Renewed tensions with Qatar arise from old, unresolved issues

Doha's refusal to stand clearly with GCC allies on key policies such as confronting Iran and countering terrorism and extremism could now undermine the bloc's most important relationship, experts say.

Palestinian militants of the Hamas movement take part in a rally in Gaza city. Mohammed Abed / AFP / November 25, 2016

Abu Dhabi // The dramatic reopening of the political schism within the GCC was triggered by statements attributed to Qatar’s emir, but the episode has made clear that underlying tensions were never resolved.

They have erupted again, observers say, for a variety of reasons that mostly stem from a renewed alignment between Donald Trump’s administration and Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, one that leaves Qatar facing, for now, a stark choice.

“This appears to be about long-standing rifts regarding comfort with both Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood and other entities such as Hamas,” said a Gulf-based diplomat.

“Saudi Arabia and the UAE likely want the GCC to speak with one voice on what they see as an Iranian threat growing in confidence on one border, and an interspersed threat from radical political and military organisations using a self-serving interpretation of Islam to gain power,” the diplomat added.

In 2014, when the first, and unprecedented, public fissure opened between Qatar, on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE on the other, over similar issues, Doha eventually agreed to a settlement reported to include a promise to drop support for Muslim Brotherhood groups.

The emir, Sheikh Tamim, also moved closer to Riyadh on support for rebels in Syria. This continued when the newly enthroned King Salman sought to unify Arab partners to face the challenge posed by Iran.

With the new White House, however, ambiguity on the three major areas of cooperation with Gulf partners – countering extremism and fighting terrorist groups, confronting Iran’s push for regional power, and brokering a peace deal between Palestinians and Israel – would have the potential to seriously undermine their most important relationship.

While Saudi Arabia has moved in line with Mr Trump’s agenda, and the UAE is already considered a key security partner that shares Washington’s hostility to Islamist groups, Doha has sought to maintain its stance on all three issues.

On Iran, Qatar is more closely aligned with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, and has still not sent its ambassador back to Tehran after attacks on Saudi diplomatic facilities in the country. Though perhaps because of a shared giant gasfield, it has also called for a less bellicose approach.

But it still maintains support for Islamist groups, and insiders in the kingdom said Sheikh Tamim’s refusal to cut ties with Hamas – which attempted to rebrand itself in Doha last month – was one of the key causes for the badly frayed ties.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, met Mr Trump and his national security team at the White House to help prepare for the Riyadh summit, and it is clear that the president and his son-in-law and top foreign policy adviser, Jared Kushner, see many of the key issues in the region in a similar light as the UAE.

With this backing, and the hugely positive atmosphere around Mr Trump’s visit to Riyadh, the trip “was a signal in a sense that the UAE and Saudis can become much more assertive in their own regional politics” as they also cooperate more closely with Washington, said Kristian Ulrichsen, a GCC politics and security expert at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

Abu Dhabi and Riyadh have “made a decision that this is an opportunity to become much more assertive and really amp up the pressure on Qatar” over its ties to the Brotherhood and position on Iran, he added.

In Washington a growing chorus of voices, mostly from staunchly pro-Israel, anti-Islamist and anti-Iran think tanks, has also been publicly linking Qatar to the funding of militant groups. At an event hosted by the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies think tank just hours before the publication of the alleged statements by Sheikh Tamim, the former US defence secretary Bob Gates said the White House should make clear to Doha that if they do not change their stance the Al Udeid airbase can be relocated.

The base is a headquarters to the US military’s Central Command, where it oversees operations against ISIL and other extremists in the region. It is the key element of Doha’s national security, and any threat by the administration to move it would have seismic affects.

The sentiment has been picked up by Saudi media, with an op-ed in Arab News on Monday calling for the base to be relocated to the kingdom.

Qatar has also come under pressure over its role in Libya. The anti-Islamist commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, whose forces have been fighting militias linked to Doha, said on Monday that Qatar is supporting extremist groups in the country.

Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia want concrete steps from Doha in order to de-escalate, including the shuttering of pro-Brotherhood media outlets.

Kuwait has stepped in to try to mediate, and there were reports on Monday that Sheikh Tamim may travel to meet his Kuwaiti counterpart this week in the efforts to defuse the crisis.