Artificial intelligence and heart traces can predict diabetes and pre-diabetes in patients, preliminary research suggests.
The combination of an algorithm made for individual heartbeats and electrocardiogram (ECG) tracking accurately predicted diabetes patients, a study published in the online journal BMJ Innovations found.
If validated by larger studies, the approach could be used to screen for the disease in low resource settings, the researchers said.
“In theory, our study provides a relatively inexpensive, non-invasive, and accurate alternative [to current diagnostic methods], which can be used as a gatekeeper to effectively detect diabetes and pre-diabetes early in its course,” they said.
“Nevertheless, adoption of this algorithm into routine practice will need robust validation on external, independent data sets.”
About 463 million adults worldwide had diabetes in 2019, and diagnosis relies heavily on the invasive procedure of measuring blood glucose. That is also difficult in low resource regions of the world.
Detecting the disease in its early stages is vital in preventing subsequent serious health problems.
Researchers wanted to see if AI techniques could be used to harness the screening potential of ECG to predict pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes in people at high risk of the disease.
They looked at participants in the Diabetes in Sindhi Families in Nagpur (DISFIN) study, which monitored families at high risk of type 2 diabetes in Nagpur, India.
The prevalence of both type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes was high: about 30 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively.
The prevalence of insulin resistance was also high at 35 per cent — as was the case with other influential coexisting conditions, including high blood pressure, obesity, and disordered blood fats.
A standard 12-lead ECG heart trace lasting 10 seconds was carried out for each of the 1,262 participants. And for each lead, 100 unique structural and functional features were combined for each of the 10,461 single heartbeats recorded to generate the predictive algorithm.
Based on the shape and size of individual heartbeats, the DiaBeats algorithm quickly detected diabetes and pre-diabetes with an overall accuracy of 97 per cent and a precision of 97 per cent. This was irrespective of influential factors, such as age, gender, and coexisting metabolic disorders.
ECG features consistently matched the known biological triggers underpinning cardiac changes that are typical of diabetes and pre-diabetes.
The team acknowledged that the study participants were all at high risk of diabetes and other metabolic disorders, so unlikely to represent the general population.
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
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Fixtures
Tuesday - 5.15pm: Team Lebanon v Alger Corsaires; 8.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Pharaohs
Wednesday - 5.15pm: Pharaohs v Carthage Eagles; 8.30pm: Alger Corsaires v Abu Dhabi Storms
Thursday - 4.30pm: Team Lebanon v Pharaohs; 7.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Carthage Eagles
Friday - 4.30pm: Pharaohs v Alger Corsaires; 7.30pm: Carthage Eagles v Team Lebanon
Saturday - 4.30pm: Carthage Eagles v Alger Corsaires; 7.30pm: Abu Dhabi Storms v Team Lebanon
MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Fixture: Liechtenstein v Italy, Tuesday, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match is shown on BeIN Sports
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
