The scene in the Black Sea port of Poti yesterday had the stamp of a Cold War confrontation. The flagship of the US Mediterranean fleet, the USS Mount Whitney, docked at the Georgian port in full sight of an encampment of suspicious Russian soldiers. The Mount Whitney is said to be the most sophisticated ship ever built by the US navy, with unparalleled command, control and intelligence capabilities. Its declared mission is to deliver aid to victims of last month's five-day war between Russia and the US-trained Georgian army. But its presence off the coast of Georgia sparked protests from Moscow that it was there to spy and supply arms. Dmitri Medvedev, the Russian president, said yesterday: "It would be interesting to note their reaction if we used our fleet to deliver humanitarian aid to the Caribbean countries who have been hit by hurricanes." A spokesman for the US state department said the ship was delivering "blankets, juice, diapers and hygiene kits" - a statement mockingly reported on Russian websites as "America delivers Pampers to Georgia". It has taken the United States almost a full month to make even a small show of force towards its protege in the Caucasus, Mikheil Saakashvili, the Georgian president. The Mount Whitney is the first US ship to dock at Poti, which was bombed and partially looted by Russian forces. Despite their protests, the Russians have noted that Washington has so far held back from sending military aid to rebuild the crushed Georgian army. In fact, far from rushing to a new Cold War, as was loudly proclaimed at the start of the conflict, the two sides have toned down the rhetoric. The crisis is far from over. Russian troops still occupy swathes of Georgia outside the disputed areas of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which the Kremlin has recognised as independent. Despite four promises from Mr Medvedev to withdraw to the positions of Aug 7, when the war broke out, the Russian military is showing no signs of retreating.
According to James Sherr, head of the Russia and Eurasia programme at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, the West needs a complete rethinking of its Russian policy after its initial defeat in Georgia. "We need to be looking at a whole new structure of thinking and policy. The only way you will get the Russians to pay attention is to make them understand that, however successful they are now, they need to think about reactions tomorrow and the day after." The West is likely to be cautious because Russia's ambitions seem driven more by injured pride than clear-eyed goals. "We are looking at a policy which is the product not primarily of a set of strategic objectives but of a mood - and a very dangerous mood," Mr Sherr said. The first test of whether the Kremlin takes the West seriously will come tomorrow when Nicolas Sarkozy, who, as the president of France, holds the rotating presidency of the European Union and who brokered the ceasefire that stopped the fighting, returns to Moscow. Even before he has set off, there is little optimism among EU officials of a breakthrough. The early honours in the conflict have gone to Russia. It has successfully exploited differences between the US and Europe and within the European Union, which relies on Russia for 40 per cent of its energy supplies. A flag-waving visit to the region by Dick Cheney, the US vice president, proved low key, reflecting the lame-duck status of the Bush administration. In Ukraine, the strategically vital country through which most Russian gas supplies to Europe pass, Mr Cheney's visit was overshadowed by the breakdown of the ruling coalition. The dysfunctional political couple who led the Orange Revolution of 2004 - Victor Yushchenko, the president, and Yulia Tymoshenko, the prime minister - fell out again last week, apparently terminally, after Mrs Tymoshenko refused to denounce the Russian assault on the Georgian army. For political analysts in Kiev, the reasons for the breakdown are clear. Mrs Tymoshenko plans to stand in the presidential elections in 2010 with Russian support. Thus the country that acts as the fulcrum of East-West relations in Europe could move from a strongly pro-western position to one that acknowledges Russia's interests in its affairs. In Ukraine, Mr Cheney could say little beyond appealing for the leadership to unite. Not surprisingly, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, was not moved by Mr Cheney's visit. "These are not the strongest words I have heard from the US," he said. But not all is going Russia's way. Its sudden recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia has not been followed by any other state so far, with the possible exception of Nicaragua. China last week joined Central Asian states, which Russia regards as an area of "privileged interest", in ignoring Russia's plea to recognise the two territories. Critics of the Kremlin have raised the alarm over the economic effects of Russia's international isolation. Anders Aslund, one the architects of Russia's transformation to a market economy in the 1990s and no friend of Vladimir Putin's, the former president and now prime minister, wrote last week in The Moscow Times that the economy was now bound to falter. "August 8 stands out as a fateful day for Russia," he wrote. "In one blow Putin wiped out half a trillion dollars of stock market value, stalled all domestic reforms and isolated Russia from the outside world." Over the past month billions of dollars of capital have been withdrawn from Russia - US$20 billion (Dh73bn) according to unofficial estimates - as investors re-evaluated the risk of doing business there. The Russian government sees this as an overreaction, more connected to the falling oil price and the general world downturn than to events in the Caucasus. Russia claims not to be worried about its lack of friends abroad. Mr Putin is a follower of Machiavelli, the Italian political philosopher, who declared: "It is much safer to be feared than loved." The Kremlin hopes that the new sense of respect instilled in Russia's neighbours will ensure that they are wary of relying on the US for protection - particularly if all Washington has to offer is "Pampers diplomacy". The West will no doubt take months to respond, waiting until the new US administration takes over and works out a foreign policy. Relations with Russia have changed for ever, but for the moment it looks less like a Cold War and more like a waiting game. aphilps@thenational.ae
