People rally in Los Angeles in support of Ukraine and calling for Russia’s invasion of its neighbour to end. Reuters
People rally in Los Angeles in support of Ukraine and calling for Russia’s invasion of its neighbour to end. Reuters
People rally in Los Angeles in support of Ukraine and calling for Russia’s invasion of its neighbour to end. Reuters
People rally in Los Angeles in support of Ukraine and calling for Russia’s invasion of its neighbour to end. Reuters

How will Russia’s war in Ukraine end?


Thomas Harding
  • English
  • Arabic

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has clearly failed to be the swift conquest envisaged by President Vladimir Putin.

His troops, more than 7,000 of whom have died, remain mired in battles almost a month into the conflict. With more than 20,000 soldiers wounded and hundreds of vehicles destroyed, Mr Putin’s grand plans have stalled.

There may now be an effort to withdraw in a way that minimises the humiliation of Russia’s leader. He could also gamble on a renewed push for a swift conquest, or settle into a long war of bombardment and siege.

Peace deal

Negotiations are continuing. The most optimistic scenario could culminate in a deal in which Ukraine agrees to repeal its constitutional commitment to joining Nato.

It would also accept that territory annexed in 2014 – the separatist areas Crimea and Donbas – would be attached to Russia. In exchange, Moscow would withdraw all its troops to pre-invasion positions and end the fighting. Despite calls for compensation for the huge damage Russia has caused, it would fall on Ukraine’s friends and allies to pay the reconstruction bill, estimated at $500 billion.

Though this would be a clear defeat for all of Mr Putin’s war aims, he would still be able to contrive it as a victory by denying Ukraine’s Nato application and the formal acceptance of seized territories. He would also seek the lifting of some sanctions so this too could be conjured as a triumph.

It is possible that Ukraine would still be able to apply to join the EU but it would want copper-bottomed guarantees from allies for its future security if it rejects the Nato route.

Ukraine divided

Despite suffering setbacks and substantial losses in the past month, Russia is now fighting the war with a slow but methodical approach of heavy bombardment and steady advance.

It could soon take the key port of Mariupol, establishing a contiguous land bridge from Russia to the Crimea – one of Mr Putin’s core war aims.

Moscow could also break through from the east, taking Kharkiv and pushing out from Donbas, forcing Ukrainian forces to beyond the River Dnieper that runs from north to south.

Protesters at an anti-war demonstration in Hamburg on Sunday as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues. Reuters
Protesters at an anti-war demonstration in Hamburg on Sunday as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues. Reuters

With the capital Kyiv looking increasingly resilient and difficult to take, and his troops exhausted, Mr Putin might choose to end the war there. Essentially, there would be an east and west Ukraine, perhaps similar to Korea’s division after the armistice reached in 1953.

But a western-backed insurgency would be launched with equipment far more sophisticated than that used by the Taliban to defeat US-backed forces in Afghanistan.

Russia could retaliate by attacking military supply convoys and stepping up its campaign of cyber warfare. But that could bring escalation, with heavy counter-cyber strikes by America and Britain that have to date not be used.

Long war

Progress by Russia’s military has been slow, ponderous and inept. But Moscow’s commanders have learnt some tough lessons and will now methodically apply pressure on Ukraine’s military.

It will use massed artillery and its air force to pummel Ukraine’s strongholds into submission before moving ground troops in. It could be very much a repeat of the grim, bitter fighting that levelled Grozny in Chechnya.

Ukraine probably lacks the personnel and equipment to launch major counter-attacks, making it near impossible to force Russia out.

  • Firefighters put out a major blaze caused by Russian shelling at a food warehouse in Severodonetsk, a city in eastern Ukraine's Luhansk region. AFP
    Firefighters put out a major blaze caused by Russian shelling at a food warehouse in Severodonetsk, a city in eastern Ukraine's Luhansk region. AFP
  • Irina Zubchenko walks her dog Max amid the destruction caused by the shelling of a shopping center in Kyiv. AP
    Irina Zubchenko walks her dog Max amid the destruction caused by the shelling of a shopping center in Kyiv. AP
  • Ukrainian refugee Masha, 6, plays at the border crossing in Budomierz, Poland. Reuters
    Ukrainian refugee Masha, 6, plays at the border crossing in Budomierz, Poland. Reuters
  • A charred Russian armoured personnel carrier on the front line in the Kyiv region. Reuters
    A charred Russian armoured personnel carrier on the front line in the Kyiv region. Reuters
  • A volunteer takes position at a checkpoint in a district of Kyiv as Russian forces try to encircle the Ukrainian capital. AFP
    A volunteer takes position at a checkpoint in a district of Kyiv as Russian forces try to encircle the Ukrainian capital. AFP
  • Residents of Kyiv retrieve belongings from their homes in a five-storey residential building that partially collapsed after shelling by Russian artillery. AFP
    Residents of Kyiv retrieve belongings from their homes in a five-storey residential building that partially collapsed after shelling by Russian artillery. AFP
  • Police officers in Moscow detain a woman as she protests against Russia's invasion of Ukraine. AFP
    Police officers in Moscow detain a woman as she protests against Russia's invasion of Ukraine. AFP
  • A resident of the village of Krasylivka after Russian bombardment, part of Moscow's effort to move on Kyiv. AFP
    A resident of the village of Krasylivka after Russian bombardment, part of Moscow's effort to move on Kyiv. AFP
  • Tetiana Chornovol, a former Ukrainian MP, prepares to take position with an anti-tank missile on the front line in the Kyiv region. Reuters
    Tetiana Chornovol, a former Ukrainian MP, prepares to take position with an anti-tank missile on the front line in the Kyiv region. Reuters
  • A rescue worker at a shopping mall in Kyiv after a Russian air strike. Reuters
    A rescue worker at a shopping mall in Kyiv after a Russian air strike. Reuters
  • Ukrainian firefighters rescue a person buried beneath rubble after an explosion at a shopping centre in Kyiv. Reuters
    Ukrainian firefighters rescue a person buried beneath rubble after an explosion at a shopping centre in Kyiv. Reuters
  • Ukrainian police officers stand near a warehouse that was hit by the debris of a downed rocket in Kyiv. AFP
    Ukrainian police officers stand near a warehouse that was hit by the debris of a downed rocket in Kyiv. AFP
  • Graves are dug in a street in the besieged southern port city of Mariupol. Reuters
    Graves are dug in a street in the besieged southern port city of Mariupol. Reuters
  • Pro-Russia militia fighters travel by tank to the outskirts of Mariupol. Reuters
    Pro-Russia militia fighters travel by tank to the outskirts of Mariupol. Reuters
  • Milana, 6, who is recovering from leg wounds sustained when a Russian rocket hit her house on February 28, killing her mother, watches volunteers dressed as clowns at a children's hospital in Kyiv. Getty
    Milana, 6, who is recovering from leg wounds sustained when a Russian rocket hit her house on February 28, killing her mother, watches volunteers dressed as clowns at a children's hospital in Kyiv. Getty
  • Tetyana and other residents wait in Kyiv, after being relocated from Irpin town. EPA
    Tetyana and other residents wait in Kyiv, after being relocated from Irpin town. EPA
  • Rescuers carry a Ukrainian soldier saved after 30 hours trapped in the wreckage of a military school hit by Russian rockets, in Mykolaiv. AFP
    Rescuers carry a Ukrainian soldier saved after 30 hours trapped in the wreckage of a military school hit by Russian rockets, in Mykolaiv. AFP
  • A Ukrainian refugee arrives with her dog at the reception centre about three kilometres from the Moldova-Ukraine border. EPA
    A Ukrainian refugee arrives with her dog at the reception centre about three kilometres from the Moldova-Ukraine border. EPA
  • Volunteers in Kyiv prepare packages with food and other goods for Ukrainian soldiers and civilians in cities across the country. EPA
    Volunteers in Kyiv prepare packages with food and other goods for Ukrainian soldiers and civilians in cities across the country. EPA
  • Residents walk between damaged residential buildings in Mariupol. Reuters
    Residents walk between damaged residential buildings in Mariupol. Reuters
  • Participants illuminate the Ernst Happel Stadium in Vienna with the lights of their smartphones, during the charity concert We Stand with Ukraine. AFP
    Participants illuminate the Ernst Happel Stadium in Vienna with the lights of their smartphones, during the charity concert We Stand with Ukraine. AFP
  • Yana Hladiychuk of Ukraine with a "Stop War" message on her face after the women's pole vault, on the second day of the World Athletics Indoor Championships in Belgrade. Getty
    Yana Hladiychuk of Ukraine with a "Stop War" message on her face after the women's pole vault, on the second day of the World Athletics Indoor Championships in Belgrade. Getty
  • An Ukrainian girl in tears after crossing the border in Siret, northern Romania. AFP
    An Ukrainian girl in tears after crossing the border in Siret, northern Romania. AFP
  • A satellite image shows the aftermath of the Russian air strike on the Mariupol Drama Theatre. EPA/Maxar Technologies
    A satellite image shows the aftermath of the Russian air strike on the Mariupol Drama Theatre. EPA/Maxar Technologies
  • A woman takes cover in a military trench as a Russian jet fighter flies overhead, near the military school hit by Russian rockets the day before, in Mykolaiv. AFP
    A woman takes cover in a military trench as a Russian jet fighter flies overhead, near the military school hit by Russian rockets the day before, in Mykolaiv. AFP
  • A man walks amid debris in front of a Kyiv residential apartment complex that was heavily damaged by a Russian attack on March 18. Getty
    A man walks amid debris in front of a Kyiv residential apartment complex that was heavily damaged by a Russian attack on March 18. Getty
  • Residents carry water from a food warehouse, which is under the control of the breakaway Donetsk People's Republic, on the outskirts of Mariupol. AP
    Residents carry water from a food warehouse, which is under the control of the breakaway Donetsk People's Republic, on the outskirts of Mariupol. AP
  • Rescuers work at the site of the National Academy of State Administration building damaged by shelling in Kharkiv. AP
    Rescuers work at the site of the National Academy of State Administration building damaged by shelling in Kharkiv. AP
  • A satellite image shows artillery strikes and burning fields in Chernihiv. AP / Maxar Technologies
    A satellite image shows artillery strikes and burning fields in Chernihiv. AP / Maxar Technologies
  • A resident assesses her damaged flat in Mariupol. Reuters
    A resident assesses her damaged flat in Mariupol. Reuters
  • Kyiv's mayor Vitali Klitschko keeps people away from a five-storey residential building that partially collapsed after shelling on March 18. AFP
    Kyiv's mayor Vitali Klitschko keeps people away from a five-storey residential building that partially collapsed after shelling on March 18. AFP
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses crowds at a concert in Moscow to mark the eighth anniversary of the annexation of Crimea. AP
    Russian President Vladimir Putin addresses crowds at a concert in Moscow to mark the eighth anniversary of the annexation of Crimea. AP
  • Ukrainian policemen secure a residential area in Kyiv. Sergei Supinsky
    Ukrainian policemen secure a residential area in Kyiv. Sergei Supinsky
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. AP
    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. AP
  • A cloud of smoke rises after an explosion in Lviv, western Ukraine, on March 18. AP
    A cloud of smoke rises after an explosion in Lviv, western Ukraine, on March 18. AP
  • Zinaida Pivtsova, 75, who fled the war in Ukraine, takes shelter in a sports stadium in Przemysl, south-east Poland. AP
    Zinaida Pivtsova, 75, who fled the war in Ukraine, takes shelter in a sports stadium in Przemysl, south-east Poland. AP
  • A police officer at abandoned residential buildings in Kyiv. AP
    A police officer at abandoned residential buildings in Kyiv. AP
  • Inside a shell-damaged school in Kyiv. AP
    Inside a shell-damaged school in Kyiv. AP
  • A woman cries before starting to clean the site where a bomb damaged residential buildings in Kyiv. AP Photo / Rodrigo Abd
    A woman cries before starting to clean the site where a bomb damaged residential buildings in Kyiv. AP Photo / Rodrigo Abd
  • A woman from Ukraine sits in a car with her children as a volunteer takes them to a hostel in Budapest, Hungary. AP
    A woman from Ukraine sits in a car with her children as a volunteer takes them to a hostel in Budapest, Hungary. AP
  • An abandoned flat in Kyiv. AP
    An abandoned flat in Kyiv. AP
  • A man removes a curtain inside a school in Kyiv. AP
    A man removes a curtain inside a school in Kyiv. AP
  • A worker sets up a billboard with the colours of the Ukrainian flag in Novoiavorisk, near Lviv. AP
    A worker sets up a billboard with the colours of the Ukrainian flag in Novoiavorisk, near Lviv. AP
  • Olga plays with her daughter Vedeneya in an empty park in Kyiv. AP
    Olga plays with her daughter Vedeneya in an empty park in Kyiv. AP

Both sides could slug it out over the summer months, always with the potential that the war might escalate sharply with the use of chemical weapons or the unlikely, but possible, nuclear strike.

Sanctions will begin to have significant effects on the Russian economy, potentially turning popular opinion against Mr Putin and resulting in his downfall. But that could well be wishful thinking and the war might simply grind on and on, with the West gradually losing interest while Russia holds its gains.

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20myZoi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Syed%20Ali%2C%20Christian%20Buchholz%2C%20Shanawaz%20Rouf%2C%20Arsalan%20Siddiqui%2C%20Nabid%20Hassan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2037%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Initial%20undisclosed%20funding%20from%20SC%20Ventures%3B%20second%20round%20of%20funding%20totalling%20%2414%20million%20from%20a%20consortium%20of%20SBI%2C%20a%20Japanese%20VC%20firm%2C%20and%20SC%20Venture%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption. 

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks. 

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes. 

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion. 

8. Pillar 2 implementation 

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations. 

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity. 

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

Our legal columnist

Name: Yousef Al Bahar

Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994

Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers

BRAZIL SQUAD

Alisson (Liverpool), Daniel Fuzato (Roma), Ederson (Man City); Alex Sandro (Juventus), Danilo (Juventus), Eder Militao (Real Madrid), Emerson (Real Betis), Felipe (Atletico Madrid), Marquinhos (PSG), Renan Lodi (Atletico Madrid), Thiago Silva (PSG); Arthur (Barcelona), Casemiro (Real Madrid), Douglas Luiz (Aston Villa), Fabinho (Liverpool), Lucas Paqueta (AC Milan), Philippe Coutinho (Bayern Munich); David Neres (Ajax), Gabriel Jesus (Man City), Richarlison (Everton), Roberto Firmino (Liverpool), Rodrygo (Real Madrid), Willian (Chelsea).

Updated: March 21, 2022, 8:31 AM