Russia tries to re-establish regional authority with Syria strikes

Internationally isolated Vladimir Putin is bombing rebels in Syria as part of a cunning realpolitik move aimed at saving its last foothold in the Middle East.

Russian pilots check their SU-34 bomber before taking off from the Syrian Hmeymim airbase, outside the province of Latakia, in this handout photo dated October 3, 2015. Russian Defence Ministry Press Service/Handout/EPAShow less

BEIRUT // Since the end of the Cold War, Moscow’s allies in the Middle East have steadily disappeared, along with much of Russia’s influence in this strategic corner of the world.

Saddam Hussein, formerly the leader of long-standing Russian partner Iraq, met his end at the gallows nine years ago.

Then in 2011, Libyan rebels dragged Muammar Qaddafi – whose demise cost Moscow billions of dollars in arms deals – out of a drainage pipe in his hometown of Sirte and unceremoniously shot him in the head

And Yemen, where the Soviets had propped up a communist state in the south, unified in 1990 and drew closer to the West before unravelling into revolution, coup and war.

“Saddam Hussein – hanged. Is Iraq a better place, a safer place?” Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said last week as he defended the air strikes in Syria that the Kremlin began on September 30. “Qaddafi murdered – you know, in front of viewers. Is Libya a better place?”

But in Syria, in part thanks to backing from Russia and Iran, president Bashar Al Assad remained in power.

Now, Russian president Vladimir Putin, internationally isolated following his 2013 invasion of Crimea, is bombing rebels in Syria as part of a cunning realpolitik move aimed at re-establishing Moscow as a global power broker, along with saving its last foothold in the Middle East. The move comes after a US-led coalition against ISIL has failed to defeat the group in Iraq and Syria.

“Syria was the last part of the Middle East where Russia had influence”, said Bassam Barabandi, a former Syrian diplomat who defected in 2013. “If they lose Syria to any other country – Iran, Turkey or the United States – that means they are out of the Middle East for God knows how long.”

When Russia began bombing Syrian rebels and ISIL targets in Syria, it was the first time since the Cold War and the 1979 invasion of Afghanistan that Russia had flexed its military might beyond the boundaries of its former Soviet empire.

In the Middle East over the last three decades “they [Russia] almost disappeared, except for in Syria,” said Robert Ford, the US ambassador to Syria from 2011 to 2014 and currently a senior fellow at Washington’s Middle East Institute. “Now I think Putin is trying to raise the Russian flag again. I’m not sure how successful he’ll be, but he’s trying.”

“At a global level, its engagement in the Middle East is in many ways a protection of its strive for “great power” status,” said Maxim Suchkov, a visiting fellow at New York University’s Jordan Centre for Advanced Study of Russia. “It is clear that the Kremlin sees it has enough power, capability and will to act like one. It also believes – rightfully or not – that it can act as a stabilising force in the situation when no one else is serious in taking the leadership.”

Russia’s stab at asserting itself comes at a time when US and Western diplomatic efforts have failed to resolve Syria’s war and hundreds of thousands of refugees are fleeing for Europe from the Middle East. US attempts to intervene in Syria – from its bombing campaign against ISIL to its small-scale train and equip programme for moderate, vetted Syrian rebels – have been regarded as a failure by many. To Russia, the US floundering was seen as weakness and an opening to exploit.

“When Putin saw Obama draw a red line in Syria [over the use of chemical weapons] and didn’t enforce it, it was a very clear signal to him that we may say one thing but we don’t stand by our word,” said Anna Borshchevskaya, a specialist on Russia’s Middle East policy at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “We [the US] don’t really have a clear policy. We’ve largely retreated from the region. As long as we have no clear policy, as long as we remain ambivalent, Russia is going to keep gaining more influence.”

Increased Ties

This is not the first time in the post-Arab Spring Middle East that Moscow has sought to displace the US regional role and try to show that siding with Russia is better than siding with the Americans.

Last year, amid worsening relations between Cairo and its long-standing ally Washington, Egypt signed a US$3.5 billion (Dh14.5bn) weapons deal with Russia.

“I think Putin understands that other countries look at the United States and are not sure of American credibility with respect to long term engagement,” said Mr Ford, the former US ambassador to Damascus. “I think Putin is trying to show that he is a reliable ally to his friends.”

Russia has also sought to increase ties with Gulf Arab states. Before the intervention in Syria began, Mr Putin called Saudi Arabia’s King Salman late last month to try and assure him over Moscow’s intentions. Senior Gulf leaders are set to meet Mr Putin in Russia “in the near future”, according to Russia’s ambassador to the UAE, Alexander Efimov.

“We are going to explain to them what we are doing and that they have nothing to be afraid of,” Mr Efimov said. “We are acting to support regional stability and peace; we are fighting terrorists, in favour of those countries.”

Most observers in the Gulf and in the West do not buy this explanation, and it is widely accepted that preserving the regime is Russia’s goal.

Gulf Arab countries most closely involved in backing rebels fighting pro-regime forces and ISIL extremists – Saudi Arabia, Qatar and, to a lesser extent, the UAE – have over the past two years sought to increase ties with Moscow. This is in part an attempt to gain leverage with Russia and try to influence its position on Mr Al Assad. Riyadh and Doha still maintain that his departure is a key condition to a political settlement and Moscow was perceived by some observers as more willing to consider a compromise position than Tehran, Mr Al Assad’s other key backer.

Solution or Escalation?

Despite the obvious opposition to Mr Al Assad’s future in Syria, some analysts believe that Russia’s intervention could push Gulf Arab states and the US to finally find a solution to the Syrian war.

“I think Russia’s calculation is that by acting fast and boldly in Syria it will force the US and the GCC to speak to Moscow rather than alienate them,” said Yury Barmin, a Moscow-based analyst of Russia-Gulf relations who is close to the Kremlin. “It clearly worked with the US, but not yet with the GCC.”

However, Gulf officials still do not know what Mr Putin’s true goals are and where points of common interest may be found.

“We are all in the dark as to what the Russians are up to and what Putin’s plan really is,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdullah, a professor of political science at UAE University.

Many analysts believe that Russian air strikes on rebels backed by western and Gulf countries could also lead to an escalation of the proxy war in Syria and inflame the sectarianism that has in part fuelled ISIL.

During Mr Lavrov's meeting with GCC counterparts on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last week, Arab diplomats warned him that Russia's gamble in Syria would create a "Frankenstein's monster" of even more extremist fighters from around the region and world bent on fighting Russia, Iran, Syria and the many Shiite militias fighting for the regime, a senior Gulf official told reporters in London, according to the BBC.

If this happens, Russia-GCC ties would be severely strained. “I see the GCC-Russian relationship damaged more permanently,” said Christian Koch, director of the Gulf Research Center Foundation in Geneva.

Still, Mr Putin may be hoping that a number of regional factors may have opened a window for a shift in Gulf capitals, towards the Russian position of a political transition in Syria after defeating ISIL. But this will only happen if Mr Putin can convince Gulf leaders Iran will be pushed back.

But for now, publicly at least, Russian officials maintain that they hope to be a mediator between the Arab Gulf countries and Iran, and that their new role in Syria will help lead to a ratcheting down of tensions between the rivals – an argument they will find difficult to make to Gulf officials.

“The thing that most of the Arab Gulf states believe is that this move is going to prolong the violence,” said Mr Abdullah. “I don’t think this Russian intervention is going to get us any closer to a political solution.”