Russian forces may need to pause in coming weeks and Russian President Vladimir Putin has suffered an “epic fail” in Ukraine, the head of MI6 has said.
Although the war was “obviously not over”, the Russian invaders may be starting “to run out of steam” said Richard Moore, the chief of the UK Secret Intelligence Service, MI6.
“I think he has suffered a strategic failure in Ukraine. It is obviously not over," Mr Moore told the Aspen Security Forum in the US.
“He has obviously made, and the Russian forces have made, some incremental progress over recent weeks and months but it is tiny amounts.
“We are talking about a small number of miles of advance. When they take a town, there is nothing left. It is obliterated.
“And I think they are about to run out of steam. I think our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower over the next few weeks.
“They will have to pause in some way and that will give Ukrainians opportunities to strike back. Their morale is still high. They are starting to receive increasing amounts of good weaponry.”
With winter coming and the pressure on gas supplies, “we are in for a tough time”, said Mr Moore, who believes a Ukrainian fightback could spread benefits across Europe.
“It is important, I think, to the Ukrainians themselves that they demonstrate their ability to strike back," he said. "I think that will be very important for their continuing high morale.
“I also think, to be honest, it will be an important reminder to the rest of Europe that this is a winnable campaign by the Ukrainians.”
Mr Moore said there was no evidence that Mr Putin was suffering from serious ill health and that going into the invasion “the reality of what they were about to encounter was just not being briefed up” to the Russian leader.
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An elderly couple stands near a damaged school in the city of Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine. EPA -
At least one person was killed after shelling hit the school, the Ukrainian State Emergency Service said. EPA -
A woman walks past a destroyed market near a railway station in Donetsk. Reuters -
Municipal workers clean a street in Donetsk. Reuters -
A man passes destroyed buildings in the Ukrainian town of Siversk. AFP -
A destroyed school in Siversk. AFP -
A Ukrainian serviceman passes by destroyed buildings in Siversk. AFP -
A woman's home is repaired by volunteers after being destroyed by shelling in the village of Zalissya. AFP -
People fill up water canisters in Mykolaiv, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. AFP -
Grain fields burn on the outskirts of Kurakhove, Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine. AP Photo -
The mother of Ukrainian serviceman Abdulkarim Gulamov, who was killed in a fight against Russian troops in Kherson, attends his funeral in Kyiv. Reuters -
People carry pictures of Mr Gulamov at the funeral. Reuters -
Ukrainian service members fire a shell from a M777 Howitzer in Kharkiv. Reuters -
A man walks in front of a damaged school after a missile strike hit the city of Kramatorsk. EPA -
A cyclist rides past burnt cars after a Russian rocket strike in Kharkiv. AFP -
Rescuers and servicemen work at a school building damaged by a Russian military strike in Kramatorsk. Reuters -
Sasha, 12, a refugee from Ukraine at the humanitarian aid centre set up at the Global Expo exhibition hall in Warsaw, Poland. AFP -
Maksym and Andrii, 11-year-old boys, play with plastic guns at a self-made checkpoint along a motorway in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. AP -
A Ukrainian soldier nicknamed 'Oakland' guards his position at the front line in the Kharkiv region. AP -
Ukrainians look at destroyed Russian military equipment at an outdoor exhibition near the Church of the Three Saints in Kyiv. AFP -
A member of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) militia sits in a makeshift bunker near Avdiivka, in the Donbas region of Ukraine. EPA -
A DPR militia member monitors a section of the road near Avdiivka. EPA -
Ukrainians pass a heavily damaged shopping mall in the city of Kherson. AFP -
The rubble of a house in Moshchun village, about 20 kilometres outside Kyiv. EPA -
A resident helps a firefighter put out a fire after an air strike in the town of Bakhmut, in the breakaway enclave of Donetsk. AFP -
A woman surveys the devastation caused by an air strike in Bakhmut. AFP -
Part of a projectile fire by a rocket launcher lies embedded in a wheat field in Ukraine's Kharkiv region. AFP -
Members of the public look at a Ukrainian tank destroyed in a Russian attack, in Hostomel, north-west of Kyiv. EPA -
Burnt out cars destroyed in Russian attacks are piled up in Hostomel. EPA -
Jill Biden, US first lady, left, and US President Joe Biden welcome the first lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska, to the White House. EPA -
Miami District Two commissioner Ken Russell, left, and Miami police chief Manuel Morales with weapons collected in the Guns 4 Ukraine initiative, at Miami City Hall in Florida. Guns bought back by Miami will be delivered to sister city Irpin, near Kyiv. EPA -
A Ukrainian serviceman stands next to a Grad BM-21 multiple rocket launcher at the front line in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. AFP -
A woman walks her dog in front of a block of flats hit by shelling in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine. EPA -
A Kramatorsk resident peers out of a window lined with tape to reduce the impact of shattering glass. EPA -
The damaged windows of an apartment, after shells hit a residential area in Kramatorsk. EPA -
Rescuers working on a residential building partially destroyed by missile strike in Bashtanka, Mykolaiv as the Russian war in Ukraine continues. AFP -
An Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicle lies by the roadside, having been destroyed by Russian forces in Ukraine. AFP
The invasion has prompted widespread sanctions against the Russian regime.
Mr Moore said the “pretty concerted effort” against Russia has led to the expulsion of “something roughly north of 400” intelligence officers who were operating under diplomatic cover.
“We reckon in the UK that has probably reduced their ability to do their business to spy for Russian in Europe by half,” he said.
Mr Moore thinks “it is too early to tell what lessons they [China] will draw from Putin’s misadventures in Ukraine” but China’s President “Xi Jinping is watching this like a hawk”.
This makes it “essential” that “we tough it out on Ukraine”, keep going through this winter and help the Ukrainians to win and negotiate from a position of significant strength, he said.
Russia and China are said to have a relationship that is based on the idea of “no limits”, the conference heard.
Despite being “quite conservative about military assistance”, the Chinese are helping the Russians with Ukraine by buying their oil, Mr Moore said.
“They are right on the front foot of beating the Russian drum and selling the Russian narrative around Ukraine, and doing it without any sense of irony …" he said.
“It feels pretty tight but it is not an equal partnership. Ukraine has made it less equal.
“Moscow is very much the junior and the Chinese are very much in the driver’s seat.”
The spy chief also voiced doubt that a landmark 2015 nuclear accord with Iran can be revived, saying Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remained opposed despite marathon diplomacy with the United States.
"If we can get a deal it's probably the best means still available to constrain the Iranian nuclear program. I'm not convinced we're going to get there," said the MI6 chief.
"I don't think the supreme leader of Iran wants to cut a deal. The Iranians won't want to end the talks either so they could run on for a bit," Mr Moore said in a live interview in the US state of Colorado, in what was billed as his first public speaking appearance abroad.
