza

UAE cricket captain

Age: 31

Born: Sharjah

Role: Left-arm spinner

One-day internationals: 31 matches, 35 wickets, average 31.4, economy rate 3.95

T20 internationals: 41 matches, 29 wickets, average 30.3, economy rate 6.28

How the bonus system works

The two riders are among several riders in the UAE to receive the top payment of £10,000 under the Thank You Fund of £16 million (Dh80m), which was announced in conjunction with Deliveroo's £8 billion (Dh40bn) stock market listing earlier this year.

The £10,000 (Dh50,000) payment is made to those riders who have completed the highest number of orders in each market.

There are also riders who will receive payments of £1,000 (Dh5,000) and £500 (Dh2,500).

All riders who have worked with Deliveroo for at least one year and completed 2,000 orders will receive £200 (Dh1,000), the company said when it announced the scheme.

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The Gandhi Murder
  • 71 - Years since the death of MK Gandhi, also christened India's Father of the Nation
  • 34 - Nationalities featured in the film The Gandhi Murder
  • 7 - million dollars, the film's budget 
Leaderboard

63 - Mike Lorenzo-Vera (FRA)

64 - Rory McIlroy (NIR)

66 - Jon Rahm (ESP)

67 - Tom Lewis (ENG), Tommy Fleetwood (ENG)

68 - Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP), Marcus Kinhult (SWE)

69 - Justin Rose (ENG), Thomas Detry (BEL), Francesco Molinari (ITA), Danny Willett (ENG), Li Haotong (CHN), Matthias Schwab (AUT)

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
FIXTURES

Nov 04-05: v Western Australia XI, Perth
Nov 08-11: v Cricket Australia XI, Adelaide
Nov 15-18 v Cricket Australia XI, Townsville (d/n)
Nov 23-27: 1ST TEST v AUSTRALIA, Brisbane
Dec 02-06: 2ND TEST v AUSTRALIA, Adelaide (d/n)
Dec 09-10: v Cricket Australia XI, Perth
Dec 14-18: 3RD TEST v AUSTRALIA, Perth
Dec 26-30 4TH TEST v AUSTRALIA, Melbourne
Jan 04-08: 5TH TEST v AUSTRALIA, Sydney

Note: d/n = day/night

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Founders: Michele Ferrario, Nino Ulsamer and Freddy Lim
Started: established in 2016 and launched in July 2017
Based: Singapore, with offices in the UAE, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand
Sector: FinTech, wealth management
Initial investment: $500,000 in seed round 1 in 2016; $2.2m in seed round 2 in 2017; $5m in series A round in 2018; $12m in series B round in 2019; $16m in series C round in 2020 and $25m in series D round in 2021
Current staff: more than 160 employees
Stage: series D 
Investors: EightRoads Ventures, Square Peg Capital, Sequoia Capital India

MATCH INFO

Fulham 0

Aston Villa 3 (Grealish 4', Hourihane 15', Mings 48')

Man of the match: Jack Grealish (Aston Villa)

MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League last-16, second leg:

Real Madrid 1 (Asensio 70'), Ajax 4 (Ziyech 7', Neres 18', Tadic 62', Schone 72')

Ajax win 5-3 on aggregate

Super Saturday results

4pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 | US$350,000 | (Dirt) | 1,200m
Winner: Drafted, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer).

4.35pm: Al Bastakiya Listed | $300,000 | (D) | 1,900m
Winner: Divine Image, Brett Doyle, Charlie Appleby.

5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Turf Group 3 | $350,000 | (Turf) | 1,200m
Winner: Blue Point, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.

5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 | $350,000 | (D) | 1,600m
Winner: Muntazah, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson.

6.20pm: Dubai City of Gold Group 2 | $300,000 | (T) | 2,410m
Winner: Old Persian, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.

6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 Group 1 | $600,000 | (D) | 2,000m
Winner: Capezzano, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.

7.30pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 | $400,000 | (T) | 1,800m
Winner: Dream Castle, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor.

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UAE%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3EMuhammad%20Waseem%20(captain)%2C%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20Aryan%20Lakra%2C%20Ashwanth%20Valthapa%2C%20Asif%20Khan%2C%20Aryansh%20Sharma%2C%20CP%20Rizwaan%2C%20Hazrat%20Billal%2C%20Junaid%20Siddique%2C%20Karthik%20Meiyappan%2C%20Rohan%20Mustafa%2C%20Vriitya%20Aravind%2C%20Zahoor%20Khan%20and%20Zawar%20Farid.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Avatar: Fire and Ash

Director: James Cameron

Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana

Rating: 4.5/5

Timeline

2012-2015

The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East

May 2017

The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts

September 2021

Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act

October 2021

Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence 

December 2024

Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group

May 2025

The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan

July 2025

The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan

August 2025

Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision

October 2025

Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange

November 2025

180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE

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Updated: November 09, 2022, 10:09 AM