Omar Al Bashir delivers a speech to the nation on February 22, 2019, at the presidential palace in the capital Khartoum. AFP
Omar Al Bashir delivers a speech to the nation on February 22, 2019, at the presidential palace in the capital Khartoum. AFP
Omar Al Bashir delivers a speech to the nation on February 22, 2019, at the presidential palace in the capital Khartoum. AFP
Omar Al Bashir delivers a speech to the nation on February 22, 2019, at the presidential palace in the capital Khartoum. AFP

Sudan's Omar Al Bashir declares state of emergency


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Sudan's Omar Al Bashir has named a new prime minister and first vice president the day after dissolving the government and declaring a year-long state of emergency.

More protests erupted on Saturday as police reportedly fired tear gas at demonstrators who burned tyres and chanted:  "Revolution is the people's choice".

After two months of near-continuous protest against his more than three-decade rule, Mr Al Bashir took the dramatic step of dissolving state and national governments on Friday night.

He chose Mohamed Tahir Ayala, the governor of Gezira state, as his new prime minister and defence minister Awad Mohamed Ahmed Ibn Auf as first vice president.

As well as the state of emergency, Mr Al Bashir also appeared to extend an olive branch to protesters, who took to the streets late last year against price rises and the economic situation. He called on parliament to pause debates over a constitutional amendment that would allow him to seek another term at the 2020 presidential election, but did not elaborate.

"Firm economic measures should be taken in a new government", Mr Al Bashir said, adding that he would assign that task to a qualified team.

"I extend a sincere invitation to the opposition forces, who are still outside the path of national reconciliation ... to move forward and engage in the dialogue regarding the current issues of our country," he said.

Mr Al Bashir then issued a decree to establish a caretaker administration of senior officials from each ministry. He kept the defence, foreign and justice ministers in place.

If his move left any doubt that the president was seeking to consolidate power, he also replaced state governors with military officials.

Until Friday's speech, the country had been locked in political limbo, caught between a weakened leader and a protest movement that, while undiminished after weeks or rallying, has been unable to land a knockout blow to Mr Al Bashir's presidency.

It is not yet clear if the president’s latest move will lead him through the current crisis or galvanise the voices lined up against him and precipitate his departure.

"We are calling on our people to continue with demonstrations until the main aim of this uprising, which is the stepping down of the regime chief, is achieved," said the Sudanese Professionals Association which is spearheading the campaign, just after Mr Al Bashir announced a state of emergency.

The National Consensus Forces, another major opposition group, said the president had declared the state of emergency "to counter our popular revolution that will not stop, God willing, before we achieve our goal and topple the regime”.

Sudanese demonstrators run from a teargas canister fired by riot police in Omdurman, Khartoum on January 20. Reuters
Sudanese demonstrators run from a teargas canister fired by riot police in Omdurman, Khartoum on January 20. Reuters

Demonstrations first erupted on December 19 in the farming town of Atbara, but the rallies swiftly mushroomed into what is probably the most serious threat to the president's 30-year rule.

Sudan's financial woes were long a cause of popular frustration before the anger spilt on to the streets after the government tripled the price of bread.

Soaring inflation, along with acute foreign currency shortages, have battered the economy, especially after the independence of South Sudan in 2011 took away the bulk of oil earnings.

"Our country is suffering from a difficult and complicated situation, the most difficult in its history," said Mr Al Bashir on Friday, dressed in a turban and traditional Sudanese robe, in front of a group of advisers and outgoing ministers.

"The economic issue needs to be tackled by qualified people and for this, I will form a government made of people of quality," he said, without adding when the new government would be announced.

On the streets of Omdurman, crowds chanted "Freedom" and set fire to tyres, while others blocked a main road. But the rally in the twin city of the capital Khartoum was met with a swift response, as tear gas and riot police were used to disperse the crowds.

About 200 protesters had also gathered in Khartoum on Friday evening ahead of Mr Al Bashir’s speech.

Officials say 31 people have died in the protest-related violence, while Human Rights Watch says at least 51 people have been killed, including children. Medical professionals have also told of being targeted by the authorities for treating wounded protesters.

The anti-government movements have drawn in a cross-section of society, including middle-class professionals, agricultural labourers, youths and Mr Bashir's political opponents – with thousands of people rallying across the country on some days.

Sudan's President Omar Al Bashir leaves after delivering a speech at the Presidential Palace in Khartoum, Sudan February 22. Reuters
Sudan's President Omar Al Bashir leaves after delivering a speech at the Presidential Palace in Khartoum, Sudan February 22. Reuters

Only the three conflict zones of Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan have remained largely devoid of mass demonstrations.

Mr Al Bashir, a former army officer, came to power in 1989 after a military coup. He led his Islamist party to victory in the 2010 and 2015 elections after changes in the constitution following a peace agreement with southern rebels, who then seceded to form South Sudan. Both votes were criticised by international observers for rights violations, irregularities and inconsistencies.

Mr Bashir is wanted by the International Criminal Court to face charges of war crimes and genocide arising out of the long-running conflict in Darfur. He denies the charges.

Analysts say that the president has stayed at the top by pitting ally against ally and crushing dissent so that he is the sole arbiter of political power in the government.

Mr Al Bashir will also be acutely aware of Sudan’s history of uprisings – two previous governments have been brought down by mass rallies to be replaced with democratically elected administrations. But then too, these elected governments have, in turn, failed to bring about the desired economic development and been replaced by military administrations – including after Mr Al Bashir’s putsch.

Protest organisers have called on political groups to join their movement by signing a "Document for Freedom and Change".

The text outlines a post-Bashir plan including rebuilding Sudan's justice system and halting the country's dire economic decline, the key reason for the nationwide demonstrations.

Mr Al Bashir has countered the anti-government demonstrations with his own rallies, promising economic development in the country and promoting peace in its war zones.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Family: I am happily married to my wife Liz and we have two children together.

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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