Rebel defeat in east Aleppo grows increasingly certain

The Syrian government's lightning onslaught has led to an exodus of civilians from the rebel-held part of the city, with as many as 13,000 fleeing to Kurdish or government-held territory, Josh Wood reports

A Syrian pro-government fighter stands on top of a building overlooking Aleppo in the city's eastern Bustan Al Basha neighbourhood on November 28, 2016. George Ourfalian/AFP

BEIRUT // A rebel defeat in eastern Aleppo grew increasingly certain on Monday as the Syrian government, allied militias and Kurdish forces seized the entire northern section of the besieged enclave, which represents the rebels’ most important territory and is home to 250,000 civilians.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based opposition monitoring group, said government forces had seized the districts of Sakhour, Haydariya and Sheikh Khodor on Monday, while Kurdish fighters had taken the Sheikh Fares neighbourhood. In all, the rebels have lost roughly a third of their territory in eastern Aleppo over the past few days – land they had controlled for years.

The lightning onslaught has led to an exodus of civilians, with 6,000 civilians fleeing to the Kurdish-controlled neighbourhood of Sheikh Maqsoud in northern Aleppo and about 4,000 fleeing to government-held west Aleppo by Sunday night, according to the Observatory. On Monday, Syrian state TV said another 3,000 civilians had fled to government territory.

A contributor to The National based in eastern Aleppo said the rebels had only been able to mount limited resistance against government and Kurdish forces, adding that their rapid losses of territory and men had left them stunned and confused.

“The regime is advancing at every hour, every moment,” he said.

While more than 10,000 eastern Aleppo civilians have streamed into government and Kurdish areas, others are fleeing to the southern part of the rebel-held enclave, trying to get as far away from the government’s offensive as they can. They have arrived carrying what belongings they can manage, living on the street or breaking into abandoned homes to find shelter. There is little respite: air and artillery strikes are constant, food and fuel stocks are exhausted, hospitals destroyed and temperatures now dip to freezing at night as winter grips the city.

Some civilians in homes closer to the advancing front lines have stayed put, hoping to survive the fighting and be rescued by government forces once their neighbourhoods are captured. But given the intensity of the bombardment, this is a risky bet.

During several unilateral ceasefires over the course of the nearly three-month siege, the government offered “humanitarian corridors” through which civilians could flee to government-held areas. But, distrustful of the government and afraid of ongoing fighting, only a handful took advantage of the offer.

Now cold, hungry, staring down death and convinced that the rebels cannot win, civilians are taking any escape that is offered.

The government has sent text messages to east Aleppo residents, telling them that the rebels had abandoned them and promising militants amnesty if they laid down their weapons. As the rebels continue to lose territory to the government and fail to muster an effective fight, it remains to be seen whether they will finally agree to lay down arms or try to reach a deal whereby they will be allowed to leave the city.

On Monday, the Russian defence ministry said more than 100 rebels had surrendered to government forces so far.

Despite the intensity of the latest fighting and the dire humanitarian situation, international responses have been relatively muted as the tide shifted decisively in the Syrian government’s favour. The rebels’ main advocate on the diplomatic stage, the United States, is set on a course to back away from the rebels under the incoming administration of president-elect Donald Trump. In the last weeks of Barack Obama’s presidency, once fervent efforts to force a ceasefire and ultimately a peace in Syria have disappeared.

“With no food going in and people unable to escape, #Assad regime is trying to turn E #Aleppo into a coffin,” Gareth Bayley, the UK’s special representative for Syria, tweeted on Monday.

In Germany, meanwhile, a group of lawyers said they were submitting a criminal complaint against Syria’s president to federal prosecutors, accusing Bashar Al Assad of war crimes in Aleppo.

“We’re experiencing genocide in Aleppo in slow motion,” said attorney Mehmet Daimaguler on Monday.

While a government victory in Aleppo will cement Mr Al Assad’s power and probably make the war unwinnable for Syria’s beaten-down rebels, it does not mean the end of the conflict. Rebel forces continue to hold significant areas of the country, as do Kurdish forces who are unlikely to cede territory to the government despite occasional cooperation with the regime. Foreign actors like Turkey and Qatar continue to back rebel forces in parts of the country, even as other friends of the rebels cut back support.

And there is still the issue of combating ISIL, which also holds large areas of the country.

But few in east Aleppo are thinking of how the war might end. For now, they are focusing on how to stay alive as their already fragile world collapses into chaos.

* With additional reporting by Zouhir Al Shimale in Aleppo, Associated Press and Agence France-Presse